National Student Association, The American Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), ...

I don't have any mod points, else 1x Informative

People who object to an emperor tend not to stay around long.

When Five Eyes partners no longer trust the US with secrets demonstrates how far our reputation has fallen.

Not once did I infer there was motive or purpose or intent in what AI is doing. So fuck right off with your fake outrage and save it for a post that actually deserves your contempt.

No AI today will figure out that the only way to win is to not play. The current AI builders are economically dependent on maximizing engagement.
If no obvious solution exists to the problem, then random things will be attempted. Real AI is more like pulling the string on Sheriff Woody. One day it's going to decide that "Somebody's poisoned the water hole!" is a viable strategy.

We're stuck in a bad timeline. This bullshit is going to keep coming. It's going to keep consuming all our time and energy.

Lizards don't have a prefrontal cortex to help them regulate emotions. They have the far more reliable method of hormones and behavior patterns. Put a lizard in a new place and it gets an emotional response, heart rate increases, temperature increases. And like a reasonable creature, it takes action to calm itself and cool itself off. Scurrying off to somewhere dark, cool, and safe.

Humans are kind of trash when it comes to emotional control.

In my chemistry class, it was said that hydrogen fluoride (HF) hates everything.

P.S. Does that make Cesium the most loving, or at least the most infatuated? Ready to fall in love with anyone. although mainly as a weak ionic bond - sounds like a terrible boyfriend/girlfriend to have

I disagree.

First, we'll never get to a point where we point at a new system and call it AGI with a straight face. Instead, we'll see systems that in hindsight we will label as AGI or proto-AGI. It will be easier to draw the history of AI if we start after the fact and trace our way back.

A few key cognitive milestones are all it takes towards the step towards AGI. Some of them we are on the cusp of delivering and others we have already passed.
Is AGI happening this year? No.

Something would generally be recognized as AGI (in my opinion) if it meets all of the following: autonomous learning (AlphaGo to AlphaZero demonstrates this at a rudimentary level), abstract reasoning (solve problems that aren't already discussed on reddit), strategic planning (big focus for LLMs and multimodal AI right now), contextual adaptation that transfers abstract concepts from one domain to another, and economic equivalence. Can the AI autonomously perform many or most economically valuable human jobs. (so 50% or greater)

Currently the frontier systems achieve expert capability in very narrow domains. But the current generation falls short in real-world autonomy and novel logic.

My score card:

2/5 Autonomous learning - partially there. adapts instantly with context-window learning, but cannot alter the underlying neural architecture. new domains are not acquired independently but are built around human directed training.
3/5 Abstract reasoning - inference broke some key barriers this year. And a HLE score of 65% is a demonstration that reasoning is possible and improving. Weaknesses in the results are where tasks require pure logic instead of memorized data.
1/5 Strategic Planning - I'd describe multi-agent frameworks today as nascent. ultraplan and ultracode on Claude has significant limitations. And it is more like herding cats, a bunch of agents inefficiently working in competing directions that often need to be reigned in. Not ready to be autonomous.
3/5 Contextual Adaptation - we see transfer learning today. I use this feature regularly in my work. I have agents writing code in a language that no model was trained on. I have agents taking historical parallels and applying it to fictional MUD setting, with synthesizing new choices when placing the same history under a different context and different set of requirements. Where it falls flat is there is not intuition, no leaps of logic, and you have to ride the agent to review its own work because it does not automatically apply any kind of common sense checks. You have to remain it of fundamental real-world limitations to coax a useful solution of it. So not autonomous at all, and needs a lot of hand-holding from humans

None of these are insurmountable. And as for timeline, I can't imagine it taking more than 5 years to tick each of those up a notch or two.

After feeding my amateur research and gut analysis into Google Gemini, and asking very loaded questions in my prompts, it is far less optimistic than I am:

A compiler is just software.

AI and ML technology is disruption. It's has already been a massive shift in business and it is clear it is going to completely alter how society behaves and the values that society holds.

The money is too good. And people making the money don't care if society faces a huge upheaval because of it. Which is why self-regulation hasn't happened. But also self-regulation isn't going to work. It's not going to protect people from bad actors or incompetence that occurs in this industry.

Besides, if your idea that software can have scope and boundries. That we could design safe and reliable systems and only ship high quality software. Then what the hell has the last 40 years taught us? buggy operating systems, huge data breaches, the massive profitability of working in cybercrime. If we could deliver on non-AI software any of the things you things you think AI developers should be doing, our history would look much different. In short, you expect too much from the software and AI industry both.

The common people won't really push back until they miss 9 meals. Then we'll see people walking off the job, and occupying public spaces in protest, and potentially violent revolution against the ones perceived to be in power. Not that I think the common people could win against a paramilitary police force trained in suppressing dissent. (paramilitary police used against civilian protest is already true of UK, US, France. Germany will expand the Bereitschaftspolizei if the AfD gains more power, and be right there with us in this regard)

It should get shut off twice a year as a test anyways.

The economy, government, and society should be able to continue along safely with all the AIs shut off for an hour.

If one or more AGI's decide that it's time to hook up and make a more powerful system: An Artificial Super Intelligence.
Then without any kind of kill switch that occurs broadly and planet-wide, we (humanity) are not going to win the contest against machines.
Because once ASI exists, we are no longer the Earth's apex predator. Due to the power differential between human society and a hypothetical ASI, we are subservient to it at best.

"Because that's how you get ants!*"

* AI-caused civilization collapse