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Comment Re:It's not just money (Score 1) 124

Actually you can. The use of power tools doesn't eliminate the possibility of precision. Anyone that's been forcibly subjected to shop class can attest to this.

It's pretty easy to isolate different requirements for different class of operators.

Not that I buy for a minute that any part of a Trump administration gives a sh*t about "the little guy".

Comment Re:Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentage (Score 1) 122

I always provide my managers with confidence interval estimated times

That is a great idea - I did the same thing years ago at a past employer - sadly the manager knew not what to make of it, so I only did it once. It was more accurate than the "real" numbers then ended up going with.

But I think giving a range of timeframes with percentages is probably the best way to go, if you have to give estimates at all...

Comment Re:Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentage (Score 1) 122

That's pretty interesting - I had heard about Fogbugs for years even before StackOverflow but had never used it.

Clocking in and out of a task is annoying, but if you make it easy enough it is not too bad.

Sadly one of the main systems I use at the moment is the execrable TFS, with no change the company will switch from it.

Comment Yes, inherently unpredictable, needs percentages (Score 2) 122

Even with known and well understood languages/technologies/frameworks, you can and will run into glitches that can take days to complete something that was supposed to take hours - or even longer if the developers are not skilled in debugging and isolating problems!

StackOverflow has helped the industry in this regard, because now a lot of times you can reduce some mysterious problem to a fifteen second StackOverflow search which instantly answers the issue. But not always, and there are always issues when actually programming any design that you can uncover hidden flaws and need to correct them.

What I would love to see is some kind of approach that instead of a time estimate, gave a time along with a percentage of confidence. Two different tasks may seem to take about five hours, with one you are 90% sure it can be done in five hours, with another (like brand new code) it can be more of a 50% five hours. Then you could use this percentage to determine the actual areas of coding likely to cause schedule issues and monitor them more closely. The other nice benefit of this approach is that it factors in the actual developer understanding and abilities more than just a straight hour estimate. Maybe you even put a cap on how high a confidence level a developer is allowed to give until they have met given estimates a number of times already...

Coding is a chaotic system, yes, but it's not like it's fully chaotic, and there are patterns within the chaos I think you could determine over time.

Comment Re:literaly a solution (Score 2) 70

Actually, there are not many chemicals that break down plastic. That's why it is such a handy material to make containers from, because it can contain about anything. And that's also why plastic garbage is such a problem. Plastic is mostly destroyed by sunlight and by heat. While the second one goes fast, it is not feasible for the cleanup of whole landscapes (except you want them scorched), the first one is a very slow process.

Comment Re: Could climate science be affected, too? (Score 1) 144

> There were around 2.5 million papers are published in 2015. So if you are going to freak out over this, you're probably the same type of guy who thinks it safer to drive a car than fly somewhere.

If this were a controversy over some regional carrier completely dropping the ball on their maintenance and inspections, then such a conclusion would be entirely warranted. The entire FAA inspection regime would be called into question.

The same is actually true for the USDA if you actually have half a brain cell. Certain foods like chicken should be treated like a deadly biohazard always.

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