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Comment Re:Can't a magic 8 ball replace most CEOs? (Score 1) 280

In my experience with ceo's and senior executives- the "numbers" have a funny habit of changing to match projections. I saw them waste at least 6.5 billion dollars over 5 years in failed project after failed project. All based on unrealistic assumptions. And in every case, the failures were redefined as successes except for the failed SAP rollout.

A large corporation can cover some terrible errors and CEO's (and executives) are paid for changing things- not for running them well as they are. So you can have a good business practice and it will be removed and replaced with something else which is much, much worse.

If the change works- yea! Big bonus for the CEO and/or executives. If it fails- yea! Big golden parachute. If it's in the muddy middle- there will be a lot of pressure to say the change worked. Because deadlines, definitions- sometimes reality- is subject to intense pressure and manipulation to say the change worked.

Actual reality doesn't set in until they leave or the company goes tits up.

Comment Re:The pain starts in 2030... (Score 1) 280

OTH, as of 2024, the boomers will already be dying in large numbers. Roughly 4 million a year by that point.
60% of men and 43% of women boomers born in 1946 will be dead by 2026. Actually, those who are not well off are more likely to be dead at that rate by 2023 and that's 80% of the population.

But going by the more conservative figures...

By 2030, almost 5 million boomers will have already died.
By 2040, about 30 million boomers will have already died.

The biggest crisis we really need to address is medical care expenses for the last 90 days of life. Speaking as a boomer myself, we cannot afford to spend over a thousand dollars a day to keep someone alive for an extra three months. That's were we need to cap our spending and limit our losses. If someone wants to spend their own money or has insurance- fine. Otherwise, we have to make some hard rational choices.

However, if we destroy 30% of jobs for young people with automation and AI, then there won't be tax revenue to pay.

Comment Re:Like what? (Score 1) 280

Actually, there has only been a job if you speak of humans generically.

Sure, the generation after the luddites had jobs. But most of the luddites died homeless or exposure and starvation years earlier than they should have.

We *may* have jobs again 30 years after this hits but the most likely scenario is 33% unemployment for decades. And almost all manual labor jobs suitable for people with low drive or low iq being replaced by robots. And many high intelligence jobs being replaced by automation. And many skilled jobs replaced by a combination of automation and robots.

Over the next 10 years, it looks likely that 10% of jobs will simply go away. This includes m ost retail clerks (4 million jobs) (as you simply pick up the goods and walk out of the store with an rfid charging you automatically) or you order it online (for less- and no gasoline or miles on your car and no going to the store to find it is sold out), drivers (3 million jobs), most manufacturing jobs, and most manual labor jobs.

In the end- taxes will have to be collected from those who still have incomes. And overall our productivity will be higher than it is today- so providing for everyone should take a smaller share of gdp. But if people are left without jobs and without safety net benefits- it could become a hell hole and possibly fall to civil disorder and even civil war.

Comment Re:Like what? (Score 2) 280

Climate change is serious but not as serious as the limits to growth coming up. They are going to hit harder and sooner.

No more cheap stainless steel will be a big one.

We could see a billion people die ahead of time over a single decade sometime between 2050 and 2100. Likely to threaten civilization, provoke wars, and be a period when the carrying capacity of the earth drops by a couple billion people over 50 years.

Our usage of many resources continues to grow exponentially as the population continues to grow and the standard of living continues to rise. We consumed more chromium in 2014 than we did from 1901 to 2000 combined. And similar for many, many other resources.

At the same time climate change might destroy our ability to raise grain as it destroys viability of many of the worlds major growing zones and pushes the climate into areas not capable of growing. And changes the pattern of rainfall.

Climate change is dangerous and big- but limits to growth are much bleaker. And the most likely scenario is they will hit way to fast for us to mitigate them so we'll still be accelerating as we hit them head on.

Comment Re: Electric, or Jet? (Score 1) 175

Actually... I knew exactly what he meant.

I think the person being pedantic is you. He might being imprecise. I think you are the one who's being ostentatious about your learning or overly concerned with minute details or formalisms.

----

pedantic
[puh-dan-tik]

adjective
1.
ostentatious in one's learning.
2.
overly concerned with minute details or formalisms, especially in teaching.

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Journal Journal: 170419 (almost)

Took a leap of faith and left my bags buried under a freeway overpass. This gives me the mobility to walk around. The world is a nasty place these days. The security guard is everywhere. If you didn't arrive in a car, park in the lot, and make your way to the front door then you are a person of special interest. Especially if you look homeless. There are plenty of pretendo homeless people, fakes. Rich kids on the street because they like it, they've been assigned there, or they don't w

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