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Comment History forgotten [Re:Already done!] (Score 1) 123

Solar panels are cheap because of China, not because of "development effort" of the "decades-long research" done by rich nations.

It may look like that from this side of the millennium, but no, the history is simply in the process of being forgotten. This was a big effort.

Pretty much ALL of the present solar technology we see in megawatt production today is an outgrowth of the old Large Silicon Solar Array ("LSSA") program of the late 70s/early 80s (although the University of New South Wales group led by Martin Green needs to get some credit, too).

The program was originally part of RANN ("Research Applied to National Needs") and transitioned to ERDA (the Energy Research and Development agency) which then became part of the Department of Energy. LSSA became LSA, and then got renamed FPSA ("Flat Plate Solar Array"-- distinguishing it from concentrator solar arrays). So it had a lot of names.

You are taking like that research was given for free

Of course not. It was paid for by taxpayers (from the rich nations.)

I was there. You weren't.

If you want more details, dig up any of the old IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists' Conference ("PVSC") proceedings from the 70s and 80s and look at the program summary papers, typically the plenary talks toward the beginning.

... China makes solar cheaper. Not the west.

China makes solar cheaper because they invested in scaling up technologies developed by the west.

Comment Re:But China is the world leader here (Score 1) 16

China has built phenomenal amounts of renewal power and their emissions peaked this year, with a modest (1%) decline. Here's a good source from the World Economic Forum. It notes the complexities and fragility of the decrease, but also shows the underlying path which lead to it.

Sounds interesting. You forgot to paste the link, could you post it?

Comment Re: This is a non-story (Score 1) 136

Except... basically all the warming already is done. Further increases in CO2 basically don't contribute to warming.

Incorrect.

Warming is proportional to the logarithm of the carbon dioxide concentration. This is the Arrhenius relationship; it's been know for over a century. (For reference, this is why climate sensitivity is expressed as degrees of warming per doubling.)

You could say that "that means that as CO2 increases the slope levels out", which is true, but we are still in the linear range.

An interesting paper (although not peer reviewed), basically re-doing Manabe and Wetherald's 1967 calculations but with updated spectral lines. Did you actually read past the first paragraph? Their conclusion was that for the one-dimensional adiabatic warming due to carbon dioxide, they calculate 2.3 Kelvin per doubling of CO2. Points to note:

1. they express warming as degrees per doubling: they are agreeing with the Arrhenius relationship that warming increases as the logarithm of the concentration.
2. Their calculated value of 2.3 K/doubling is within the error bars of the IPCC estimate (which is the average of many models), although on the low side of the average estimated climate sensitivity. But, it's a simplified one-dimensional model, so it's not expected to be identical to the full 3D models.

Comment Re:nonlinear [Re:This is a non-story] (Score 1) 136

We seem to be talking about completely different things. Let me see if I can state what I said more clearly. My comment had been that there is nothing new about this "news" story. Your reply was "Not sure I agree. The increase is not linear."

The fact that the increase is not linear is not relevant to the fact that there is nothing new.

You continued "That makes milestones relevant, as it helps gauge the exponent of the function."

Nope. The "milestone" 430 ppm gives you no information whatsoever about "the exponent of the function".

This story is not news. The fact that the curve is exponential does not make it news.

Comment nonlinear [Re:This is a non-story] (Score 1) 136

Not sure I agree. The increase is not linear. That makes milestones relevant, as it helps gauge the exponent of the function.

There is a little curvature visible in the measured carbon dioxide rise, but it's the steadiness of the rise, not the slight curvature in the rise, that is the reason it hit 425 ppm.

Comment "Should" (Score 1) 136

...basically, the earth should be warmer.

The word "should be" has no meaning in the context.

The bulk of its history it's been a great deal warmer, with higher levels of CO2.

For the majority of the history of the Earth it had no oxygen in its atmosphere. But nobody is saying "basically, the Earth should have no oxygen."

Comment Re:This is a non-story (Score 1) 136

Maybe you're a good scientist/technical type, but you obviously don't know a lot about human cognitive processes and learning.

I know too much about human cognitive processes and learning. I know that humans get desensitized to information they hear over and over, and eventually just filter it out.

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