Hopped into the ol' Delorean, cranked it up to 88 mph, and when I got there...well I found a nice cozy spot, wipped out a vintage dead-tree copy of Playboy (from before it went woke) and well...the rest is history.

You're welcome.

But they've been shipping with one-button mice since the 80s.

Your thoughtful counterargument has shown me the error in my reasoning. Thank you!

Yes, and?

Even if you tell a human programmer to make no mistakes, they'll still write security holes. Yeah no shit LLMs aren't perfect. Neither are humans.

LLMs will cheerfully write egregiously bad ones unless you tell it not to. I find that a bit strange.

I predict that 3 years from now, the current DRAM shortage will turn into a glut.

Depends on how long it takes for the new fabs to come online. As of right now, there's about the right amount of capacity to supply the pre AI bubble world with DRAM.

Unfortunately unsold stock will be less useful because it's the wrong type for many consumer things. Though NVidia could rerelease some of the Quadro cards as consumer ones to make use spare HBM.

Robotics dweebs also deserve it, especially if their creations are used to (1) turf people out of jobs or (2) kill people - i.e. military purposes.

Meh. Firstly, I believe one of my creations is used to kill people, or as an important part of devices that do. But it's also used in a ton of other things. It makes as much sense to say steel is a bad creation because it's used to make guns.

Secondly, I'm not a pacifist. If someone's trying to kill me, I firmly believe in killing them first and I also do not think there is any such thing a a fair fight. Likewise I do not think it is evil of Ukraine to massively develop their arms industry and methods of killing people when it's in service of not getting killed or ending up in the dominion of Putin.

And if the world is going to develop weapons I really don't want it to be the sole preserve of the kind of dictatorial scumbags who don't jut not have your ethics, but positively revel in not having them.

The next AI Winter will be spectacular

One thing I am 100% confident in is that the that the AI winter following the oncoming crash will be every bit as bad as the internet winter following the dotcom crash.

Which is to say: not.

For a lot of things it works way too well and is way too effective to disappear. Sure we won't get frontier model inference for 1/5th of the cost. Some of the "growth at all costs" behemoths might crash as hard as webvan. But you know, online shopping and deliveries didn't die with them.

I mean take my futurology prediction with as much or little salt as you choose. But I'll lord it over you if I'm right and you can lord it over me if I'm wrong. Isn't that the true point of the internet?

While LLMs will probably make that worse

Why though? I'm not saying LLMs will not write security holes, they definitely will if you don't very explicitly tell them not to. But even the nerfed public ones are not bad at spotting security holes compared to people. Most people are notoriously bad at this, but there have also been enough that a huge number of CVEs have been well documented. These are all in the training data and LLMs can absolutely spot these patterns. And they can do it without getting bored on software that was written before those CVEs were found anyway.

The "not innovating" claim every iterative phone release is also kinda silly, since the "slab of glass with some cameras" thing is largely a solved problem

That and also Apple has not had a record of being a particularly innovative company. What they've always been much better at is finding ideas that they can now implement well and polishing them. The iPhone wasn't a particularly innovative device, but prior devices sucked or were curiosities because the tech wasn't quite ready, and the software was too clunky.

And we all know about the iPod here. No wireless.Less space than a Nomad. Lame. And good gried those early devices had excrable UIs.

Or...and hear me out...no exceptions. Take as many online courses as you want on your own dime, but federal student loans are for in-person education for a non-bullshit credential only.

Ever been on a college campus in the last 20 or 30 years? Lots of construction, lots of make-work. Lots of non-academic amenities.

It would be like a haircut requiring five people to work on you at the same time for five times the cost of the good old days when one person would snip here, comb there, while making idle chitchat.

$other_political_party is definitely on the list. After all, they're actively trying to $culture_war_stereotype{$other_political_party} my kids in school!

Can't forget the $medical_bogeyman{$my_political_party}. That's all over my SnapFaceX feed!

Oh and the Jews. Somehow. I'm one of them but it's still their fault damnit!

But all the 1337 open source h4x0rs were doing pretty and less useful in 2014!

But then what do you expect from customers too stupid for a right click?

Probably quite a bit less if you also deduct the cosmetic surgery for the new one.