Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.

Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.

If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.

Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."

I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.

They will only be allowed to "accidentally" hack US companies that do not pay Trump protection money.

If it was taken down after 2.5 hours it means nobody saw the movie, just part of it.

I am not convinced you get speed. I think you are more borrowing from the future. The speed you might get now, is what you have to pay back in the future.

Well, yes. For many years, presidential candidates, both Democratic and Republican, referred to the United States as "the indispensible nation". And my reaction was always, "Doesn't that mean the US is a single point of failure for civilization?"

We are currently performing an experiment which addresses this question: can the US enjoy the benefits of soft power without the cost? That's the whole point of obeying *norms*. No individual force is going to punish you if you are treacherous, mercurial, foul-mouthed, disrespectful and generally unpredictable. Everyone will punish you.

I think an inevitable cost of this experiment will be that the world will decide that the US can't be a single point of failure for global democracy any longer. In many ways, that's something that will be good for us. But it's also going to cost us in painful ways. When the world decides to move away from the dollar as the international reserve currency, you will see both inflation and higher interest rates on everything from credit cards to mortgages, to business loans that will offset the export advantages. We will need *more* business investment to shift the economy to producing low value goods again, so the transition will be rocky.

They've turned gameplay into a casino, where you grind away for six hours hoping for that rare-item drop.

And that is the future Microsoft is looking at.

It's a trade off: you get abundant free energy to run the server, with extreme constraints on cooling because your server is running in the most perfect Thermos bottle ever.

Others are taking the opposite tack: undersea data centers for abundant free cooling at the expense of having to get the power down to your servers.

If had to bet on which one is more practial, I'd go with undersea servers. Build them off the coast of Chile, run cables out from batery-backed solar plants in the Atacama desert.

I think it may be evidence that Amazon has a shitty corporate culture that squeezes every penny it can out its employees.

Corruption can happen anywhere, but it's more likely to happen in totalitarian cultures where people feel like the system is rigged anyway. That's why countries like Russia and China have corruption problems. But I suspect the same feelings of me vs. the system occur in a capitalist enterprise like Amazon where employees are governed by dystopian, rigid, computerized metrics.

The restrictions are a mix of reasonable nuisance management and paranoia about who is flying drones, what they can do, and chain of custody.

Beijing proper is a city with a population density of over 21,000 / km^2 -- so you can imagine the chaos if any tech enthusiast resident could fly a drone without a permit. Except for a couple of free zones in the outer boroughs, New York City restricts drone launcing and landings within the city to flights with a permit and flight plan, because otherwise the sky would be black with drones. Many cities -- both red and blue -- have zone restrictions for drone flights, and those currently hosting World Cup matches have tightened them for the duration of the tournament.

BitKeeper also did everything Git could back in the day.

I thought these Al were really intelligent and powerful, why do I need special skills for them? Can't I just tell them what to do?

Those javax -> jakarta packages were not part of the JRE. However, those common interfaces are extremely popular. So you probably use a framework or library which uses them and has transitioned to the newer packages. But you could still use the old frameworks or libraries in a newer JRE, assuming they do not use a library that messes with JVM bytecode (which is commonly used to create more advanced class proxies). Javaassist, OW2 ASM, and the likes are the problematic parts for moving on to a newer JRE. These libraries are used a lot. In most cases you cannot simply drop in a new bytecode manipulating library. That's where you run into the part where you have to move your software to newer frameworks and libraries which then also mean you need to change some of your code to go to the jakarta packages. And then you need to hope your software didn't abused some undocumented behavior/features, or internals, of those frameworks.

Yes, there is a high probability that your (enterprise) software will need code changes in order to run on newer JREs.

Nine years ago we already had a funny prompt injection: https://www.bbc.com/news/techn...
Which was then used commercial by Burger King: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Can't wait for the new ad prompt injections.

If it's still ongoing or cancelled should be a warning to everybody of the risk of being tied to Microsoft.

Oh no... they are in danger.