Comment Re:Bubble full yet? (Score 3, Interesting) 19
They're out of money. Oracle is selling stuff to cover commitments that can't physically be built for businesses that are losing billions of dollars, all on spec. NVidia is certainly wealthy, but even their pockets aren't deep enough prop up all the tents. The VC money doesn't exist anymore: their capitalization is one full order of magnitude smaller than the latest plays, where ultra wealthy Big Tech companies are capitalizing their own customers with hundreds of billions of dollars.
They're out of power. All the low hanging power sources are tapped. Where spare power exists, it's surrounded by a hostile population (see Stargate Michigan, failing simultaneously on two fronts: pushback from citizens and finance.) They flailing around, talking about building nuclear reactors in Elon Time, which is never going to happen.
They're out of hardware. Stargate Abilene is never going to make its build-out schedule: it was supposed to be running in 2026, but it won't be complete till 2027 or later unless some alien spacecraft unloads thousands of pallets of GB200 racks at some point in the next few months. It is physically impossible to build and deploy that much hardware on this planet at this time. Meanwhile, costs of every type of silicon they need is skyrocketing, blowing out costs.
They're running out of smoke. The banks that are funding all this leverage are getting nervous, asking questions, and pushing back. Despite suspending their brains for the last few years, they can actually do math, and the math says that there isn't really as much money in all this as they've allowed themselves to be led to believe. OpenAI is enshittfying their product with ads trying to come up with a revenue source, because their product is already a commodity: it works, but it's also not difficult to make (there are multiple competitors at parity now,) and eventually it will be cheap. So these huge investments and build-outs aren't ever going to pay off.