Comment Re: It's about destroying privacy and security (Score 1) 80
It has happened under both.
Comment Re:How far back do the records exist? (Score 5, Interesting) 151
And yes, that's the time when Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit (1686 - 1736), Anders Celsius (1701 - 1744) and René-Antoine Ferchault de Réaumur (1686 - 1757) lived, each constructing his own type of thermometer, and defining his own temperature scale.
Comment Re:The cost on human minds is high (Score 1) 46
Nice post and an interesting comparison, but I think there's one big difference: live music remains hugely popular and a big business despite recording technology, but you don't see a lot of people showing off their arithmetic skills for profit. Today's mathematicians are more akin to composers.
There's also an interesting historical side to the analogy, as the separation between composers and performing musicians is relatively modern (and only really applies to classical art music genres anyway). And as you pointed out about Euler et al, modern math started out as a way to simplify practical calculations, such as the geometry of farming and city planning, or accounting. But this also shows a crucial difference: music has never been so much about practical utility as it's about esthetic or emotional experience. So while modern math has become a thing with its own sense of beauty, simply adding up numbers isn't very fun — though some might disagree.
Comment Re:Ban or tax them (Score 1) 59
I think the British way would be to require a licence to vape.
FTFY.
Comment Re:About Fsck'n time... (Score 5, Interesting) 96
Comment Re:What makes you think they capitulated? (Score 1) 136
So they're all owned by billionaires. Everything is or at least 90% of everything.
4% of wealth in America is owned by billionaires.
Comment Re:pay for the environment (Score 1) 209
Comment Re: pay for the environment (Score 1) 209
It's ten years to payback where I am.
Where is that?
Also the whole 'pay now save later' only works for people with money in the first place.
Financing is available for solar installations.
Comment Re:pay for the environment (Score 2) 209
Comment Copper and gold (Score 0, Redundant) 36
From the summary:
Every single Flock camera has about 2-3 pounds of copper and about 1-2 grams of gold
The entire camera weighs less than 3 pounds and contains a few grams of copper and less than a milligram of gold.
Comment Re: Air Conditioners save lives (Score 2) 194
Comment Re:A specious assumption, on the face of it (Score 3, Informative) 34
American auto manufacturers exclusively make cars which have very little marketability other than in the U.S. itself.
Last year, America's automobile exports were worth $54B.
Comment Re:Heavy Lifting (Score 3, Interesting) 66
Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.
Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.
If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.
Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."
I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.