Comment Re:Stockholm syndrome? (Score 1) 152
Comment Re:What is the failure mode of this "smart" system (Score 1) 66
Comment It's okay singapore, it was just a cover story (Score 2) 30
Comment Re: Odd morality (Score 1) 139
Comment Blast from the past (Score 5, Interesting) 76
Comment Re:Seems like a good way to... (Score 2) 18
Comment Re:Seems like a good way to... (Score 4, Insightful) 18
Comment Re:Grow A Pair (Score 1) 189
So what part of this 5D chess that Trump was supposedly playing was the midterms fiasco? Because at least to some extent this was down to the very unpopular Iran war and all the economic problems it caused, and is still causing. I have a very hard time imagining Trump sacrificing personal popularity for some long-term geopolitical goals. Not that those make a huge amount of sense either.
In other words, we’re engaged in a carefully measured siege war designed to crater their economy and remove their future leverage (the world being forced to adapt to commerce without the straight of hormuz, etc. etc.).
Iran never got much leverage or economic benefit out of the straits of Hormuz before. They're getting a huge amount of leverage out of it now, and possibly from now on. The world isn't going to stop using oil in the next few years, and there is no real alternative to all the oil coming from the Middle East that goes through the strait of Hormuz (except maybe Russia). So once Iran recovers from the bombings it may well emerge more powerful long-term.
Also, US critically depleting its stock of some types of missiles in the Iran war doesn't sound like a "carefully measured" war to me. Compared to just launching all the nukes, maybe.
We’re trying to engineer a situation 5 years down the road, when Xi is seriously jonesing to invade Taiwan, and he looks around for allies and realizes that he has none.
Why Is Xi going to be "seriously jonesing" to invade Taiwan in exactly 5 years time? Why not now? Or 10 years ago? China always had an overwhelming military superiority to Taiwan, if they wanted to invade they would've already. China doesn't want the economic shitstorm it would unleash, their economy is still very dependent on exports to Western economies, not as much as before, but still. They won't want to lose the mainland to get Taiwan.
I believe Taiwan is a useful thing for CCP to stoke nationalistic fervour from time to time to distract the population from domestic troubles. Look at our glorious military all marching in the big parade, one day they'll totally retake the island, one day guys. Actually invading though would be way more trouble that it's worth.
Also, even if they wanted to invade Taiwan would they really need Iran that much? According to this China is second in military spending, way higher than even Russia which is actually fighting a war, second only to the totally insane amount of money the US is spending. Iran OTOH is in 38th place. The data is from 2025 so Iran's spending is probably higher now, but only because it's fighting a war. So, Iran is not exactly a military superpower.
Every day an aircraft carrier floats on the water costs an eye-bleeding amount, but I’m not sure how much the amount changes if the carrier is stationed off the coast of Nantucket, or off the coast of Iran.
I'm not an expert in military logistics or anything, but I'd imagine it's way higher off the coast of Iran simply because of how much further all the supplies need to be shipped.