Historically, cars decayed mechnically, which led to churn, which created the used car market volume. A car might come off finance after 3 or 4 years, then be sold once again after another five or six years for a lot less money, then have one or two cycles more before ending up as a beater or as scrap.
But in an EV world, cars may decay technologically, but they’re going to remain mechanically (ahd chemically) robust for much longer. That will cut failure-driven churn, and is likely to stabilise mid-tier pricing, cut transaction velocity and volumes, etc. The beater market may disappear. Here’s what I mean: an EV with a 300 mile LFP pack (or sodium, in 2027 or 2028) may have essentially the same range after 30 years, because that’s “only” 400,000 or so miles of driving, and the chemistry probably gets you to more like 900,000. The drivetrain is so much simpler that nothing on it is likely to have broken. So at what point do you *need* to sell it because it doesn’t do the original job?