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Comment Re:Illiberals attacking liberty (Score 1) 44

still fine ?

Fine? No, I'd be devastated by the death. But why would somebody else's making money — not "out of it", but by predicting it — affect me at all? They didn't kill the child. They didn't contribute to his dying.

Yeah, going home from a funeral — of anyone close to you — and watching people carelessly enjoying their lives unaware of your tragedy is annoying. But you don't get mad at them. Or, maybe, you do — because you're a fool controlled by emotions, rather than rational thought.

Comment Re:NPR lost the plot on this article (Score 1) 44

There is minuscule public (non-insider) information about medical trials.

Typically there's quite a bit. "New" drugs usually have quite a bit of published pre-clinical work, sometimes going back decades, and previous phase clinical trials must be published.

This is "gambling".

Yes. All all the justifications Kalshi came up with are bullshit. Either things that already exist in a non-gambling form (e.g. clinicaltrials.gov) or are not useful.

Comment Re:How can you watermark a song ... (Score 1) 22

Actually, no, what they usually do is much more insidious: fingerprinting rather than watermarking. The fingerprint isn't actually included in the audio, it's included in a database. If they want to tell if the track was generated, they just try to match the fingerprint in the database. Can't filter it out of the track like you can with a watermark.

Comment Re:Open source solution (Score 3, Informative) 22

The two mainstream options (both about half a year old now, we're due for something better) are Ace Step-1.5 and Stable Audio 3 Medium.

Ace Step has full vocals with its music. See here for examples. The downside in my opinion (judge for yourself) is that it has Suno's flaw of sounding too "clean", "mainstream" and "uncreative", except even moreso (Udio was always much better than Suno at this, albeit "less well behaved" - but Udio is out of the game now).

Stable Audio 3 doesn't do vocals, though it has other useful features, like inpainting (great for fixing glitches in recorded tracks for example). In my view, it sounds a lot better. It can also be used to create sound effects. License is a bit more restrictive, though, if you actually care about that, but generally won't affect the average user.

Both are trained on fully licensed data and both are open-weights. So even if the devs released a version that included some sort of watermarking in the future (or someone developed a fingerprinting algo for the existing versions), you could just finetune them to break that.

TL/DR, if you want open source and want to just churn out a full track: choose Ace Step 1.5.
If you want open source and want to do instrumental tracks or to supplement manual work (such as your own vocals) or do audio editing: chose Stable Audio 3.

Comment Re: We are also paying the Germans 1.2 billion (Score 5, Informative) 115

Better deals? You mean pay double and be happy. Tariffs don't ever make domestic goods cheaper and more available.

It's convenient to blame China of course. It's a lot more palatable than realizing that our own system has screwed us. Because we're the best in the world and if we can't do it cheaply and affordably, they must be cheating! Unfair trade! Unfair to the biggest power in the world.

But the simple fact is American companies put you in this situation. China didn't get ahead because they cheated. They got ahead because American companies deliberately gutted manufacturing and fired workers to improve their bottom line, and China responded to the demand, willing to take slightly lower short-term profits. Tariffs won't fix this (if it actually is broken). In fact they make it much, much worse. American companies aren't incentivized to ramp up production and drive down prices. In fact it's the opposite. With no competition, what capacity you do have will remain the same while prices double and triple. It's all about that sweet sweet shareholder profit (and CEO pay out). There will never be self sufficiency as long as the Harvard Business School mentality drives corporations. Meanwhile enjoy your massive tax increases that fund an ever-decreasing amount of social services.

That is why things were so bad during COVID.

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