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Comment Re: Gulf conflict? (Score 1) 94

Oh please. The enforcement mechanisms were subverted and ignored by Iran right along. They kept throwing the investigators and monitors out of the country.

Dispute resolution mechanisms are baked into the agreement. If parties feel subversion is taking place any party can exercise it as was done in 2020 two years after the US violated the agreement.

You could at least be serious and deal with the facts please

If you were serious about "facts" you would provide specific claims and cite credible sources to support your statements.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 1) 167

Bad sentiment, seriously? Trump directly and voluntarily damaged our economies (with tariffs). Trump threatened our national security, more than once! Trump denied us needed help for our friend Ukraine!

So? I think what Trump is doing is embarrassing, dangerous and counterproductive yet unless he starts invading Greenland or Canada or sells F-35s to Russia or some truly crazy shit nothing substantive is going to change because the existing architecture serves everyone's interests. FFS Europeans are still sending cash to America to buy military equipment not at a discount but at a healthy war profiteers markup. There is a lot of noise but nothing as of yet has fundamentally changed.

1. Would Trump invoke NATO Article 5? Really, with his ego? Then would anyone trust him with help right now? Or is he going to impose 200% more tariffs (like he threatened Spain two weeks ago) if he doesn't get exactly the amounts of troops he wants, or the amount of money he demands, or whatever goes through his mind that morning?

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. Did you mean to ask would Trump respond in good faith to an invocation of Article 5 by European allies? I'm not sure. He is an amoral shitbag. I wouldn't count on it. Even if there was someone sane in the white house if shit really hit the fan it was never a certainty the alliance would deliver due to selfish balancing of interests. Article 5 makes no affirmative demands of any country... it is all voluntary.

The question of would he invoke it, given all the whining about expecting NATO to come to his aid and help clean up his mess in Iran my guess is he would try.

2. Can you provide any reason why we would actually risk our lives for a war we didn't choose, we were not even be INFORMED OF a minute in advance? I don't see any benefit for any to enter this mess.

When I said shit hits the fan I'm not speaking of the US-Iran war. It would be something crazy like NK lobbing nukes, attacks from China, meat waves from Russia...etc.

If I were a head of state of any European country unless Iran attacked me or my allies I sure as fuck wouldn't enter the war with Iran at this point.

3. We (non-USA part of the world) are at PEACE with Iran right now. Why would we want to become their target?

My best guess you've misinterpreted my remarks.

4. USA is constantly playing Big Boy. What sort of help does Goliath needs against David?

No idea of the relevance of "Big Boy".

4.1 Do you really think European countries will send troops in Iran? We have democracies, we typically have 4+ political parties in a constantly moving equilibrum. If governments do stupid things like this, they fall in a month, someone else becomes the leader and most likely backtracks.

You've already asked this question and I answered it above. I never said shit about anyone sending troops to Iran.

A note to mods please read the FAQ before moderating. Disagreement, being wrong or disliking someone is not a valid reason for down mods. If you can't respect the rules of this site refrain from moderating.

4.2 or do you want European troops to help secure Washington DC while you're busy in Tehran?

Iran had nothing to do with my previous "shit hits the fan" statement.

I do think when there is a common threat and countries with aligned interests don't work together to address it then they can all expect outcomes that serves nobodies interest. The stream of noise and annoyances coming out of the white house does not alter the basic structure of alliances and interests.

4.3 Would you actually have use for a European aicraft carrier, when the USA has 11 in operation, and whole Europe has TWO? (And both are 2.5 times smaller than the American counterparts?) Trump has been constantly belittling European armies. Do you expect Europe to go all-in with... so little investment in defence... as Trump painted it?

This is like saying you made fun of me and that other guy over there is shooting at me so no because you belittled me I don't want you to help me and I won't help you when they shoot at you. Have some perspective. I get people are royally annoyed and pissed off by the demented clown in the white house.

(2) the war expands when Russia (Iran's ally) attacks Europe as retaliation, or seeing an opportunity. That still won't make Europeans enter the Iran war. To the contrary that will make Europe withdraw from wherever else and defend itself.

There is a reasonable chance Putin would attempt if he could to wage endless wars of conquest in a bid to reconstitute the USSR. Iran doesn't even enter into that picture except as an enabler of Russian aggression.

If you think every country for themselves will work against Russia as it slowly annexes neighboring countries and mobilizes their populations to fuel future war efforts... god bless you good luck with that you are going to need it. You are not being attacked (right now) go back to sleep.

Comment Re: Please sir (Score -1, Flamebait) 167

Iran is "vulnerable" and "weak"? Really?

Yea, really.

It just took out a $750M E-3 Sentry AWACS using missiles and drones that probably cost it a total of a couple of million bucks.

It downed an F-15E and an A-10. It damaged a Black Hawk helicopter.

So what? The US has lost virtually nothing thus far in context of the overall effort.

The stakes for the Islamic Republic regime are existential. If it survives, it wins.

That's about right.

And in the entire history of warfare, the number of regime changes achieved via air attacks alone is precisely: ZERO.

This isn't true. Japan signed an instrument of unconditional surrender without boots on the mainland.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 2) 167

really. that news site is based in london, funded with saudi money, and their openly stated stance is pro-monarchist,

"That news site" happens to be very popular inside of Iran.

The monarchist talking point ignores critical context and is generally intended to sway low information readers. While there are monarchists who mean it the majority speaking of kings and chanting related slogans are not actually calling for literal return of monarchy. It is a mix of trolling / speaking against the illegitimate regime, nostalgia for the past and generally wanting a new system. Not even RP wants a monarchy and if there is one the version contemplated is a form more ceremonial in nature akin to present day Emperor of Japan or King of England sort of thing.

opposed to the islamic republic

Vast majority of the population is opposed to the current illegitimate regime.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 1) 167

1. It's pissed off most of its allies who will be much less likely to help them out in future. We all helped out after 9/11 and in Afghanistan. That ain't happening in future with the attitude from the Trump regime.

Trump has pissed off a lot of allies and created a lot of bad sentiment. This doesn't change anything. If shit really hit the fan our allies would assist just the same given it would likely be in their direct interests to do so.

2. The USA is sabotaging its own economy, first with ridiculous sanctions and second by blowing up the world economy with this war.

I will agree the issue with traffic thru hormuz is a drag on the worlds economies.

3. The USA may have an impressive industrial base, but dig deeper... pretty much every supply chain in the USA has some dependence on China or some other country, and alienating those countries is not a good strategy.

What country is being alienated to a relevant extent? Is there an actual issue with the supply chain caused by present day alienation? If not how is the USA getting weaker when there is no impact? China cut us off from rare earths for a short time and the result was revitalization of US capacity.

4. The weakening of democracy in the USA and its contempt for the international order is emboldening countries like China and Russia.

RE Russia give me a fucking break. As for everyone else you are correct the world becomes a far more dangerous place with normalization / reassertion of might makes rights / realism / empire building. Yet this isn't currently making the USA weaker. It's not a good idea and it is ultimately counterproductive. It sure as hell is creating additional risk. This USA getting weaker thing just isn't what is actually happening in the real world.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 1) 167

in iran? i doubt that. do you have a link? killing khamenei was like killing the pope,

LOL Khamenei wasn't even qualified to be an ayatollah. A fact he himself admitted. All pretenses went out the window when they picked Mojtaba to inherent the throne as puppet of the IRGC mafia state.

the whole shia community is aghast.

Reza Pahlavi is a Shia. I'm sure he was devastated and heartbroken over the demise of the Zahhak.

here's a video of actual iranians in iran, it's just a few hours old: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180...
these videos just keep coming in, i can show you many others if you want. they demonstrate for the regime every day, even under attack. these are very brave and dignified people, they're indeed royally pissed but not precisely with their government atm, and they will not yield.

There is a massive selection bias in the information coming out of Iran. The only people who have working Internet are certified regime loyalists/propogandists. Everyone else is blocked. There are some with Starlink terminals buried in a hole operated at great personal risk as well as those able to pick up cell signals from bordering countries. Yet the vast majority of outgoing is blessed by an illegitimate regime who just massacred over 30k of their own people and injured some 300k more over a two day period.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score -1, Troll) 167

The real winners in this are Russia and China. A weakened USA is just what they want, and it's just what they are going to get.

How is the USA getting weaker? It hasn't lost any strategically relevant assets or personal. Iran sure as hell has. Investments in US and partner defense industrial bases have been ramping for years. Attrition of the Iranian regime directly weakens Russia as a key ally of Iran. Likewise China receives the vast majority of Iranian hydrocarbon exports.

The problem is that the USA will lose because its political leadership is completely incompetent. It had no idea how Iran would react. It thought this would be Venezuela II. Even though any armchair general could have predicted that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz to cause economic pain, Trump seems to have been caught by surprise.

The US political leadership has no plan, no clear goals, no strategy, and no clue who they are dealing with. They are going to put their own soldiers' lives at risk and are going to totally botch this shitshow.

I agree the US political picture is an inept and incompetent shitshow. I'm not so sure this translates into USA will lose although it certainly doesn't help.

There are for now highly competent and motivated people below the political layer. It is an open question how long this will last with war criminal Whisky Pete doing his level best to run the military into the ground.

Comment Re:Please sir (Score 1) 167

Everyone loses in this war. Imagine if instead of spending $200 billion to bomb poor brown people, we spend the money on helping people in this country?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine their allies have been dropping like flies. Assad's Syria is no more. Russian influence in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Africa, Venezuela and Cuban are in decline. Even Transnistria is being cut off.

Thanks to the Israelis and now the US the Islamic revolutions power projection is being severely attrited in the region. Russia can't do shit to help Iran who provided it with tens of thousands of drones to kill and terrorize Ukrainian civilians for years. Lebanon is asserting itself against Hezbollah, Iran is losing control over Iraqi proxy groups while others return to Iran in desperation as IRGC's critical military and financial situations are only getting worse. Iran's ability to assist Russia or proxy groups anywhere has vaporized.

Meanwhile Iran's indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on over a dozen countries in the region has strengthened regional sentiment against Iran. The Iranian regime is now seen as irrevocably illegitimate by the vast majority of its own population following its massacre of over 30k of its own civilians and injuring of over 300k over the course of two days in January.

No problem with $200 billion for "regime change" / "finishing the job" in Iran. Would like to see $200 billion more spent in Ukraine.

While Trump was an idiot to start a major war with Iran the only thing dumber at this point would be failing to finish the job.

Comment Re:um ok, but... (Score 1) 60

I think steam does set the processes slightly nice, but I don't think they change the ioprio so it can still have a negative impact on systems without fast storage. (I have mirrored nVME SSDs so this is only a problem to any degree when this is done for infrequently played games, which are stored on HDD. That's a 3-way mirror too, though.)

Mirroring an SSD? Does TRIM even work with mirrored SSDs?

Comment Re: Gulf conflict? (Score 1) 94

Iran only officially killed the deal with the other signatories in 2025. So that would put Iran openly violating the treaty years ahead of rescinding it.

This is indeed exactly what happened. In 2019 Iran said it would not respect the enrichment limit and a year later it went further publicly stating it would not abide by any limits.

The deal wasn't just with the US and Iran.

The deal was violated by the act of US backing out. Noncompliance by one party is per the agreement itself grounds for the other not abide to their side either. In an alternate reality where the US stayed in and Iran decided to violate you would have a point.

In this particular reality it was in fact the US who violated the deal not Iran. This means any Iranian noncompliance including refusing to be bound to limits and or preventing international monitoring is per agreed upon terms no longer a violation of the agreement.

Comment Re: Gulf conflict? (Score 1) 94

But, by most accounts, Iran never stopped enriching uranium. For some of us that would seem to indicate the sanctions were not working well.

The JCPOA did not seek to prevent Iran from enrichment. It merely capped the size of enriched stockpiles and limited enrichment to around 4%.

Iran has not always been honest about its nuclear programs.

Most critically the deal imposed an extensive monitoring regime to verify compliance.

Comment Re:Seems pointlessly unsafe (Score 5, Insightful) 183

A dummy load and some chemistry to use oxygen would do the same job with zero human risk.

If they're not putting boots on the Moon, they shouldn't have their asses in the rocket.

I tried finding details of what the crew will actually be doing over the next 10 days and the answer seems to be very little. According to planetary society:

"During the mission, the Artemis II crew will test Orionâ(TM)s various capabilities in deep space. That includes life-support and environmental systems, manual piloting and proximity operations, and communications and navigation systems."

"The crew will also contribute to studies of human physiology, sleep, motion, and other biological responses to space travel."

Comment Re:They are using packet shaping (Score 2) 101

I'd be trying a QUIC based VPN. Done well, port 443 still serves web pages - but hit the right URL and you have a VPN instead.

Somewhere I remember recently seeing a chart of Russian bandwidth by protocol and HTTP3 was the first to drop out. You could even see the fallback to TCP manifest in the chart.

Comment Re:Food shortages (Score 1) 101

Trump's stupid illegal war is on track to start causing food shortages. This is Putin getting out ahead of that.

This is the most improbable theory of Putler's systematic erosion of Ruzzian Internet I've ever heard. The degredation of sites, Internet blackouts and bans on hundreds of VPNs predate Trumps war of choice against the Iranian regime. Current steps are a logical progression of previously employed boiling frog tactics to replace the Internet with a state run intranet.

Comment Re:Coming to America (Score 1) 101

This is actually why OS level age gates are the (slightly) saner solution when politicians open their yap about ostensibly protecting kids online.

Problem: Parents are incapable of parenting
Solution: Government mandates age flag at OS level

Problem: Kid installs software that ignores OS flag bypassing "protecting kids online"
Solution: Government mandates only approved software can be installed

Problem: Kid bypasses government restriction on approved software
Solution: Government forbids existence of unapproved computer hardware and operating systems preventing bypass

Government mandates on operating systems are very much "the hill to die on".

Normalizing imposition of government mandated constraints on the execution of software that accomplishes nothing is far more dangerous than the fools errand of asking websites all around the world who owe you nothing and are comically outside of your jurisdiction to accede to the impossible multiplicity of global regulatory demands. This is an inversion of responsibility that works no better online than it does IRL.

The only coherent solution is parental controls, third party site certifications, whitelisting, content filtering systems and services..etc.

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