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Comment Re: Orders of magnitude (Score 1) 157

H2 requires a constant reliable base load like nuclear power, if not, you get explosions. It also requires expensive metals to do reliably.

H2 is probably the future in the long term but it requires a lot more development and investment which is currently consumed by short term solutions like EV and solar.

Other than for industrial vehicles, I’m not seeing any indication that H2 infrastructure costs are coming down or the conversion losses being properly addressed?

Comment Re:How much is really delayed maintenance? (Score 1) 116

Copper is not "the last mile". It's the last five meters. If that. When people talk about "the grid", they're not talking about the wiring in your walls. Which you don't have to redo anyway for adding an EV. Nobody has to touch, say, your kitchen wiring to add an EV charger.

"The grid" is the wiring leading up to your house. Those conductors are alumium, not copper. Occasionally the SER/SEU cable will occasionally be copper, but even that's generally alumium these days. And that's only to the service connection point (not even to the transformer - to the point of handoff between grid-owned and the homeowner-owned, generally right next to the house), e.g. after the service drop line with overhead service that descends down to the building. The "last mile" is absolutely not copper. Approximately zero percent of modern grid-owned wiring is copper, and even the short customer-owned connection from the drop line into the house is usually alumium.

Grids are not copper. Period. This isn't the year 1890 here.

And no, grid operators don't make money selling power. They make money providing the grid through which power is sold.

I have never seen a single utility that charges a flat grid access fee to residential consumers, anywhere on Earth.

Distinction can be hard to grasp for someone utterly ignorant on the subject

Says a guy who thinks that there's a mile of copper leading up to your house.

Comment Re:No big deal (Score 1) 332

Motte and bailey fallacy spotted. The starting argument was (not made by you but argued for by you):

Given that I'm not the one who made that argument, it isn't a motte and bailey fallacy. My position remains exactly where it was.

And batteries do indeed make sense today - that's why they're being installed, I mean, the first BESS in the USA was installed in the town I was living in at the time - Fairbanks, AK. And it uses NiCad batteries.

you decided to retreat from indefensible position you yourself chose to retreat to a completely different much more defensible motte positions in points 1 and 2,

Nope. I restated and rephrased. You're the one that constructed the strawman.
My FIRST POST stated the so called "retreat" position.
1. If battery costs are cut in half again, they'll challenge pumped hydro: Note how this is an IF. I'm not guaranteeing it, I just think that it's a real possibility.
2. Batteries now make sense for part of the solution: Given that they're already being installed, I don't think this should be all that controversial.
3. While past returns are not a guarantee of future returns, we do know that, for example, development for sodium-ion batteries is ongoing, and that's projected to be 10-20% less than lithium-ion, and lithium-ion keeps getting cheaper and cheaper. It probably helps that I didn't mention a timeline for it to happen.

I'm not defending your strawman position for me, but I'm fully willing to defend my actual one.
For example:

finally "they can work, you just need magical engineering and things that don't exist, but I'll claim do anyway because EVs are also magical" (push back out to the bailey with prima facie absurd claims about magical engineering that doesn't exist, but should exist because you said so).

I mentioned zero magic about grid storage, batteries, or EVs. Given that you're the one bringing magic into it, I rest my case: You're creating a strawman to argue against.
Or, at least, properly identify my supposed position, using what I actually posted, as well as the backup. Keeping in mind that it should be a major difference, not just shades from attempted rephrasing of stuff.

You can't take a point that was "maybe" in my first post, treat it like I declared it a sure thing, then accuse me of being the one to commit the fallacy. Sure, you can debate on whether or not they'll be able to cut the cost of batteries in half again, but keep in mind that I was just treating it as a "maybe." I think the odds are good for them managing it, but it isn't guaranteed, especially on some sort of short timeline.

Comment Re:Pumped Hydro (Score 1) 332

Yes, indeed there are. That looks like a hefty lever to me, but it's only rated at 4 liters an hour. Enough to keep you alive, of course, but it also will go through 20 liters to produce that 4.

Can you get 800 PSI on a handheld tool? Yes, you just need a big enough lever. Looking, you can get over 2000 PSI using a manual car jack.

Also, remember my mentioning that you can do lower pressures as long as you're willing to accept lower throughput? You can work a RO system down as low as 60 psi, but at that low of a pressure, your throughput is going to be low for the amount of media needed, and you will have to flush most of the water. When you do RO, you generally get your freshwater flow and a wastewater flow that is saltier than the input. Only a percentage of the water is desalinated. You need higher pressures to do higher percentages, because the more salt, the harder it is.

Comment Re:How much is really delayed maintenance? (Score 5, Interesting) 116

The grid is not made of copper. You thought it was? Copper is for home wiring, if that. Up to that point, it's alumium, bundled with steel on major lines for tensile strength. Does it look like copper to you?

As for the article: grid operators don't build out grids on a lark. They do it to sell power, because they make money selling power. If people want to buy more power because they want to charge an EV, then that's more money available for them. EVs are a boon to grid operators. They're almost an ideal load. Most charging done at night, steady loads, readily shiftable and curtailable with incentives, etc. Daytime / fast charging isn't, but that's a minority. And except in areas with a lot of hydro, most regions already have the ample nighttime generation capacity; it's just sitting idle, power potential unsold. In short, EVs can greatly improve their profitability. Which translates to any combiation of three things:

1) More profits
2) A better, more reliable grid
3) Lower rates

    * ... depending on the regulations and how competitive of an environment it is.

As for the above article: the study isn't wrong, it's just - beyond the above (huge) problem - it is based on stupid assumptions. Including that there's zero incentives made for people to load shift when their vehicles charge, zero battery buffering to shift loads, and zero change in the distribution of generation resources over the proposed timeframe. All three of these are dumb assumptions.

Also, presenting raw numbers always leads to misleading answers. Let me rephrase their numbers: the cost is $7 to $26 per person per year. The cost of 1 to 5 gallons of gas per year at California prices..

Comment Re:Pumped Hydro (Score 1) 332

Let's see, first thought is "How high would the water column need to be?"

Wiki on RO desalination

Brackish water: 225-376 psi
Seawater: 800-1180 psi. (Note: This might actually liquify some atmospheric gasses)
1 foot of water = 0.43 PSI.

Brackish water would require a ~700 foot tower
Seawater: ~2,302 foot tower.

Tallest water tower, the Union Watersphere, ~212 feet. I'm thinking a tower isn't going to cut it.

On the other hand, I live on a well. My tank doesn't depend on height for pressure - it has an air bladder that you compress to provide the pressure. That should work, though for seawater you might need to pick a gas that won't liquify at the necessary pressure.

Comment Re:No big deal (Score 1) 332

There's a big difference between what I said and the strawman you constructed to attack.

Me: "Batteries now make sense for part of the solution" and "cut the cost in half again, it'll threaten pumped hydro"
You: "if only we discover some utterly revolutionary technology..."

1. The major revolutions have already happened.
2. LiIon prices ~1/7th the price per kWh they were 20 years ago. Asking for another halving? Not really that big of an ask, I think, with things like sodium ion batteries in the works.
3. Intermittants can indeed totally work, it just requires proper engineering. Such as having energy storage systems, more load shedding abilities. Which EVs tend to be ideally suited for.

Comment Re:Israel (Score 2) 118

Funny that to you, "Israel" and "Jews" are synonymous. As if all Jewish people unconditionally support all actions of the state of Israel, even those which are highly controversial within Israel itself.

This false synonymy creates an extremely harmful backlash. Stop doing it.

Comment Re:Titan or Bust! (Score 1) 70

Ukraine is not free

Give me a list of Ukrainian prime ministers since 2000, and compare it to a list of Russian presidents since 2000 . Thanks in advance.

Even before the conflict it was the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe

This is not even remotely true. Ukraine's Rule of Law Index in 2022 was 0,50; contrast with NATO members Turkey at 0,42 and Hungary at 0,52. And its scores were dragged down by the consequences of the war in Donbas.

with a military second in size in Europe only to Russia (hence the poverty)

Ukraine's percentage of GDP spent before the current invasion was 3,2%, and that was *with* the ongoing Donbas conflict . By contrast, the US, at peace, spends 3,45% of its GDP on the military. For some European contrasts:

Azerbaijan: 4,5%
Armenia: 4,3%
Russia: 4%
Greece: 3,7%

Before the 2014 Russian invasion, Ukraine's percentage of GDP spent on the military was 1,6%.

Comment Re:Terraforming on the same trip (Score 1) 70

ED: Just saw your second paragraph. But the things you speculate on are not exactly common on Titan, if they even exist on the surface at all (it's an icy crust ,not a rocky one). And either way, it'd be much easier with compounds other than methane.

And no, there doesn't seem to be meaningful amounts of nitrates in the atmosphere at least. You can see a list here. Nitrogen compounds are cyanide and nitrile compounds.

Comment Re:Terraforming on the same trip (Score 1) 70

Metabolized with what oxidizer?

It's just the opposite - methane on Titan is like nitrogen on Earth; it's things like acetylene and free hydrogen that are the potential energy sources, and to a lesser extent the more common (but less reactive) higher mass alkanes, etc.

The main problem is that LAWKI isn't even remotely compatible with existing in the cryogenic environment of Titan. There are a lot of interesting alternative chemistries, but they require basically redesigning life from scratch. We're simply not up to this task with our current technology.

Comment Re:Titan or Bust! (Score 1) 70

It's funny how we so strongly disagree further down in the comments, but I 100% agree with you here.

0,38g being largely fine for health is... I mean, if I had to bet, I'd put my money on it probably being true, but it's anything but guaranteed. There was a private project to test this, the Mars Gravity Biosatellite, but it ran out of funding; I'm not aware of any similar experiments that have been conducted. There've been a variety of attempts to simulate various gravity on Earth, such as having people lie on tilted beds or hanging them from cranes at an angle or whatnot, but they all have obvious weaknesses.

There's not just the question of adults who visit from Earth, but also children who grow up on 0,38g, and what impact that would have to their physiology.

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