Comment: Model This (Score 1) 317
Based on my own definition of the current model, I'd say less than 20 years. However, since what the model is isn't defined, I'm answering my own question.
I take the current model to be 25 - 30 or so students in a classroom with a single instructor (aides don't count.) Classes use minimal instructional aids and students move from class to class.
I think that direct teacher-student interaction will always have a place with children, because they just seem to learn better when someone is there to help them focus. I think class sizes could change as could the number of "instructors" per class. I also think the moving around from class to class could change and we certainly could introduce more high tech learning aids like iPad text books. Let's not relegate computers to the computer lab or library. Now I can see the library going away, actually. I can see all books and homework carried and done on an iPad, so school supplies will be greatly reduced and kids won't have to lug around 10 pounds of books all day. So more personalized teaching would be desired, along with software that tracks where a student is having difficulties. We have some of this today, but it's not really universal based on my co-workers experiences with their kids.
Wait! I take it back. There has been one big change in the last 50 years. The trend toward equal rights for intelligence such that everyone pretty much does the same. There are no winners, no losers and mediocrity is the norm.
The current model that I've seen hasn't really changed much in the last 50 years. With scores dropping and teachers getting both harder to find and less competent, I think we need a change. On the other hand, if I was put in a classroom with an iPad an internet access, I can assure you I'd never hear anything the teacher said. I'd be reading