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Comment Re:Extrapolation (Score 1) 54

I see your comment, and I know that the same error was made several times. There are numerous articles from the last couple of decades, where people point out that the exponential growth of Solar is unsustainable. Here we are in 2025, and the growth still is exponential (and has been since 1992). You have to bring up really good arguments why it should be slowing down anytime soon.

And no, I don't require every city to plaster its roofs with Solar. I just want to point out how much people underestimate the potential of Solar, because they totally underestimate the amount of energy the Sun actually provides.

Lets say, we are able to capture 20% of the Sunlight reaching the ground (actual numbers are more closely to 25%, and research solar cells reach 45%). About 70% of the Sun light is reflected by the Sun's atmosphere. In the temperate climate zone, Sun light hits the ground on average at an angle of about 45. Lets consider rainy days, and about 10% of the Sunlight will be ready for capture, of which we then capture 10%. With the Solar constant being about 1.4 kW, that means that each square meter Solar can capture 14 Watts. A person living in a city needs about 2000 kWh per year (which not only covers domestic use, but also powering the infrastructure), and with a square meter able to catch about 140 Wh per day, each person needs about 20 square meters of Solar to fully cover their energy needs. A city like Houston has a population density of 1600 inhabitants per square kilometer, which means that for each person, there are about 600 square meters of land area in Houston. Only 20 of them are needed to power the city.

Comment Re:Extrapolation (Score 1) 54

I completely lose all respect for anyone who looks at a section of a curve and extrapolates that trend onto the next twenty years as if nothing could possibly ever happen in that timeframe to change that.

I mean just look at that statement: Taking your 25% estimate we will install as much Solar in 2045 year as the total fossil energy output today.

Which assumes that in 2045 we have the production capacity, installation manpower and space to do so.

But you start out in a pretty shortsighted way alread: Sure, buy raw numbers the city roofs provide a LOT of area but assuming you could just snap your fingers and convert it all to solar is... I don't know man, it's like a child that thinks it can end war by telling all the "bad people" to "just stop".

Comment Re:Extrapolation (Score 1) 54

The estimates are very rough indeed. If you do the math for any city, you will find out that just the roofs in that city provide enough space for Solar to power the city. It's not that we will run out of space for Solar very soon.

And then, you are projecting linear growth for Solar and Wind, but the actual growth rates are exponential. Roughly every three years, the amount of Solar and Wind installed is doubling - doing so for the last 15 years. In 2027, the World will install 1400 GWp, in 2030, it will be 2800 GWp. Taking your 25% estimate (it's actually more like 17%, but that moves it just into the next year), we will install as much Solar in 2045 year as the total fossil energy output today.

Comment Re: What's the product (Score 1) 9

Do bubbles matter when the Fed can buy stocks to end panics

Yes, quite obviously. Given the amount of grift supply required by the donors of the politicians today, Fed doesn't have the money printing capacity anymore.

If the Fed had bailed out Lehman, would the 2008 panic even have started?

Yes it would have, a bit later into the bubble.

But perhaps you can ask former treasury secretary Paulson, formerly of Goldman and Sachs, the Lehman competitor, about it. He must have the details on that non-bailout - if anyone does.

Comment It's how we do it in America (Score 1) 23

You don't just take away privacy or decent wages or job security or healthcare all at once. You got to boil that frog.

Here in America it took us 65 years. This whole mess we're in started when Barry Goldwater lost. The corporate wing of the Republican party formed in alliance with the racists and the religious extremists. We were explicitly warned about it but we ignored the warnings.

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