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Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 460

by KeensMustard (#43765163) Attached to: CO2 Levels Reach 400ppm at Mauna Loa For First Time On Record
It seems you are struggling to provide honest and satisfactory answers to these questions. Perhaps you are finding it all a little overwhelming and it would be helpful if I were to ask them one at a time, moving on to the next once the last is answered in an honest, plausible and satisfactory way. So let's do that.

Let's start with number 5, since it is a pre-requisite to your central fallacy.

5. Provide a citation to justify the following assertion from you concerning something I supposedly said:

My argument is that you're claiming that a single falsifiable model makes your whole theory falsifiable

Please be sure to find a citation in which I mention "my theory".

Are you unable to provide this citation? Answer either yes, and provide the citation, or no you cannot provide the citation

Comment: Re:I do believe it because it based on sound scien (Score 1) 978

by UnknowingFool (#43762529) Attached to: 97% of Climate Science Papers Agree Global Warming Is Man-made

Please. Anybody that's looked seriously at the "hide the decline" issue and doesn't see scientific misconduct for political reasons is completely biased. I actually used to be a "warmist", not a "denier", until Climategate. Not that I was really a "warmist", as I knew trying to model the temperature of the Earth at best was always going to be somewhat uncertain, but I at least gave the scientists the benefit of the doubt.

Anybody who looked seriously at content of the emails saw the conversations were taken out of context. From wikipedia.

Many commentators quoted one email in which Phil Jones said he had used "Mike's Nature trick" in a 1999 graph for the World Meteorological Organization "to hide the decline" in proxy temperatures derived from tree ring analyses when measured temperatures were actually rising. This 'decline' referred to the well-discussed tree ring divergence problem, but these two phrases were taken out of context by climate change sceptics, including US Senator Jim Inhofe and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, as though they referred to some decline in measured global temperatures, even though they were written when temperatures were at a record high.[32] John Tierney, writing in the New York Times in November 2009, said that the claims by sceptics of "hoax" or "fraud" were incorrect, but that the graph on the cover of a report for policy makers and journalists did not show these non-experts where proxy measurements changed to measured temperatures.

Basically, tree-ring data was removed because it showed a decline. That sounds ominous until it is known that after 1960 tree-ring data for high-latitude locations showed a known problem.

Tree-ring growth has been found to match well with temperature. Hence, tree-rings are used to plot temperature going back hundreds of years. However, tree-rings in some high-latitude locations diverge from modern instrumental temperature records after 1960. This is known as the "divergence problem". Consequently, tree-ring data in these high-latitude locations are not considered reliable after 1960 and should not be used to represent temperature in recent decades.

This known unreliable data was removed. All the data has been published. Please find the discrepancies.

And if "hide the decline" isn't enough for you, then there was the explicit email requesting others to erase email to avoid freedom of information acts. That's a conspiracy to obstruct justice. Where was the prosecution?

Freedom of information act does mean that anyone and everyone can harass you because you are a climate scientist. If you were conducting science for a small university and all the sudden your university gets deluged with FOIA requests (some for data not even processed yet), what would be your response? How would you like it if people you didn't know sent mass emails to you at work asking for your incomplete work? Especially if you knew these people were against you politically only because they didn't like your work. I imagine you would be defensive and a bit frustrated at times because you want to do your work and not deal with things outside of your job. The House committee noted this:

The committee criticised the university for the way that freedom of information requests were handled, and for failing to give adequate support to the scientists to deal with such requests.

Or how about this, "Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it."

If your colleague at work wants to see your work, you'd likely show it to him. If he is your enemy at work, would you let them? Especially if they are asking for your incomplete work so that they can show your boss how incompetent you are. You might protest that the work was incomplete but they will run with it anyways. What would you do?

The committee chairman Phil Willis said that the "standard practice" in climate science generally of not routinely releasing all raw data and computer codes "needs to change and it needs to change quickly". Jones had admitted sending "awful emails"; Willis commented that "[Jones] probably wishes that emails were never invented," but "apart from that we do believe that Prof. Jones has in many ways been scapegoated as a result of what really was a frustration on his part that people were asking for information purely to undermine his research."[34] In Willis' view this did not excuse any failure to deal properly with FOI Act requests, but the committee accepted that Jones had released all the data that he could.[34] It stated: "There is no reason why Professor Jones should not resume his post. He was certainly not co-operative with those seeking to get data, but that was true of all the climate scientists".

Do you know what the common thread is among all that? Phil Jones. That they couldn't at least fire that clown shows just how much they circled the wagons.

Or that he was a scapegoat?

That's called a whitewash, as tends to happen in political fields.

Eight separate panels across two continents didn't find anything. You call it whitewash or maybe there was nothing to find.

Comment: Is the end goal of life a high salary? (Score 3, Interesting) 264

by tlambert (#43762029) Attached to: Bloomberg To HS Grads: Be a Plumber

Is the end goal of life a high salary?

I understand his advice, if followed, and if you work your way, either through trade school or apprenticeship, to journeyman, and then to master, you can expect a $80K+ a year income.

Is this the end-all, be-all of human existence?

A high salary is not why I went into the sciences - I went in with a passion for knowledge and knowing how things work, and why, and how to build things that, because they were barely within the boundaries of the rules, did amazing and astonishing things. A high salary resulted because I was successful at pursuing this passion.

I would instead advise people to try to find three things for which they feel passion, and are good at, and then find someone willing to pay you to do one of them.

If you can only find one thing for which you have passion, if you can still find someone to pay you to do it, then you are ahead of the game, compared to what Bloomberg suggest, if it happens that none of your objects of passion include plumbing.

There are plenty of people who look at the top end paychecks available in a profession, and choose a profession on that basis. Those who do will never reach the top end of that pay range if they do not posses a passion for the profession; they will always be middle tier, and they will watch the clock until it is time to check out from their job, and "get back to their 'real' life". This is where a lot of unemployed IT "professionals" come from.

For those clock watching 8 hours of their day, they will be miserable, working at something for which they have no passion, having intentionally turned their soul off for those eight hours in exchange for money. They will sell half their waking life into misery to benefit the other half of their waking life. And at the end of the day in their "real life", they will find they can not take joy in their "real life", as they anticipate, after sleeping, returning to their job for the next 8 soulless hours of work.

Do something you love, and for which you have passion; reclaim your soul for those lost 8 hours of your life.

Comment: Re:Not actually a bad idea. (Score 1) 264

by jo_ham (#43761753) Attached to: Bloomberg To HS Grads: Be a Plumber

As much as we need competent programmers, DBAs, network administrators, etc., we also need plumbers, carpenters and electricians. Not everyone has the talent or desire for college, and I think we as a society ought to recognize that. Of course, that means less income for colleges and bankers providing student loans, so I'm not surprised that this is being billed as a radical idea.

One of the worst things that happened to the UK back in the day was the stigmatisation of "trades" and the new idea that to be worth anything you had to get a degree. This had a twofold effect - a lack of people who saw a skilled trade job as a viable option, and a devaluation of the degree as everyone scrambled to offer one that would be suitable for all levels of academic achievement.

It's something we're still suffering from, and we need to get away from this idea that everyone can have every opportunity if they want - some people are not cut out for academia, and there is nothing wrong with that, but they might make an extraordinary skilled tradesman. Until we re-level that playing field and take the stigma away from jobs where you get your hands dirty, we'll be stuck with the fallout.

Comment: Re:Your suggestion to "get the **** out"... (Score 1) 479

by tlambert (#43761205) Attached to: Larry Page: You Worry Too Much About Medical Privacy

What, so libertarians now want to be given a place of their own? Is there any part of their philosophy which isn't hypocritical through the core?

Screw that, they should have to defend their claims against a military onslaught, just like countless other countries/peoples have had to do over the years.

Take for example Native Americans, whose land was seized by force. Libertarians are OK with that, but not OK with having to carve out their own land in a similar way?

Gutless hypocritcal cowards, that what libertarians are.

The didn't want to given a place of their own, they wanted to be left in peace as they built a place of their own.

Personally, I agree that they should have defended their sovereignty with force, if necessary.

Their mistake, in the case of Minerva, was that the land that they created would be acknowledged to be theirs, since it was in unclaimed territory in (at the time) international waters. It's no different, in principle, from a volcanic island being formed in international waters; the only difference is that it was immediately habitable.

They thought other nations would act civilly, and in accordance with international law; they were wrong; if there's a next time, they'll know better.

Comment: Re:Your suggestion to "get the **** out"... (Score 1) 479

by tlambert (#43761175) Attached to: Larry Page: You Worry Too Much About Medical Privacy

I think you're mixing "what is" and "what could be". Ideally borders would cease existing and we would all work together for the betterment of the human species, and as a side effect perhaps the entire Earth we inhabit. I'll settle for humans first though.

Unless you map a route for "how do you get there from here", you're stuck with the same problem that a lot of Open Source projects face: blind faith that there is some incremental, rather than revolutionary, method of moving from a mediocre saddle point to a revolutionary result. I personally maintain that you can not incrementally achieve a revolution.

This may be because historically I'm tainted by working for companies like IBM, Apple, and Google, and I have seen where incremental gets you, compared to placing a stake in the ground, and just building around the stake, while letting the past wander off into the weeds.

Google X will accomplish revolutionary things. Most of the rest of Google will not. Facebook will not, and Yahoo will not, nor will Blackberry, all of whom are patterning themselves after an existing model.

Whenever the discussion comes up about what we could/should/will/can do, someone goes and mentions economy or money as if they're natural components of the universe. Economy and money are artificial concepts invented to distinguish between have and have-not, simple as that. Do away with money and you have no incentive to do most of the shit humans do to each other. When the money (or the lack of) is not getting in the way of doing the right thing, we will start seeing improvement for everyone. Untill then, I will keep calling out the capitalists on their bullshit.

This is a viewpoint from a post-singularity world; to get there, however, you have to be able to survive the singularity in the first place. There is no clear path from an economy of scarcity (what we have now) to an economy of abundance (a post-singularity world). The closest things we have to guideposts are science fiction stories in which someone implements a technological generational leap, and then gives it away to everyone, whether or not everyone wants it or not.

Barring that, we will have a short term centralization of wealth as automation centralized control of the means of production. The closest thing to a non-singularity bootstrap patch to get us over that divide would be declaring a flat or linear single slope tax, start it at some minimum income, and for people below that minimum income, the government makes up the difference so that everyone below the line hits the line, regardless of their contribution (or outright detriment) to society. That particular patch would have the highest probability, in terms of avoiding outright revolution, for the majority to at least live past the point of singularity.

So you can't discount economics, unless you are willing to accept a large-scale die-off (many malthusian minded environmental groups have already advocated this without advocating it directly (that would be politically suicidal), but the key to recognizing them is any statement that "Earth is nearing/over its carrying capacity", or words to that effect. What you can do is design strategies within the existing economic system.

As for our (as in the first world) motivation for doing anything in the foerign policy arena, I'll call bullshit too. We might be invading countries to keep them from bombing us, but that does not make it anymore right than what these people have been doing to us. Violence breeds violence. If a group feels that they have no venue to speak in, that noone is listening, yes violence will ensue. That does not legitimize responding in kind. Not ever. Provide a venue for people to be heard and feel like they are being heard and I will promise you that the level of violence will drop.

I think you did not read me correctly. My statement was more to the effect that interventionist policies to enforce our idea of correct social, economic, or moral behaviour on external polities have triggered reprisals. This is not to say that we should, as a people, be insular, but we can't dictate policy. The more effective we are in our intervention, the more disenfranchised the people who disagree with these policies become. Eventually, from despair, they believe that they might be better off dead, and, if so, exercise their ability to take as many of the people they perceive as oppressors with them as they possibly can.

I have absolutely no doubt that, had there been no safety valve of "Conscientious Objector" during the Vietnam war, and no safety valve of "escape to Canada/elsewhere", those people who were being forced into a position of violating their moral code would have taken the military training forced on them and excelled: they would have been the best soldiers they possibly could be, the best marksmen, the bess killing machines the training could make them. And then they would have turned that training not on the enemy they, once weaponized, were intended to be pointed at, but upon those that forced them into the position of violating their moral code in the first place. I have anecdotal evidence to this effect in the form of statements from people who used both types of safety valve.

The point being is that it's not possible, nor is it desirable, to legislate morality. Ultimately, the only laws which are effective are those which agree with the fundamental laws of the universe, since the physical universe does not believe in arbitrary enforcement; you step off a cliff, you fall. No exceptions for a senators son.

Comment: Re:Noted that no event is yet scheduled for the US (Score 1) 43

by tepples (#43761111) Attached to: Happy Culture Freedom Day!

How was it the "cover story" if that's almost exactly how it's worded in the constitution of Slashdot's home country? Let's compare:

"To promote the public good by protecting the interests of creative people for a limited time" --bdwoolman

"To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries" --Framers

Comment: Eventually run out of new works (Score 2) 43

by tepples (#43761057) Attached to: Happy Culture Freedom Day!

couldn't an argument be made that artists are now forced to create entirely new non derivative works if they don't want to license the older ones?

Eventually authors will run out of distinct works to create. See "Melancholy Elephants" by Spider Robinson.

In the diatonic scale, there are seven distinct intervals between pitches, and rhythm can be approximated as either a short or long time from one note to the next. This leaves fourteen possibilities for each note but the last, as the last note has no next note to make an interval or duration meaningful, or 14^(n - 1) distinct melodies of length n. But a song was deemed an infringement for having matched eight notes (Bright Tunes Music v. Harrisongs Music, the "My Sweet Lord" case). This sets n = 8, or 14^7 - 105 million distinct melodies. There are already far more people than that on this planet.

Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 460

by KeensMustard (#43760927) Attached to: CO2 Levels Reach 400ppm at Mauna Loa For First Time On Record
I notice that you've edited out certain sections of this discussion, and chose to reply to others without addressing the question. So we'll start with these items, which I have numbered for your convenience

1. [re: your theory that climate sensitivity to CO2 varies as a function of time] Specify the exact nature of this variance, and describe the cause, detail your observations and cite the paper in which your work was published:

In other words, show working.

2. [re: Your theory on AGW falsifiability] Will falsifying a single model falsify the whole theory of AGW? Answer yes or no, otherwise I will assume one as the lie, and the other as your actual view.

3. In one of the following post you told a lie. Which one of these statements is a lie?

(a) Here, you claim that the theory of AGW is not falsifiable: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=3738299&cid=43695417 [slashdot.org]

(b) Here, you say it is: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=3738299&cid=43731895 [slashdot.org], and you assert that it has, fact, been falsified by means of falsifying a model (the "NOAA 2008 Model")

Answer with a or b.

4. Here, you assert several things that I supposedly said, for the sake of constructing a whole conversation that never, in fact, occurred: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=3738299&cid=43731895 [slashdot.org]

Explain these remarks in detail.

5. Provide this citation:

My argument is that you're claiming that a single falsifiable model makes your whole theory falsifiable

Citation please. Please be sure to find a citation in which I mention "my theory".

6. Provide this citation:

That's not a strawman at all - it is the direct implication of comparing modern CO2 levels with ancient CO2 levels during a higher temperature period.

So according to you, climate models predict that when the CO2 levels reach 400ppm the temperature will immediately rise to the levels of the Eocene. Please cite these predictions.

7. Re: you assertion

Now, if you don't believe that anyone is asserting that in the NOAA brief, please, read it again.

Up to you to PROVE that NOAA predicted what you assert they predicted, that is, temperatures will rise immediately to the levels of the Eocene, once 400ppm of CO2 is reached.

Provide a citation from NOAA in which they predicted that temperatures will rise immediately to the levels of the Eocene, once 400ppm of CO2 is reached.

Comment: Re:I do believe it because it based on sound scien (Score 1) 978

by UnknowingFool (#43760339) Attached to: 97% of Climate Science Papers Agree Global Warming Is Man-made

He said he agrees with that consensus......what exactly is your point?

That you don't know what the hell you're talking about because you didn't bother to read the link that I supplied. Instead you answered with an unrelated link.

A scientist who admits his mistakes is respectable. Lindzen corrected them and resubmitted the paper in 2011.

And it was rejected. The first rejection was due to reviewers. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences felt that one reviewer wasn't qualified enough to review the work and the second reviewer had worked with Lindzen previously. The PNAS suggested four other reviewers. Lindzen protested he hasn't worked the second reviewer in 8 years. Lindzen rejected all but one of suggested reviewers. After some back and forth, Lindzen got two reviewers that he wanted and two others were picked by PNAS. All four rejected his work on a number of factors agreeing that the quality was not suitable and the conclusions were not justified. They all agreed the topic was of interest, but they disagreed as to whether the paper was clearly written or that the procedures were described in detail.

Comment: Re:I do believe it because it based on sound scien (Score 1) 978

by UnknowingFool (#43760203) Attached to: 97% of Climate Science Papers Agree Global Warming Is Man-made
You really need to yourself. Climategate was the deniers like yourself looking for anything that remotely was suspicious. What they found were scientists venting with each other about people like you who misrepresent anything that was said for political gain.

Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct.

Comment: Re:I do believe it because it based on sound scien (Score 1) 978

by UnknowingFool (#43760183) Attached to: 97% of Climate Science Papers Agree Global Warming Is Man-made

Wow you really need to work on your reading comprehension. Richard Lindzen was one of the authors disputing that 97% consensus based on "surveys contained trivial polling questions". The link I supplied has nothing to do with surveys or polling. Lindzen was referring to another study. Please read first. By the way, it's ironic that you mention Lindzen because he agrees with the basic premise of climate change: 1) it's happening and 2) humans are a likely cause:

Dr. Lindzen accepts the elementary tenets of climate science. He agrees that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, calling people who dispute that point “nutty.” He agrees that the level of it is rising because of human activity and that this should warm the climate.

Lindzen however thinks that warming isn't a problem because the clouds would save us in a controversial "iris" theory which he admits had serious flaws.

Dr. Lindzen acknowledged that the 2009 paper contained "some stupid mistakes" in his handling of the satellite data.

Thanks for playing.

A committee is a life form with six or more legs and no brain. -- Lazarus Long, "Time Enough For Love"

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