Ethanol just barely produces more energy than goes into making it.
Then pick a different carbon neutral fuel, I don't care.
I'm not aware of anything significantly better. Most of the carbon-neutral fuels produce a fraction of the energy that goes into making them. Technically speaking, so does ethanol, but we pretend it doesn't, because we ignore all the sunlight used as energy input. Carbon-neutral fuels are still in that "theoretically possible, but completely impractical" stage, where the cost to produce them and the energy loss involved makes them utterly infeasible as a real-world replacement for motor vehicle fuel.
I tried to pick a carbon neutral fuel that would not be objectionable enough to illicit resistance but I guess I chose poorly. The point is getting to a liquid carbon-neutral fuel to replace gasoline than focus on the singular solution of the BEV.
We absolutely should be doing that research, and various companies are. But until there's some reason to believe that they will be successful, we can't count on that as a solution to the problem. More to the point, as long as actual gasoline is legal to sell, the only way those synthetic fuels will ever be viable is if they are cheaper than gasoline, and there's almost no chance of that happening, in practice. Even ethanol is more expensive. E85 has 71.1% of the power of gasoline, but costs 80% as much. The only reason anyone uses this stuff is because of government mandates to do so.
We can work on more than one solution at a time, and we should be looking for more than one solution at a time in case something comes up to impede any one solution. But then the replacement fuel for gasoline doesn't have to be liquid, only that makes the transition easier. It could be gaseous instead but that can cause engineering and logistics problems we won't need to adjust for if using something liquid at atmospheric pressure and any temperature we could expect to be driving in.
Gaseous energy sources are likely infeasible, because if you want to actually power a car with it, you're going to need it to have high energy per unit volume in the car's gas tank, which means compressing the gas, which wastes huge amounts of energy. We tried this with hydrogen, and the losses from compressing the gas alone made it impractical as an energy source even before all the other systemic losses from fuel cell efficiency, electrolysis, etc.
I think you're mixing up AVGas with jet fuel. Jet fuel is kerosene. A car can run on AVGas. Running a car on kerosene would likely require *major* changes to avoid the fuel prematurely detonating on compression, because kerosene is roughly the equivalent of 15-octane gasoline. I mean, I guess you could put a lot of lead into the fuel...
No, I'm thinking kerosene. I was going to go into explaining how this works and then realized you aren't likely to be receptive to it.
I'd be curious to hear it. My first inclination is to believe that you'd either have to inject the fuel at detonation time (which seems likely to damage the injectors) or massively reduce the compression, which would give you less power. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I'm having a hard time believing it should be done or that consumers would want it.
Then is the larger issue you missed that the process of synthesizing jet fuel can be modified in trivial ways to produce a thinner grade of fuel than jet fuel for replacing petroleum based gasoline, or a heavier grade for replacing petroleum based diesel fuel. The US military has trucks that run fine on jet fuel, it's part of their logistics planning. If the civilian world wants the same kind of ease in logistics then we can do what the military does to their engines. Maybe that is "major" changes to the engine but once the changes are made, and mass produced by the millions, the cost of the change is lost in the noise.
They modify diesel engines. For the same reason the market has rejected diesel cars, they will reject those. I'm pretty sure it's not a solution for replacing gasoline, unless by replacing gasoline, you mean after replacing the engine and the entire fuel system.
Most folks who have ever actually spent time driving a BEV will tell you that we passed that point a decade ago, with the exception of that last part (price).
Right, and price is a relative non-issue when people buy a vehicle? Have you met people before?
I'm not saying it's not an issue. I'm saying that it's pretty much the only remaining issue.
The reality is that BEVs cost more in up-front costs, and probably will for the foreseeable future. So your only two real choices for putting your finger on the scale at that point are to either subsidize BEVs or to reduce the supply of non-BEVs.
Or, don't put your thumb on the scale in the first place, stop focusing on only the BEV as a solution, and consider other means to solve the problem. Raising the cost of vehicles will impact standards of living. Raising the cost of living by government dictate is not likely to go over well with people, and you won't like it when the people are angry with their government. So, don't make the people angry if you don't have to.
Except that none of those alternatives are economically feasible. The synthetic fuels currently being made are about an order of magnitude more expensive than gasoline. If people can't afford an extra $5k on the cost of their vehicles, they sure as h*** aren't going to be able to afford to spend $30+ per gallon for synthetic fuel. A person with average driving habits would break even on the EV in less than half a year of driving.
Wild guess, indeed. In Europe, 15% of new cars sold are currently BEVs. This would mean increasing battery production by less than a factor of 7, and that's not factoring in the fact that an additional 35% are hybrids, which by definition have batteries, just smaller ones. Add those into the current production numbers, and it is probably closer to a 5x increase in EV battery production.
You don't see a problem with a 5x increase in EV battery production? How long will that take? My "wild guess" is taking estimates on a global scale switch to all BEV and trying to limit that to just Europe. But it's not likely to be limited to only Europe, there's BEV mandates of sorts in other parts of the world already.
No, I really don't. Your wild guess is just that: a wild guess. See my comments elsewhere about most of the raw material for batteries being iron, and requiring far less iron than you lose by getting rid of the engine.
I'm going with the subject matter experts on this than take the word of an internet rando. The issue of mining the lithium required is not trivial. Switching to a less energy dense chemistry that uses sodium or whatever will likely lower the price and potentially mitigate the mining issues but it will impact BEV performance that make them attractive, and only create a different kind of problem in building the required refining and manufacturing.
From what I've read, subject matter experts mostly say we can do it, though. It's mostly the auto industry pundits that are saying we can't, and it's because they don't want to, not because we can't.
There is no credible path to producing zero-carbon fuel in the quantities required for worldwide automotive use by 2050 (the zero net emissions target), whereas electrifying nearly all vehicles is almost certainly possible by 2050.
I don't know why you pick 2050 because we aren't going to get to all BEV transport by 2050.
Because 2050 is the EU's target for being net zero carbon. And you're right that we won't hit that. But if all new cars are EVs by 2035, *most* cars will be BEVs by 2050. And by then we might actually be able to produce enough carbon-neutral fuel for the few percent that remain.
There is a credible path to carbon neutral fuels according to the subject matter experts. I'm not listening to an internet rando on this. But I have a tendency to debate them publicly in an attempt to educate others.
*shrugs* It might happen at some point, but after decades of research, it still hasn't gotten much cheaper, which makes me believe that it is unlikely to be commercially viable unless you ban the much cheaper gasoline alternative. And you can't do that unless they can get their production up by many orders of magnitude, and they won't ramp up production to those levels until it is commercially viable, so there's a chicken-and-egg problem. You're talking about what can be done. I'm talking about what will actually work in the market.
Huh? No. I'm pretty sure what the original poster was saying is that only a third of the energy in a gasoline engine makes it to the wheels, and the rest gets wasted as heat. And the energy used to produce chemical fuel from electricity and raw elements results in an additional massive loss of efficiency. So you're talking about using 6x as much input energy in terms of kWh to produce the same amount of locomotion. And honestly, that 2x part seems wildly optimistic to me.
Then don't use electricity, use heat. We use heat from primary energy sources to produce electricity, and in the process throwing away half of that energy as wasted heat. If we use a chemical process that is driven by heat then that's much less energy lost to waste heat. Where do we get the heat then? Geothermal, solar thermal, nuclear fission come to mind.
And by doing so, you prevent using that energy in more efficient ways. We already capture waste heat to produce electricity, and to the extent that we don't, we could. It will almost certainly never be more efficient to use waste heat to produce hydrogen or synthetic fuels than it is to turn that waste heat into electricity and power an EV. Even if your fuel production produces as much energy in the output as it takes in energy input (which seems unrealistic, given the current state of the industry), the energy efficiency for converting the synthetic fuel to locomotion from a gasoline engine would still destroy efficiency so badly that various thermoelectric energy capture strategies going into BEVs would be more efficient. And it gets worse when you factor in real-world efficiency for synthetic fuel production.
Unless you can find a way to make that additional *huge* increase in power production be from 100% green sources, you're almost guaranteed to make climate change worse. And even if you can find a way to produce the new power in a 100% green way, you'd still be massively better off by switching to battery-electric vehicles that would use a sixth as much energy per mile of locomotion, because then all that extra green power could replace a large percentage of existing non-green power consumption used for other purposes.
Again, I'm going with the subject matter experts on this. Electricity production, and energy production more generally such as industrial heat, will be a problem either way.
So because we can't solve the whole problem, we shouldn't solve any of the problem?
The claim we could get to zero fossil fuels by 2050 is a pipe dream.
Carbon neutrality, not zero fossil fuels.
But we actually know how to build batteries in quantities. It's just a matter of doing it.
You aren't getting that if it were possible then we'd have done it already. With all the desire and incentives for BEVs we would have seen a far faster switch to BEVs if we knew how to do it.
What are you talking about? We do know how to do it. Car companies have a strong disincentive to do it. Dealers don't want to deal with EVs because they make most of their money on service, not on sales. EVs have much lower service needs. Dealers are therefore strongly incentivized to tell people that they don't want an EV, and to not carry them on their lots, so much so that many folks who want to buy an EV have had a really hard time doing so. This is well documented.
The auto industry didn't even start taking EVs seriously until a few years ago. EVs were mostly compliance cars. And at least in the U.S., nobody but Tesla was building HVDC charging in the quantities needed to get the job done, so eventually the entire industry basically threw up their hands and gave up and switched to Tesla's charging system.
This is not evidence that the problem is hard. This is evidence that the manufacturers dragged their feet as hard as they could to avoid doing it.
We don't know how to produce gasoline in large quantities from electricity, only in small lab experiment quantities. Think about the state of lithium ion batteries in 1980, and we're roughly at that point right now with synthetic fuels.
Again, using electricity is the wrong thinking here, we can use heat that is cheaper than electricity to power the chemical reactors. To claim we don't know how to make this work on industrial scales is laughable, it's been done on industrial scales for nearly 100 years. The process is used to make lubricants mostly but shifting the process to fuels is trivial, and would be economic if petroleum prices rise high enough. With "high enough" being a doubling than a 10x that critics claim. Once ramped up and on industrial scales we should be able to expect the costs to creep down with optimizations and economy of scale.
*shrugs* You still need a source of raw materials to feed into that, and this is where a big chunk of the energy gets spent.
And there's also the problem that the cost of synthetic fuels is way, way too high to compete against oil, so short of governments either banning oil or subsidizing it, you probably won't see much real-world reduction in carbon emissions from synthetic fuels over the next several decades.
One last time, I'm going with the subject matter experts on this than the word of internet randos.
One last time, you're going to have to give me some actual citations, because what I'm saying is consistent with what I've read on the subject.