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Comment: Re:Established science CANNOT BE QUESTIONED! (Score 1) 718

by Magius_AR (#48663983) Attached to: Skeptics Would Like Media To Stop Calling Science Deniers 'Skeptics'

Another denier argument. All models are far from infallible. They're models; an imperfect representation and they always will be since, at least in this universe, since it is impossible to obtain perfect information about a system. The aerodynamic models for jet aircraft are wrong. The models for bridge and building stability are wrong. Every single one of them are wrong. However, just because a model is wrong doesn't mean it isn't useful. All models have errors, and by accounting for those errors a model will still yield predictive skill. Error analysis is very important in modeling and is used constantly to establish everything from structural integrity limits to likelihoods of future droughts. It's a fundamental component of numerical analysis.

That's not a denier argument. It's perfectly valid to question the models. Just because our "best available evidence" leans one way doesn't make it 100% infallible proof. Not too long ago, scientists figured out they were vastly overstating temperatures over time because they didn't fully understand the heat sinking capability of the oceans (the whole "where's the missing heat?" debate). That variable alone completely rewrote the book on future projections of climate based on current CO2 numbers. Denying global warming may be dumb, but questioning the suppositions and conclusions drawn from the current level of "100% faith in the models" is another. I give different levels of credence to "string theory" and "quantum physics" and "gravity" and "evolution" for very good reasons. Some are rock solid with hoards of reproducible evidence and sustainable models. Others are borderline guesses with models changing annually. Stop pretending that the current "best guess" of scientists is infallible proof.

Comment: Re:"Could", (Score 1) 400

by Magius_AR (#48630175) Attached to: The Shale Boom Won't Stop Climate Change; It Could Make It Worse

There where no dire predictions made decades ago about present time.

I beg to differ. This is Hansen alone: http://themigrantmind.blogspot...

There have been tons of dire predictions, from "+2 degree global temperature" to "sea level rising by a foot" to "the polar ice caps melting by 2013" (to be fair, that one was Gore). Global warming advocates have been overpredicting for years: http://images.dailytech.com/ni...

Comment: Re:"Could", (Score 1) 400

by Magius_AR (#48613857) Attached to: The Shale Boom Won't Stop Climate Change; It Could Make It Worse

none of the dire predictions has materialized. The predictions are that in FUTURE we have trouble. OFC they have not materialized that. What is your STUPID point? You had several opportunities to offer the requested counter-examples, but failed. Neither did I fail nor had I the chance. WE are at 2014 right now, not at 2050. IDIOT!

Are you not familiar with the term "moving the goalposts"? Dire predictions were made decades ago about present time that have not occurred. Why would we have any faith that the current dire predictions would then occur? They've been claiming the sky is failing as long as I can remember. And when it doesn't happen, they simply spurt out "well, wait longer...it's coming...eventually" You don't see the problem with that line of reasoning?

Comment: Re:What a partisan, biased summary (Score 1) 739

by Magius_AR (#48328959) Attached to: Statisticians Study Who Was Helped Most By Obamacare

Just because you and your friends live in a consumer-friendly state where your insurance commission would never allow such plans, does not mean they did not exist.

And your examples of widespread cases of the contrary? I'd honestly like to see them. Because if we spent hundreds of billions of dollars and screwed over the healthcare plans of a majority of America to solve something that was happening on some limited scale, I'd say it at a minimum did more harm than good.

Comment: Re:What a partisan, biased summary (Score 1) 739

by Magius_AR (#48314133) Attached to: Statisticians Study Who Was Helped Most By Obamacare

You misunderstand (sorry I wasn't more clear), when we talk about junk plans being "capped at $10,000/year", we're talking about plans where the $10k cap was on what the insurance company would pay, not what you would pay. That's right, there were plans which would pay $0 after the first $10k in a year, leaving you on the hook for every single penny above $10k. (Although $20k was actually much more common; but the $10k plans did exist.)

I hear talk of these claimed "junk plans", but haven't heard a single case of a person who actually had one, yet alone in any degree of widespread use. My plan stated in writing what my out of pocket max was (as did every insurance plan I was aware of), and it wasn't "whatever was left after the insurance company cap hit". Perhaps it's possible the hospitals were left holding the bag, but it was not the individual. Again, if you can point to widespread examples to the contrary, please do. But I certainly neither experienced nor knew of a single person who had such a plan.

Comment: Re:The more things changes... (Score 1) 401

by Magius_AR (#48306123) Attached to: US Midterm Elections Discussion

The 2013 shutdown came about because the House Republicans refused to do their job by producing a budget, sending negotiators to the joint House-Senate conference, and voting for the COMPROMISED budget.

You only believe that budget was a compromise because you lean left. Mandatory spending was almost entirely untouched and the ratio of tax hikes to spending cuts was nowhere _near_ what Republicans wanted. Look at today: tax revenue is higher than ever and mandatory spending is higher than ever. The Republicans got nothing of what they wanted because Dems wouldn't truly compromise. "Compromise" to them means cutting $500 and raising a billion through taxes. And somehow the Republicans still shoulder the blame for that shutdown. If Dems wanted to fund ACA so bad, they should have found a _dollar for dollar_ substitute in cost cutting. It's bullshit to add hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending onto the books and then claim you're "cutting expenses" when you trim 50 billion somewhere else.

Comment: Re:the usual loaded language (Score 1) 739

by Magius_AR (#48306005) Attached to: Statisticians Study Who Was Helped Most By Obamacare

Obamacare doesn't redistribute from "the wealthy" to "the poor". For "the wealthy", health insurance is an insignificant expense.

Insignificant my ass. If you think anyone making over 93k in any urban center (California, NY, wherever) can afford an additional 5k a year in medical expenses without breaking a sweat, you're seriously deluded. Or perhaps you'd like to redefine "wealthy"? Obama certainly did.

Comment: Re:What a partisan, biased summary (Score 1) 739

by Magius_AR (#48305977) Attached to: Statisticians Study Who Was Helped Most By Obamacare

Calling those plans "junk" was a euphemism. They were outright bullshit bordering on fraud. So, if a 20-something has a catastrophic event, how much will he be helped by a plan that is capped at $10,000/year?

I beg to differ. Before ACA, I had a HDHP HSA that was capped around 5 or 6k a year for my family. Now it _IS_ 10k a year, and my premiums are higher (all because I don't fall within the preferred "subsidies" segment of our society)

Comment: Re:This is silly (Score 1) 720

McDonald's posted 5.5 BILLION in profit for 2012. They can pay their workers (well) above minimum wage.

They're a large company with a large number of employees. Economies of scales matter. Paying $15 minimum wage for instance would mean a 50% reduction in profit: http://247wallst.com/retail/20...
The Walmart case is even worse, at 80% profit lost.

That's a big deal. You're not talking pennies.

Comment: Re:Politics (Score 1) 384

When has he ever tried to work with Congress you ask? TRY EVERY TIME. From the begining, he has tried to work with Congress.

I'm sorry, but no. Unilaterally writing bills and expecting your opponent to come on board when you give the smallest of nods to their ideology is not working together. He said it himself: "They can come along, but they have to sit in the back". The Democrats (including Obama) assumed the 2008 election was a mandate on their policies (rather than the anti-Bush movement it really was). As such, they had no intention of giving serious attention or equal time to any Republican ideas.

But every time he offer an olive branch they petulently slap it away, because to them the definition of compromise is "we get everything we want, or else."

It's very ironic that you say that, because I see the exact thing happening on the other side. And if you go by what actually _passed_ into law, Obama is entirely getting his way, as we've seen no substantial spending cuts (Mandatory spending remains entirely untouched), and taxes have been hiked about 3 times (once in Obamacare, once at the fiscal cliff crisis, and I forget the other time).

while Obama did have the stronger hand, he was willing to make concessions to gain passage of the bill, and ended up having to do exactly that. To earn the bare minimum of Republican support needed to get the bill past a Senate filibuster, the White House had to swallow steep cuts to state education programs and other liberal priorities.

The _entirety_ of education spending is a rounding error in the federal budgets. Look at the amount of dollars raised from the tax increases. Then look at the amount of dollars that came from reduced spending. And you'll clearly see why the Republicans balk and demand more concessions. This isn't a 50-50 effort. Obama wants 5% spending reduction and 95% tax hikes. And he's getting it.

âoeWeâ(TM)re not here to cut deals and get crumbs and stay in the minority for another 40 years,â Cantor said at the time.

I don't blame him after observing the last 6 years of one-sided partisan billcraft.

President Obama sought out the Republicans and asked them for ideas during the drafting process.

Again, you're nuts. The Republican ideas were summarily rejected. He was giving lip services at best. You forget this bill was written while the Dems held a supermajority in Congress. The final bill was 100% written behind closed doors by Democrats, _not_ a bipartisan committee.

Comment: Re:Emails didn't get lost? (Score 1) 392

Speaking as a die-hard liberal, Obama has screwed up a fair number of things. He was also handed a really bad situation, with the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent botching of the occupation, and the collapse of the mortgage industry and effects across the whole economy. I'm not sure a president since Lincoln has stepped into a worse situation.

I don't buy it -- that excuse stopped working when he hit term two. GW Bush had to deal with the dotcom collapse. Reagan had to deal with the savings & loan crisis. Many presidents don't have the best starting territory. Some have fantastic starting territory and get lauded in spite of it (see Clinton during boom times).

Trying to "excuse" a failure in office because of situational considerations is Rationalization at its finest. Always someone else to blame.

Comment: Re:It's a bad sign (Score 2) 223

by Magius_AR (#47891895) Attached to: U.S. Threatened Massive Fine To Force Yahoo To Release Data
You're part of the problem and you're wrong, because you're only focused on short-term thinking. Change is slow, and a vote matters even if you don't win "today's election", because it's public opinion and sentiment that matters. The parties _mold_ themselves around it. If they know they can get you to continue to vote for them without changing, they'll never change. The entire fact that libertarians are on the rise now in the Republican party is because a movement was started and maintained back then, even knowing they weren't going to sweep/win any elections: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Comment: Re:Not flat. (Score 1) 233

I think there are two main factors driving this: - Up until about the 70s, there was no competition for labor...the US was its own market and very few people ever even left the country for extended periods. - The labor/management balance has shifted dramatically in favor of management.

Actually, I believe the main cause was women entering the workforce. In our parents and grandparents time, most married women didn't work. Now they do. Effectively, we now all work twice as much to get the same stuff simply because inflation has made it that way.

Comment: Re:Sigh (Score 1) 748

by Magius_AR (#47710223) Attached to: News Aggregator Fark Adds Misogyny Ban

It's the literal definition of bigotry - a general dislike of a large group for reasons that have nothing to do with anything that group can control, or anything that applies to all members.

Actually the definition of bigotry has nothing to do with whether you can control it or not. In fact, the term bigot originated with hating heretics and foreigners: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

It can apply to anything from "I just don't like republicans" to "I just don't like religious zealots" to "I just don't like rich people" or "I just don't like Americans" or "I just don't like nerds". Blanket dislike of groups of people exists all over the world, many times for things out of their control. Often it's because of behavior exhibited by their group. But that could be applied to homosexuals as well, at least of the flaming variety.

I also find it odd that you believe you can just easily choose your personality/political views/religion (particularly personality). Alot of that stuff is really baked into a person through their life experiences. You can't just wake up one day and "be different" with the flip of a switch.

A method of solution is perfect if we can forsee from the start, and even prove, that following that method we shall attain our aim. -- Leibnitz

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