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Crime

Journal Journal: How Dangerous is Being a Cop in the US? 15

How Dangerous is Being a Cop in the US?

I saw a posting on Facebook (which I can no longer find, because Facebook posts are ephemeral and the algorithm used to put things on your timeline is apparently unstable) talking about the cost/person of police departments in major cities throughout the US. In the comments was the question "how much do you pay someone to risk getting shot every day?" with the implication that your average police officer in the US faces a substantial risk of death by gunfire daily, and therefore whatever the costs were, they were a good value.

And that got me thinking. Always a dangerous place for me to go.

How dangerous is it to be a police officer in the US? Is there significant risk of dying by gunfire? How does it compare with other occupations?

So let's go.


How many police officers are there in the US? How is that number changing annually?
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 780,000 "Police and Detectives" in the US in 2012. That's our baseline. That number, BTW, is expected to grow by 5% by 2022, totaling about 821,000 by then. I'd love more data about this, but it's all I could find in a quick search, so we'll consider 780K as our baseline number of police in the US.


How many police officers died in the line of duty in 2012? Was that number "typical" for the years around it?
According to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, 122 officers died in the line of duty in 2012. That number is low compared to 2010 (161) and 2011 (171), but high compared to 2013 (100), so let's dig a little deeper with a graph:

Police Deaths by Year 1990-2013

Graph by Evan Robinson

Frankly, I think I see a slight downward trend in the data, but the math says otherwise. There's virtually no correlation between passage of time and number of police deaths. I note that 2001 (241) is quite an outlier. You have to go back to 1981 to get another year where more than 200 police died, but in the 70s, only 1977 (192) had fewer than 200 police deaths. The 70s were far worse than the 60s, which were worse than the 50s.


What's the chance of death in the line of duty for a police officer in the US? What's the chance of death by gunfire?
If there are 780,000 police officers in the US and 159.4 die annually (the mean from 1990 and 2013 inclusive), the chance of dying is 159.4 in 780,000 or 1 in 4892.8 or .0002. That's about 2 hundredths of a percent. Specifically taking 2012 numbers, it's 122 in 780,000 or 1 in 6393 or .00016, or about 16 thousandths of a percent. But let's take the higher number of 1 in about 4890, again .0002. Expressed as a death rate per 100,000, that is 20.4 -- that is, 20.4 of every 100,000 police officers in the US die annually from line-of-duty causes.

The overall annual death rate in the US for 2010 (the most recent final value I can find according to the Department of Health and Human Services, at the CDC website) was 747.0, with a preliminary value of 740.6 for 2011. So police line-of-duty death rates are about 3% of total mean death rates.

Police line-of-duty deaths, while tragic, are not a significant risk compared to mean death rates in the US.

But wait, we want to talk about gun-related police deaths, right? Again according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, in 2012 50/122 officers killed died from gunfire. Over the past decade, the mean percentage of officer deaths from gunfire was 36%. So the gun-related death rate is 20.4*.36 = 7.4 per 100,000.


How do these death rates compare with other ages, causes, and professions?
In 2008 (the most recent year for which data in a complete Statistical Abstract of the United States is available), the only age range to have a death rate anywhere near that low is 5-14, where the male death rate was 24 and the female death rate was 12. Police officer line-of-duty deaths are therefore less common (statistically) than any death of 5-14 year old boys, although more common than 5-14 year old girls. Line-of-duty gun deaths are about one-third as common as all deaths of 5-14 year old boys and about half as common as all deaths of 5-14 year old girls. In 2008, the mean death rate for males 25-35 (in which age range I imagine many police officers fall) was 225. For males 35-44 it was 348. So depending upon their age range, police officers are between 10x and 17x more likely to die from non-work-related causes than line-of-duty causes. And 30x to 47x more likely to die from non-work-related causes than line-of-duty gunfire.

In 2006, comparable causes of death to all line-of-duty deaths include: Heart Failure (excluding ischemic heart disease aka "a heart attack") at 20.2; NonTransport Accidents (including falls, drowning, smoke inhalation, fire/flames, and poisoning) at 24.4; Diabetes at 24.2; Alzheimer's disease at 24.2; Drug and Alcohol induced deaths (combined) at 20.2.

Also in 2006, comparable causes of death to gun-related line-of-duty deaths include: prostate cancer at 9.5; Leukemia at 7.3; Falls at 7.0; Alcohol induced deaths at 7.4.

According to preliminary data for 2013 (see page 14), the rate of "fatal occupational injuries" in Construction is 9.4 per 100,000; Transportation and Warehousing is 13.1; Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting is 22.2; Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction is 12.3.

In other words, it's as dangerous to be a police officer as it is to be a farmer (3 million people), forester or logger (1.7 million people), commercial fisherman (1 million people) or hunter (about 14,000 people). So there are over 5.7 million jobs in the US more dangerous than being a police officer. And another 6 million in construction, which has a higher death rate than police gun-related deaths.


What's it all mean?
So yeah, being a police officer is a dangerous job, but the job-related danger is much less than your basic life-related danger (health problems, general accidents, etc.). And there are about 7 times more people doing Ag-related jobs which are more dangerous than being a police officer.

So what do we have to pay these people to risk being shot every day? I'd say a mean of about $57K per year, which is what they get. Maybe we need to raise the pay of the people in Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, who get mean annual wages in the $18K - $41K range for more dangerous jobs.


TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read)
I realize that putting the TL;DR way down here kind of defeats the purpose, but it allows me to put the conclusion after the work, which I like.

Being a police officer is a dangerous occupation. But there are plenty of people in the US who do more dangerous jobs for far less pay. Police line of duty death rates are comparable to death rates from Diabetes and Alzheimer's disease or the combination of drug and alcohol induced deaths. Police line of duty shooting death rates are comparable to alcohol induced deaths, Leukemia, or death by falling. A male police officer between 25 and 44 is many times (10x - 17x) more likely to die from a non-work-related cause than to die in the line of duty. And only about one-third of those line-of-duty deaths are gun-related.

And here's something else to think about
On average a police officer dies in the line of duty in the US about every 55 hours (everything you need for this calculation is above so I'm not going to insult your intelligence by including it). On average a police officer kills a civilian (about 400 annually) about every 22 hours. So I think we have more to worry about from them than they do from us.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Ben Bernanke tries to refinance for 3rd time in 5 years, turned down. 8

So Ben Bernanke tried to refinance his home for a 3rd time in 5 years, and got turned down. Guess what, Ben? You shouldn't be treating your home as an ATM.

Bernanke reportedly bought his home in 2004, slightly before he was named as America's top central banker and the man with more control over lending rates than anyone else on Earth.

He refinanced the home in 2009, then again in 2011. And based on his comments this week, it appears he was rejected by a bank when he tried to do so again recently.

"Just between the two of us," Bloomberg quoted him as telling the audience. âoeI recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so."

When the comment drew laughs, he added "Iâ(TM)m not making that up."

"I think itâ(TM)s entirely possible" that lenders "may have gone a little bit too far on mortgage credit conditions," he said.

I guess the 1%ers still think that absolutely none of the rules don't apply to them, and that banks should continue to make risky loans to them, just because of who they are.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Coupon sites dealfind, teambuy bankrupt, bought by Ncrowd 1

Less than 2 weeks ago, the company that owns discount coupon sites dealfind.com and teambuy.ca filed for bankruptcy. People who had bought discount coupons aren't getting refunds from either teambuy or the individual merchants (who are also refusing to honor the coupons).

Deal-lovers who bought everything from tooth whitening treatments to digital cameras on DealFind.com and TeamBuy.ca are angry about getting burned along with some merchants after the cut-rate online coupon sitesâ(TM) insolvency filing in Canada.

One of Canadaâ(TM)s largest coupon websites has filed for bankruptcy protection, leaving customers stranded. Couch Commerce Inc., the parent company of Teambuy.ca and Dealfind.com, went into financial restructuring in Canada under the Companiesâ(TM) Creditors Arrangement Act on Aug. 29.

This month, it sent form-letter emails to customers, saying they could not get refunds related to any purchases made on or before that date. Nor could they use any credits issued on or before that date.

The new acquirer, ncrowd, currently has an empty FAQ page, so former dealfind and teambuy customers need to rely on blogs and the press for information.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Is Windows 10 really that "business friendly?" 3

Sure, the conventional start menu is back, but the live tiles off to the side are going to present two problems for business, who will probably want to lock that feature down tight or remove it entirely. I can't picture employers wanting their employees to customize the menu so that they can see their facebook, twitter, or other social media feeds. And I don't think employers want every supplier of data to a live tile to know every time the user clicks the start menu.

Sure, you could set a time between refreshes (but that sort of defeats the whole concept of a "live" tile), but the suppliers of the data feeds are still going to have some idea of when the person starts work, etc.

Back when businesses first integrated Windows into their workspaces, there was a tremendous waste of time by employees playing solitaire and arranging the desktop the way they liked it, always fiddling around with the wallpaper and icons. And then the web came along, in many ways making things worse. And smartphones. Live tiles are going to be yet another distraction. Every time a user goes to start another application, they're going to be presented with several opportunities to look at something else instead. Distractions lead to mistakes and lower productivity, and businesses will be paying for this. So too will employees who find themselves out of a job because they get caught up in the "new shiny" to the point where their work suffers.

At least with Windows 8.1, you can disable showing the start menu by default and never see a live tile. Unless Microsoft provides a way to completely lock down or disable tiles in the start menu, I don't think Windows 10 is going to be classifiable as "business friendly".

User Journal

Journal Journal: Example of a legitimate use for Tor 1

Found this in the Firehose. Hope it makes it to the front page, because in some jobs, and some parts of the world, being "stealth" when you're trans is the only safe option How Tor protects and serves transgender service members.

Last year, for example, a Navy cryptologist named Landon Wilson was put up for promotion while serving in Afghanistan. The recognition of ultimately backfired: As the paperwork was prepared, colleagues found out that Landon was born a girl and was thus was a transgender man. He was fired despite his prowess and the resources the military had poured into training him.

and

Other soldiers claimed they were forced to bury dead bodies and take on other punitive duties after their gender identity had been outed.

Multiple women [serving in Afghanistan] have told me that they were suddenly put at the head of their supply convoys every week until the end of their tour, with the idea that if there were an [explosive device], theyâ(TM)d be in the position that would be struck by it,â

Pretty good argument that not all users of Tor are doing it to hide acts of wrongdoing.

The Matrix

Journal Journal: The Matrix is Mimetic 13

As Yuval Harari points out, "What is so special about us that allows for such cooperation? Unflatteringly, it is our talent for deluding ourselves. If you examine any large-scale human cooperation (or co-option), you will always find some imaginary story at its base. As long as many people believe in the same stories about gods, nations, money or human rights (memes and antitropes) - they follow the same laws and rules (of conduct)."

https://www.coursera.org/course/humankind

User Journal

Journal Journal: Yes, SimCity 2k is beatable. 5

While looking around for a minecraft clone so I could see what the hype was about, I came across something called Dwarf Fortress. The New Yorker describes it as SimCity's evil twin.

And some games werenâ(TM)t allowed in at all. These gamesâ"most notably the immensely popular SimCity, as well as its lunatic homemade successor Dwarf Fortressâ"were deemed âoetoo complex or too time consuming,â and are represented only by noninteractive video displays. This is about as satisfying as looking at pictures of food, but it is also in a perverse sort of way a real tribute: these games are still too big, too stubbornly new and strange and mysterious, to fit into a museum just yet. They canâ(TM)t be sampled; you must surrender to them.

Designed by Will Wright, who had made only a single previous game, and first released in 1989, SimCity casts the player as a slightly supernatural city planner, laying out roads and power plants and building zones in a simple, brightly colored interface with a distinct resemblance to MS Paint. You choose tax rates and ordinances from a series of menus, and try to balance traffic and property values and pollution and dozens of other factors on the way to creating a successful cityâ"with the definition of âoesuccessfulâ rather up in the air. It has no âoeend,â no plot, no set goal: you play until you are bored, or until your city seems to you to be perfect or maimed beyond repair. Along with its increasingly pretty and complex sequels (the 1994 SimCity 2000 is the one chosen for âoeApplied Design,â

This canard still persists today. I know it can be beaten - I did it, and it's simpler than I thought.

First - the background. Back when my retinas were getting lasered on a regular basis, I would fire up SK2k in an emulator under KNOPPIX. This gave me a chance to focus on large graphics on a large screen, instead of stuff like fonts. It worked too - my eyes would recover after a few days of intermittent gameplay.

So, since SC2K had always held a certain fascination for me, I determined to beat it. Without bothering with complications like variable tax rates for different industries, etc.

It turns out that the real limiting factor is good old H20. Starting with a flat world and enough water available in rows in the center, you never have to add any more water. Why in rows? Because your pumps benefit from having water on 6 of the 8 adjacent tiles, giving them the best space/capacity trade-off. Why in the center? Because you'll put your industries along the edge, so half (or more near a corner) of your pollution goes to your neighbors, instead of spoiling your water supply.

You do NOT need a seaport. Ever. Or a marina. And you can ignore most of those "Commerce needs new connections" messages.

The optimal grid is 9x9, surrounded by roads on all sides. Continue this pattern, even through the water area (a grid of 9x9 blocks of 9x9), surrounded by a ring of 9x9 blocks for commercial / sports development later in the game. Leave enough of a gap for a set of highways to go from one edge of the screen to the other (forming a huge # sign), by working from the edge to create more 9x9 blocks.

DON'T draw all the roads right away - just lay them out as you need them, otherwise you'll go broke.

If you build police departments, fire departments, schools, etc. as required, you will eventually "break the simulator" Turns out (it's in the docs) that there are only 150 "mini simulators" in the game. You'll know when you're broken this because the next launch arcology will fill up immediately. Do this a few times, and you can start eliminating public utitilies, schools, etc., to increase revenue even more.

Once you have built and populated enough launch arcologies, you'll get the "The exodus has begun" dialog. Game over.

It took me 24 hours, going from 1900 to 26-something. I took a load of screen-shots, to document progress, and saved the game almost every "year", just in case that last run hadn't worked, but it DID!

United States

Journal Journal: FDL Nails It: Superpower Performance Art

'The Cause Of Empire Leads To The Graveyard'

"This is a vision of the world in which might makes right - a world in which one nation's borders can be redrawn by another, and civilized people are not allowed to recover the remains of their loved ones because of the truth that might be revealed. America stands for something different. We believe that right makes might - that bigger nations should not be able to bully smaller ones; that people should be able to choose their own future...

America is and will continue to be a Pacific power, promoting peace, stability, and the free flow of commerce among nations. But we will insist that all nations abide by the rules of the road, and resolve their territorial disputes peacefully, consistent with international law. That's how the Asia-Pacific has grown. And that's the only way to protect this progress going forward."

User Journal

Journal Journal: We've gone past "good enough" computing ... 7

Time was when most of us were complaining about needing more ram, more cpu, more storage. Today? Computers are cheap, fast, multi-core, more energy-efficient than ever, with more storage than many of us will ever use ... and by the time we fill up those huge hard disks, we'll just buy a newer, faster computer with several times the storage and even more ram for less.

And if that's not enough, there's online storage. It's not just Linus Torvalds who can say "Only wimps use tape backup: real men just upload their important stuff on ftp, and let the rest of the world mirror it." Everyone does it - even when they really shouldn't.

"Fast, good, cheap - pick two?" Not any more. For most users and use cases, we really can have it all, literally right in the palm of our hand if that's what we want. Sure, a lot of the old skills that were needed when hardware sucked are now obsolete, but I for one don't miss those days. Not when I can concentrate on doing what I want instead.

User Journal

Journal Journal: I'm dismayed at how many of the old gang are gone ... 7

I took another poster's advice and went through my two dormant accounts and friended a bunch of my old friends. But looking at the date many of them made their last post or last journal entry, it looks like many of them are gone, probably for good.

On another note, I simply don't have time to read, never mind respond to, AC posts any more. I know how disappointed that will make a certain individual (and everyone else will be going YAY!!!! FINALLY!!!! :-)

So what's next? All I can say is that I guarantee it will probably be more interesting than anything I've journaled about so far. I just haven't quite decided where to start, because it's a bit more complicated than anything else I've written about to date.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Victims of technological change - why haters gotta hate. 54

Curiosity works for a lot of us. We're willing to turn aside from the tools that work for us for a bit, even build up some technical debt in our area of expertise, to explore some new technology that might in the long run prove beneficial, or at least interesting (and if you're a curious person, poking around stuff that's interesting is FUN).

And yet, we probably all have areas where we're a bit of an iconoclast. And technology is littered with people who just refused to accept change, and became irrelevant. We don't code everything in assembler, or c, or c++. Even I use java (gasp) on occasion. But what happens when the computing environment becomes so user-centric (a GOOD THING) that people are free to choose what works for them without having to seek the advice of self-anointed gurus whose advice is no longer relevant?

We should ask ourselves why "haters gotta hate"

Sometimes those "gurus" fail to move on, becoming more shrill with every passing year. It's a personal thing for them - they cling to what used to work because that's all they have. They become trollish, haters, because if they're forced to realize that their life's work is now worthless, what will they have left? What WILL they do? They know in the back of their mind that they're too far behind to catch up, so this fear drives them to become even more rigid in their views.

Which brings us to Alexander P Kowolski, the HOSTS file troll.

Here's a guy who posts up to 100 anonymous responses a day, going through my posting history to crap-flood every discussion. I think this response sums up the problem pretty well, at least from my perspective:

Well, since you FINALLY asked how you are absurd:

1st definition of absurd from google: Ab-surd: (of a person or a person's behavior or actions) foolish; unreasonable.

Going through every post I make in every thread, posting multiple responses (up to 100 posts a day) attacking me based on my gender (including in a thread about sexual harassment) - I think that most people would qualify your behaviour as both foolish and unreasonable.

Getting all bent out of shape when someone exposes your bullying tactics and then tells other people how to do the same to you - both your original bullying and your response when you get it thrown right back at you are foolish, unreasonable, and just plain childish.

Saying I'm stalking you when it's obvious you're the one doing the stalking - foolish, unreasonable, and more than a bit delusional. Oh, and your paranoia is showing.

Thinking that attacking me because I'm transsexual is going to get you anywhere on a tech site, when tech attracts a higher-than-average number of people in the LGBT community, as well as sympathizers, is foolish. Continuing it day after day when it doesn't work is not just unreasonable, it's stupid and/or insane.

Clinging to arguments for your HOSTS file that are completely orthogonal to today's reality, and that obviously the vast majority don't care about and don't need because they have found better ways to solve their own problems, is foolish on it's face and unreasonable to those looking on, who use their computers just fine without your "solution."

Going on about how "taking estrogen is rotting your brain", that "you're crazy to have cut your balls off" (btw - I'm not a surgeon, and I don't pretend to be one on the innnertubes), when I'm following expert medical advice that has a proven track record of success, well, that's both foolish and ridiculous.

The problem isn't your hosts file - it's your behaviour, which certainly is absurd, and probably disturbed as well.

That leads to another question - why? What is it about me in particular that sets you off worse than anyone else? Is it me, or do you have a problem with women in general (I seem to recall some attacks you made on other women who have challenged you that would indicate that this may be the case)? Do you think that men are superior to women, and that anyone who willingly "trades in" to become a woman is stupid because you have a low opinion of women?

And that, of course, brings us back on-topic - the "science has a sexual assault problem". You don't seem to be capable of the introspection necessary to realize how absurd your behaviour is. How many other women have you felt it's your right to attack, and still continue years later, about their sex, gender, or sexual identity, just because you disagreed with their opinion on a technical issue of absolutely no import to anyone but you?

He has time and again failed to realize that people who use alternatives that work for them, such as adblock, don't give a damn about his stupid hosts file and the supposed benefits. It's THEIR computer, and they're free to use what works for them - and it's NOT going to be his HOSTS file. And crap-flooding discussions with challenges to enter some useless "pissing contest" of the benefits of one over the other is irrelevant to pretty much everyone except him. So why do it? Perhaps because he is so psychologically invested in his world view that any alternative is just too scary.

So why "feed the troll" by posting a journal entry about him?

That's a valid question, for sure. But if you see him as a victim of technological change instead of just a troll, it might help put some of the other "wars" on slashdot into perspective. We get comfortable with our niche, change happens, and we have to, once again, learn a whole new slew of technologies. The prospect can be daunting, sometimes it's just a feeling of "oh heck, here we go again, change for the sake of change yadda yadda yadda ...", and it's easier to say "I'm just going to stick with what works" ... until one day we wake up and realize we're in danger of becoming totally irrelevant.

It can happen to any of us. Did it happen to APK? Or was he always like this? I don't know, and I don't really care. Either way, the lessons to be learned are the same. Haters gotta hate, because if you take that away from them, they have nothing to fall back on. They are more to be pitied, same as many of the opponents of same-sex marriage, now that they can't bolster their own sense of self-worth by hating gays and lesbians, are feeling a bit lost.

User Journal

Journal Journal: I'm back. 39

I can see well enough to use a computer again, which came as a welcome surprise. Huge thanks to the retinal surgeons who patched my left eye back into some semblance of working order, and to the work over the last several years by the team of ophthalmologists and tech assistants who helped preserve much of the sight in my right eye.

It's been an interesting experience so far, and one that I have learned a lot from. I've been told that the betting money would be on my retinas being relatively stable for the next two-three years, though the vitrectomy was such an insult to the lens that I can expect to need it to be replaced in the next year or so.

The more things change, the more they stay the same ... especially here on /., where APK wasted no time claiming that various anonymous posters were me. Comments like this one must be driving him even nuttier - will he be accusing that poster of being me?

Only on slashdot :-)

Unfortunately, I never expected to use a computer again, so I don't have the passwords to my old accounts (neither my original one, nor the one I created with a gender-appropriate nic after I was outed as a transsexual). I'm sorry for the inconvenience. Just like I'm sorry that I wasn't able to keep people up to date before falling off the face of the net.

There are still plenty of challenges ahead, both near-term and long-term. And plenty of unanswered questions that I will do my best to clear up. I was going to do it elsewhere and just post links, but really, this is home (despite the beta crap).

The Military

Journal Journal: James Foley Is Not a War Ad 11

by David Swanson / September 13th, 2014

                               

To the extent that the U.S. public is newly, and probably momentarily, accepting of war -- an extent that is wildly exaggerated, but still real -- it is because of videos of beheadings of James Foley and Steven Sotloff.

When 9-11 victims were used as a justification to kill hundreds of times the number of people killed on 9-11, some of the victims' relatives pushed back.

Now James Foley is pushing back from the grave.

Here is video of Foley talking about the lies that are needed to launch wars, including the manipulation of people into thinking of foreigners as less than human. Foley's killers may have thought of him as less than human. He may not have viewed them the same way.

The video shows Foley in Chicago helping Haskell Wexler with his film Four Days in Chicago -- a film about the last NATO protest before the recent one in Wales. I was there in Chicago for the march and rally against NATO and war. And I've met Wexler who has tried unsuccessfully to find funding for a film version of my book War Is A Lie .

Watch Foley in the video discussing the limitations of embedded reporting, the power of veteran resistance, veterans he met at Occupy, the absence of a good justification for the wars, the dehumanization needed before people can be killed, the shallowness of media coverage -- watch all of that and then try to imagine James Foley cheering like a weapons-maker or a Congress member for President Obama's announcement of more war. Try to imagine Foley accepting the use of his killing as propaganda for more fighting.

You can't do it. He's not an ad for war any more than the WMDs were a justification for war. His absence as a war justification has been exposed even faster than the absence of the WMDs was.

While ISIS may have purchased Sotloff, if not Foley, from another group, when Foley's mother sought to ransom him, the U.S. government repeatedly threatened her with prosecution. So, instead of Foley's mother paying a relatively small amount and possibly saving her son, ISIS goes on getting its funding from oil sales and supporters in the Gulf and free weapons from, among elsewhere, the United States and its allies. And we're going to collectively spend millions, probably billions, and likely trillions of dollars furthering the cycle of violence that Foley risked his life to expose.

The Coalition of the Willing is already crumbling. What if people in the United States were to watch the video of Foley when he was alive and speaking and laughing, not the one when he was a prop in a piece of propaganda almost certainly aimed at provoking the violence that Obama has just obligingly announced?

Foley said he believed his responsibility was to the truth. It didn't set him free. Is it perhaps not too late for the rest of us?

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