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Comment Re:Will chatbots be smart enough? (Score 1) 61

Well, Microsoft has accumulated an incredible mountain of technological debt and cannot keep its cloud or its OS secure. Eventually this is all going to come crashing down and everybody will need to move to better tech or die. Many will die.

You are correct though, competently done IT looks different. Competently done IT has second-sources for any critical product and a replacement strategy for any outsourced service. Of course, competently done IT needs competent IT people and IT leadership. Those seem to be increasingly rare.

Comment Re:Why? (Score 1) 175

Well, yes. Taking decisive action in the 1960s would have been the "extra careful" route. Acting decisively in the 1980s would have been the "regular rational" route. Both would have come with plenty of time and a quite benign outcome. That is one is far out of reach now. Well, "Big Oil" will be cursed so many times in the future for what they did that I wish cursing somebody had a real effect. These people will be responsible for more death than any other group in human history ever.

Comment That does not sound good... (Score 2) 49

For something like that to happen, you usually need 3 or more mistakes by different people. Either Google has inadequate safeguards in place (very, very bad), or they do have people incompetent enough that all made a mistake here (very, very bad) or both (worse).

This looks like tech-rot to me, where "managers" try to make things cheaper until they are done cheaper than possible and then crap like this happens.

Comment Re:Why? (Score 1) 175

You are not wrong. But all these things require understanding of what is to come to justify the effort. Only about 20% of all people are accessible to rational argument. (Incidentally, about 80% of the human race are religious and hence essentially believe in fairy-tales...)

That number is not enough. If we had enough rational people, we would not even be in this mess, as the models were pretty good in the 1980's and all this crap could have been nicely avoided with a determined effort starting at that time. Instead, some things happened but they are not nearly enough. And now it is too late to avoid a really big catastrophe. But look at all the deniers and all those that still make things worse and you realize the human race as a whole will continue to make things worse until it cannot do so anymore. Current projections are already up to 2.5C and that is only with decisive action now.

Does it look like there is decisive action now? Not too me. This will get worse and worse until people start to die off in masses. Which will happen. The only real question is whether a few 100M will be left or whether nobody will be left. And if people are left, what tech -level they will have. The most resilient for of human existence is nomadic. That comes essentially with a peak-technology of light blacksmithing because you cannot carry complex or heavy equipment.

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The aim of science is to seek the simplest explanations of complex facts. Seek simplicity and distrust it. -- Whitehead.

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