The majority of people are going to take the least expensive option. If companies form to operate massive fleets of self driving cars that can reach you In a timely fashion and charge fees below the cost of owning a car, owning a car will suddenly become a luxury.
Precisely. Its cost driven. The fact of whether or not a car is self driving really isn't part of the equation one way or the other. Admittedly self driving cars DO allow potentially for the cost of using a fleet subscription to drop since its easier to get the cars to and from where you want them inexpensively -- they can now potentially drive themselves -- at least that's the dream.
And see that just it... we're much closer to self driving cars with at least a human in the backseat taking a nap "just in case" then we are to self driving cars, that shuttle about completely empty -- because if ANYTHING happens ... say a road closure and police are directing traffic, we're still miles away from self driving cars beign able to cope with that. So if it needs to pull over, wake the driver up, and say... "Hey buddy you need to drive a minute" that's fine... but that kills the "car shows up to pick me up and then then goes back to the depot after it drops me off" scenario.
This conversation reminds of one here about HDTV years ago when they were hitting the market. Most of the comments were along the lines of "my tube TV is great, those new fangled overpriced HD sets will never catch on".
I think you are mis remembering. Nobody thought HDTV wasn't going to go gangbusters. There was TONS of HDTV content available just begging for TVs to catch up. DVDs were 720p for years before the average person had an HDTV to get the most out of them. Sports networks were starting to do 720p. When 42" HDTVs dropped under 3K the writing for tube TVs was on the wall.
We shit all over 3DTV and were right about it. We're not convinced 4K is going to be a must have anytime soon. (due to relatively low gain in visuals and tv viewing distances, and the dearth of 4k content. Long term sure we'll get there... but there's no real urgency for it.
But HDTV? We all knew that was going to go big the minute it was affordable.