I'm specifically trying to determine the number of actual women on the site as opposed to fake accounts. I'm not interested in, and cannot guess, their motivations for being there. The data does not provide a way to estimate that and, again, I'm less interested in opinions than statistical evidence.
One CAN determine to an extent their level of engagement. Never checking the inbox, or sending messages tells us a LOT.
Obviously, I disagree, and a statistician would agree with me.
A statistician would tell you that there are between 0 and 20,000,000 women on the site with an VERY high level of confidence.
They would agree with you that there are between 12,000 and 2.1 million with a high level of confidence; based on the paid deletes and the fact that it is a wide range.
And they would agree with me that there are between 5,000 and 15,000 women ENGAGED with the site with a high level of confidence, based on the strong evidence of a total lack of engagement with the site from the overwhelming majority of female accounts, despite it being a much narrower range.
You're looking at this from a psychological perspective, and I'm looking at it from a statistical perspective. That's the difference.
Not really, I'm looking it from a statistical perspective too. I consider the paid deletes to be something of an outlier; and don't see any evidence to support an assumption that men and women would pay to delete in the same proportion.
Further I am more specifically interested in female accounts that are ENGAGED with the site, as opposed to those who merely had accounts, but clearly did nothing with them, since they never checked their inbox or sent a single message.
I freely admit I am speculating that millions of those un-engaged accounts don't really even belong to women. But lets say I'm wrong and they were created by 'real women'... so what? they weren't checking or responding to messages.
Its misleading to the point of fraud to mischaracterize that many users. Facebook sells advertising based on the number of people on the site, and so forth. People buying the ads know that some percentage of those users aren't real and facebook acknowledges this... but you pay for "millions of users" and you expect to reach "millions" of users. It might not be quite as many millions as they have users, but it should be in the right ballpark. If it came out that only a few thousand people on facebook actually were seeing the ads you were paying for instead of the millions they promised? That would still be fraud.
Similarly, AM was charging money to send messages to millions of women on their site, while they had actual knowledge that only a few thousand were actually even looking at messages... that's fraud in my eyes. And they were withholding that information to entice men to spend more money sending more messages to women that weren't receiving them. That they KNEW weren't receiving them.