Sony To Go From First To Worst? 224
There have been many analyst predictions in the early days of the next-gen consoles, but rarely have they been so direct. DFC Intelligence President David Cole has gone on record saying there's a very real possibility Sony could lose this leg of the race to Microsoft and Nintendo. From the article: "Sony's clear strength is the first factor: brand strength and current market position. The glaring weakness of the PlayStation 3 is price, especially when compared to the competition. However, it is more than just an issue of whether the PlayStation brand strength can justify a premium price. Of course, Sony would like to point to the hardware horsepower and extra features like Blu-ray. The problem is that is only one factor in our forecasting matrix. Furthermore, with the competition having features like Xbox Live and the Nintendo Wii controller, the PS3 may not have that much of an advantage in the elusive 'Wow Factor.'" 1up Editor Sam Kennedy has further musings on this subject, with Next Generation reporting that there may be a problem getting high yields in the PS3 production process.
The Problem is ... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Its only a battle for the second place (Score:5, Insightful)
Pure Fun: Nintendo
FPS/Action: Microsoft
RPG/Story: Sony
Each of the big 3 attracts these types of games to their console because that has been what sold the console in past. Nintendo also get a nudge towards innovation and niche, as well, but until the Wii comes out, that nudge isn't strong enough to make someone buy their console.
Sony isn't worried (Score:5, Insightful)
What I don't understand... (Score:5, Insightful)
Instead they say the same Lies they said when defeating the dreamcast, and release a slightly more powerful but not in any significant way PS3 to fight the XBox at pushing twice the price (in the UK) a year later.
But this time we know that Sony is dicking us around. It won't go well for them.
P.S. I haven't ignored the Wii - I just don't believe it relates to these two machines anymore. Thankfully - which will hopefully means more people will give nintendo a chance this time round.
Zonk the anti-sony boy. (Score:0, Insightful)
You can't solve for both x and y in terms of neith (Score:4, Insightful)
There's more than these gaming factors that's going to contribute to how Sony places. The HDDVD market will influence this as well. One of the primary functions Sony seems to have planned for the PS3 is market penetration for its Blue-Ray player. They've sacraficed things like cheap price and possibly even earlier release to include the Blue-Ray player. If the HD format war doesn't flop out; it could become an important factor as those who what HD have to decide if the PS3 with Blue Ray or Microsoft with an accessory HD DVD (or internal HD DVD for the 360 if you think like Toshiba: http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3151889 [1up.com]) This have anywhere from a huge to an insignificant effect on what the Console war. It really is more of a Great Home Entertainment War rather than a format war and a console war; they are well intertwined.
Or atleast, they will be. I speculate that the Format side of the GHE War will slog along in a prolonged sitzkrieg for a year or even more before it starts to pick up as more consumers finally migrate (slowly) along to HD. With the sitzkrieg on the format front, Sony's Blue Ray justification for its price will languish; costing it valuable ground against Microsoft's established console (which I might mention consumers may enjoy not having HD DVD costing them up front when they don't need it yet; they can upgrade on their own terms, possibly cheaper than buying Blue ray before they need it.) Once the Format front picks up, the Console side will invigorate to as Sony's console will likely have come down atleast some, becoming a more economic competitor. That's the Great Home Entertainment War solved for X in terms of Y.
But, as I said, you can only solve for X in terms of Y and vice versa. It's really anybodies guess what the effect Blue Ray and HD DVD will have. Then their is the Z factor...Nintendo. But, I've already talked about what possibilities Nintendo can have, both on consoles and on HD Formats http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=188332&cid=15
Re:I disagree: market segmentation (Score:2, Insightful)
Was this sarcasm?
Geeks, please don't respond that you love Nintendo... we all know that many of you don't care about things like story. I'm talking about MOST adults.
Yes, geeks don't like story. That is why they don't bother to read not only Lord of the Rings, but also all the other Tolkien books, letters and journals to get more into Middle-Earth. That is why there is hardly any backstory to Warhammer. That would be why there are only a few Star Wars Expanded Universe books. That is why Dungeons & Dragons has so little source material. That is why the original Half-Life did so poorly.
[T]heir profit margin is going to be significantly better than either MS or Nintendo with this generation.
MS I can understand, maybe. Nintendo only sells their console for losses for a few months each generation, and at that usually only in the single digit losses -- as in $1-$9 per unit. Sony and MS both lose hundreds of dollars on each unit.
It's fine if you feel like you have to spend a lot of money on "mature" things to boost your ego. The rest of us will base fun on things other than "mature content" and price.
Re:I disagree: market segmentation (Score:5, Insightful)
Nintendo is still for the kiddies. They have gimmicky controllers with a Fisher-Price look and feel.
The Lite and Wii do not look like a fisherprice toys. This only shows you bias.
More importantly, most grown-ups don't want to play Mario anything
My flatshare consists of mid-twenties adults, and my girlfriend, all of who aren't geeks (I hide my true self from them). And they almost only play games with Mario in. Mario Kart, Super Mario Bros, Wario Ware etc. And even games with silly little kiddy Monkeys like Monkey Ball. An Aside: Monkey Target is the most popular game I have even seen with actual Adults - I have seen it devour entire weekends of non-gamers.
I'm talking about MOST adults.
No. You. Are. Not.
Nintendo focuses on twitch games that generally skip story altogether, or have some bizarre Japanese theme that most adults can't figure out.
Fire Emblem, Zelda, Advance Wars, Geist, Metroid, Paper Mario (though that is a bit bizzare) all disagree. You also seem to forget that other people deveolpe for Nintendo consoles: Resident Evil 4, Phoenix Wright, Trauma Centre, Second Sight, Prince of Persia, Killer 7 and so on.
Also there seems to be a big theme of hating Japanese games through your post - but you do realise that Sony and most of it's "AAA" games are in fact Japanese?
The X-Box has moved in to the mainstream generic person arena
That doesn't even make sense. The XBox is a great machine - but you can't pretend it's in anyway mainstream - like I would be fool to pretend the gamecube was. But still I would expect mainstream to at least mean it also appealed to women, and men.
Also, people like me, who want more out of a video game than a twitch reflex also want a good story with movie level production value. I'm not interested in the typical Japanimation demon/dragon/kid hero story that is as embarrassingly bad as it is incomprehensible. I want good gameplay out of a game, of course, but I also want mind-blowing graphics and sound (The PS3 is supposed to be, unquestionably, the most powerful system). My game system gets plugged into a high-end amp and speaker system, and a high-end TV. I want all of that, packaged with a story that was written and created by somebody who speaks English (not Engrish), and some good Hollywood actors. I could care less about $600 or even $800 for a game box. And, I couldn't care less if the games are $70 each. It's worth it because 1. I've seen more games than most people have and 2. money really isn't an issue to me at this point. I just want the best.
I think that speaks for itself - get over yourself. Your awesome - we understand.
Re:Sony isn't worried (Score:1, Insightful)
And I'm supposed to be so excited at the prospect of watching a handful of expensive BluRay disks (of things I doubtless have on DVD already) that I'm going to rush out and pay $500 for a PS3 (actually a lot more, since I live in rip-off Britain where the PS3 will be more like $800), when I don't even have an HDTV yet?
I think not. Anyway the time that HDTV market penetration is sufficiently high that a lot of people will want BluRay players and that movies are starting to appear on BluRay exclusively, the Chinese imports will be flooding the player market at a fraction of the cost of a PS3.
And that's assuming BluRay doesn't turn out to be the new Laserdisc.
Grief, if this is what they're betting the firm on, I'm glad I don't have any Sony stock.
Re:PS3 killer games (Score:3, Insightful)
Of course, I say this knowing that the easiest way to kill off the PS3 would be for Bungie to release Halo 3 the same day the PS3 launches, although I'm not sure if it'll happen or not.
Re:Sony's running by the wrong strategy (Score:4, Insightful)
You've missed the biggest selling point. Every title/developer that made the Ps1 and Ps2 the most successful consoles of all time is still on board for the Ps3...nobody's jumped ship and there are more exclusives than you think. If you enjoyed FF, Gran turismo, Metal Gear, Shin Megami Tensei, Shadow of the Colossus, etc...guess which system you have to buy to keep playing the games you enjoy? for a LOT of people (especially if those people are in japan) there IS no alternative to the Ps3, since certain franchises and genres just won't show up on the 360 or the Wii.
Prices come down over time. The Ps3 is being launched aiming squarely at the early adopters and hardcore fans that were paying $600 and $700 for a system on ebay, only many, many more of them as sony's install base is substantially larger. As price drops occur, more casual fans will come on board. This is the way console launches ALWAYS go.
also, the Ps3 doesn't NEED a "halo." Microsoft had TWO and they were still utterly, totally crushed last round. The titles they DO have (or are expected to have) are more than sufficient.
BluRay is hardly useless to those like myself for whom DVD is insufficient on our television sets. for me and other early adopters I'm curious to see what it can do. As for the Ps2, I was in retail at the time it launched stateside in 2000 and there were a LOT of people who used the Ps2 as their primary (or only) DVD player. As player prices came down out of the stratosphere and into the $99 and $50 range, this became less common. Plenty of houses have 2 or 3 DVD players including consoles.
Blu-Ray won't go exactly the same way as it's in a different stage of its lifecycle than DVD was when it launched, but even those who have never heard of it but might want a Ps3 will more than likely buy or rent a disc just to see what the fuss is about if they have access to an HDTV. The Ps3 exists just as much to push the Blu Ray format as vice versa.
Price isn't usually an issue for early adopters ESPECIALLY during holiday season, as the buying frenzies on ebay for the Ps2 and 360 prove. Those machines were going for easily double MSRP. And if someone enjoyed the games the Ps2 had to offer and wanted a "top level" console, they sure as hell wouldnt just "buy a 360" as the franchises they like aren't likely to appear there. (especially, once again, if said gamers happen to live in japan)
Re:Geeks and story (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:I disagree: market segmentation (Score:3, Insightful)
First, on the current generation: I don't get why you think X-Box has "moved in to the mainstream generic person arena." That would be the PS2. The X-box has carved out a niche of FPS players and American RPG fans, and is struggling with other genres. The PS2 is what most people think of when they think "video game machine" these days. The PS1 basically invented the concept of a console as a generic appliance for adults, and the PS2 succesfully extended that franchise. The PS2 has much, much higher sales rates, it's demographics are much wider, and has a wider selection of games.
Nintendo is the console for people who don't mind playing video games, and don't need the words "combat" or "warrior" in the game's title. That's probobly why they have higher sales in Japan than in the States.
Your argument about being an "adult demographic" with lots of money to throw around sounds a lot like what Microsoft were saying when they were hyping the X-box rpior to launch. I suppose it's not suprising that you like both PS3 and X-box, then. But that strategy worked horribly for Microsoft, who found out that:
1) There aren't that many rich adults who want to spend big bucks on games, especially when the PS2 can grab the cheap/simple market and the PC can grab the expensive/complex end of the market.
2) Kids actually have more buying power than adults because they can get their parents to buy games for them. It's way easier to nag your mom into buying a machine than convincing your wife/gf that it was a great idea to get one. Plus, there are way more kids who want to play video games than there are adults who do.
3) If your consoles are going to sell fewer units(because of a smaller market of adults), you need to either sell more games per person, or increase the price per game. The former you can't do because game-playing adults often have less time to play games than kids, and the latter ends up restricting your audience to richer folks or pushing them to cheaper consoles(PS2). Oh, and smaller market = less developer interest.
For above reasons, the X-box's original marketing strategy failed, and now they have to play second fiddle to Sony. Interestingly, Sony seems intent to follow them with the PS3. If it weren't for the terrible impression left by the X-box(especially in Japan) and anticipation of the Wii/Ps3, I suspect X-box 360 would be able to grab the Ps2's spot as the 'generic' console of that generation.
Oh, and given the cost of creating games these days, it's quite possible that there won't be much of a difference between XB360 and PS3 games. Its really takes a lot of skilled artists and programmers to take modern consoles to the limit of their graphics, and it may not be worth going to the PS3's capabilities past the XB360's.
Re:Stop beating around the bush (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe for you in USA there isn't, ask any gaming Japanese and I'm sure they will think different.
"no Blue-Ray"
What? Are you only trolling?
"no "it's-not-a-console-it's-a-computer""
We don't know that yet do we? If it comes with Linux and you can start up a desktop it is, isn't it?
"PS3 is too expensive"
It probably have better hardware than the X360, it's backward compatible I think which means it has a shitload of games, it's price aren't much over X360 premium and I think online gaming is free, you get a next-gen DVD-player and a real HDMI-output.
"the performances are worse than xbox360"
Says random dude on the Internet?