Journal zogger's Journal: China starting the switch to a more internal market 6
This is what I have been saying for some time now, to watch for the economic tipping point when China will no longer really require the markets in the already developed nations so much, which will also correspond with the *rapid* decline of the now gutted and dysfunctional bankrupt nations who are existing on credit, and not "making stuff". I mean, here it is, in your face, we are at that tipping point now. I've been watching this for a week now and it appears this is the point.
As China finishes building up its manufacturing base, across the whole spectrum of industries, it ceases to have a need for maintaining markets where they acquired such tech from. That was just an absolutely necessary but temporary first step, if you can accept the word temporary on an historical time scale of a generation and now some change. It's taken them thirty years, but they are "there" now.
They have been exporting for cheap, so they can turn around, reuse those foreign currency units, and buy more tech, and more and more and more. That's what they buy, factories, machine tools, designs, all the good stuff, or just snag it, whatever it takes, and bring it back to China where it gets cloned and mass deployed.
Once the reach this plateau of having "enough", this artificial need to maintain the markets they currently are using now starts to go away, and they only need to start developing their internal market more, and switch to those external markets *that supply them with natural resources*.
Those two markets will be large enough for them to easily achieve and maintain global topdog position, and anything else is pure gravy.
Just swapping goods for printed up paper was their short range mass buildup plan, because they needed that tech from the western developed nations first, and to get it, they had to use those nations currency units. See how that worked? Well, they got it..that part is done "enough" now, (also proven by them being able to accumulate so much foreign capital they have to scramble to find places to stick it now, that's more than enough proof right there) so they can be a little bit more forceful on the global scene. This is the beginning of their real mass expansion stage now.
This article goes into what is happening there, and how they are slowing down their exports a little, and also stopping buying so many financials, as they raise internal wages, so that their internal market can start taking over from export, or better stated, serve as the catalyst for economic force multipliers internally.
This is what the US had way way back when we built everything, and sold it to ourselves. It worked so well we could also export everything and we became the largest creditor nation, the richest nation ever. It worked for us then, until we just handed to China for cheap the bulk of the manufacturing (with Europe just a little bit behind us there, Germany will be the last holdout), so it will work triple plus good for China now, they are just so much larger, larger than the EU and the USA combined.
And their "where they get natural resources from" market they can export to now is all of Africa, South America, and a few more interesting places, like Canada and Australia and take your pick middle eastern oil exporters, and here and there and elsewhere, Russia for example. That's a HUGE market, once you add all that up, they no longer absolutely "need" the USA or Europe. Not saying they will immediately just dump the USA and europe as a market, of course they won't, but now that they no longer need it so much, they will be using some more hardball economic tactics because they can't be hurt very much now by ANY retaliatory move. It is past that point now, so they don't have to care. They can now leverage their mass manufacturing wealth creation position politically.
Economic MAD is no longer in force. That concept is just slap over. This has *profound* implications.
They will keep taking as much R and D as they can of course..but they don't need those two markets much anymore either. They'll just keep taking, because they have been allowed to, so why would they stop?
It's a smooth move, real dang smooth, and the most logical one they could have taken, and the only thing surprising to me is it has taken a shorter time period than what I originally thought, and I felt there would have been a series of huge populist protests inside the US before now as the economy got worse and worse, with such political concerns causing shifts in policy. Nope, didn't happen, won't happen now, and even such things as the tea party movement are already compromised. I'll have to address that some time later, too complex, but the bottom line there is just every avenue of protest or actual high level policy change is severely compromised now, ineffective, and will remain so, and will not happen. The last ditch gambit there is breakup of the Union, which now becomes a higher probability.
The next important thing to watch for is a really large mass emigration of people from China all over, moreso than now, much larger. When they hit that expansion phase the global scene will get dicey, as in security concerns dicey, it can go either way, all the way to resource wars, or it might get diffused somehow, but I think the next stage will be over resource control, with a lessening of emphasis on financial products.
I thought, after my first large analysis, that this expansion phase and resource war potential timeline would occur around 2014, but I will bump that up a couple of years now.
moof (Score:1)
Please do address some time how the tea party movement will fail, and how secession can succeed. I was with you, in understanding and (total) agreement, until there. And how is a big ole honkin' wave of Chinese emigration become a war over resources? Do you think they'll move in to areas and then begin to steal resources and ship them back to the homeland?
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As for Chinese ac
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Tea party movement had potential when it was "none of the above" run of the mill normal politicians, a true centrist/constitutional type movement. It's being hijacked by the same sort of old tired neocon republicans now, especially with the adoption of palin, etc. They *needed* to stay non aligned, bottom up, grassroots focused, with no big single named "leaders" in the traditional party sense. They are going to marginalize it with that move, many non aligned and dems won't consider participating because of
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I don't agree with the extent of the way you're describing it, but I caught Mrs. Palin's speech at some supposed tea party convention recently, on C-SPAN one night, and do think that that was not good for the movement. While she has some history of being a fairly independent and common-sense Republican, which plus her star power makes her attractive to teabaggers, I do believe I've heard that she's going to be stumping for McCain over the tea partyish candidate running against him, I'm picturing his face bu
No leaders (Score:1)
I listened to the same speech and also agree with your assessment of the tea party movement and its current demographic. It *needs* to be more inclusive and to stay decentralized. We don't need "leaders", especially ANY of the current crop of named politicians. Leaderless resistance and reform is the way to go.
As to the R party reforming itself..ain't happening, they have been saying that same thing over and over again since the big split in 63-4. The old party is long gone. It's run at the top by cut throa
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I just don't care *how* it's done. You apparently care more about who says something than what's said -- I'm (vehemently) the opposite. You think it should have been Ron Paul instead of Sarah Palin speaking or whatever -- I don't care*. You think the R party should be excluded from the chance to change and host this movement -- I don't care if it's the R party, heck I don't even care if it's a totally transformed D party, or a brand new one, or several new ones. And you and Sarah are thinking it should stay