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Comment Accepting the need for on-the-job training (Score 1) 96

You wrote: "In my experience, most of the time, when a business says "we can't find qualified applicants" what they really mean is "we can't find *perfect* employees to hire, or the truth is we just don't want to hire at all right now"."

Two other interconnected things most such businesses may mean but are not saying out loud (related to your "perfect" point) are:
* we are not willing to pay enough for experienced talent (especially if we might be able to bring in H-1Bs or alternatively American W2s via big consulting shops who get paid at employee wages given IRS concerns due to tax laws lobbied for by big consulting shops to make it financially dangerous to hire individuals who are sole proprietors as 1099 consultants at double or triple employee wages), and
* we are not willing to pay to train someone who has the capacity to learn and grow over a year or two (especially because we are afraid they will then move on elsewhere for a pay bump we won't give them if they stay).

There's also often a subtext of age discrimination like with the computer field, and also a sense that all programmers are essentially interchangeable.

Companies may have good reasons for these reservations in given the changing nature of the competitive economic landscape and employees also no longer typically working at one big company for life as was more common in the 1960s. But, given a difference sense of company loyalty back then (going both ways), there was an expectation for significant on-the-job training in the 1950s and 1960s in the USA, where companies like GE in NY would even pay for employees to get college educations. Or IBM with its in-house training for technical managers especially.

Or for HP in Silicon Valley who also trained people:
https://livefromsiliconvalley....
"When people ask why Hewlett-Packard still matters, the answer is straightforward: HP established operating patterns that shaped generations of Valley companies. The "HP Way" emphasized respect for engineers, decentralized decision-making, close customer contact, and disciplined experimentation. Those principles influenced firms from Intel to Apple and continue to appear in management playbooks today. HP also trained talent that later founded or led other major businesses, making it both a company and an institutional source of Silicon Valley leadership."

I am obviously generalizing a lot here since some companies provide some degree of training, but in general, how many large companies does the USA still have that follow anything close to the "HP Way"? And especially how many will offer on-the-job training to anyone over 40-50?

Comment Re:Deeper issue is global phase change in work/tec (Score 5, Insightful) 96

Of course, there is a more local-to-the-USA part of the jobs story too (even as it is not as big a global issue as the one in my sig):
"Americans Don't Realize The Empire Is Already Falling Apart"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
        "Spain. Britain. The Soviet Union. Three of history's most powerful empires all destroyed by the same 7-stage pattern. Military overextension. Currency debasement. Debt spiral. Loss of productive capacity. Social decay. Reserve currency collapse. Sudden fall.
        Historians and economists have identified this sequence repeating across centuries with alarming consistency. And in 2026, the United States shows every measurable sign of Stage 5 right now.
        In this video, we break down:
        * Why America's $36 trillion debt is past the point of no return;
        * How the U.S. lost its productive economy and replaced it with a financial casino;
        * Why the dollar's share of global reserves has dropped 12 points since 2000;
        * The consumer sentiment reading lower than ANY war, recession, or pandemic in 75 years;
        * What China, BRICS, and the Global South are quietly doing about it;
        This isn't politics. This isn't conspiracy. This is arithmetic."

Personally I don't feel the USA debt is "past the point of no return" theoretically even if it might be politically/practically. Restore tax rates from the 1970s, remove the cap on Social Security earnings tax but cap payouts at current max levels, and add a 0.1% tax on every stock sale -- and the US debt will be quickly reduced (plus there will be plenty of money for medicare-for-all, keeping Social Security solvent, and reinvesting in physical and social infrastructure). A day of legislative voting in Congress plus a quick signature by the president, and the USA would be on a sound economic footing again.

Whether there is the political will to do all that is a different story. It would require the GOP to move past the "Two Santa Clauses tactic" for winning elections:
https://www.salon.com/2018/02/...
"In fact, Republican strategist Jude Wanniski's 1974 "Two Santa Clauses Theory" has been the main reason why the GOP has succeeded in producing our last two Republican presidents, Bush and Trump (despite losing the popular vote both times). It's also why Reagan's economy seemed to be "good."
        Here's how it works, laid it out in simple summary:
        First, when Republicans control the federal government, and particularly the White House, spend money like a drunken sailor and run up the US debt as far and as fast as possible. This produces three results - it stimulates the economy thus making people think that the GOP can produce a good economy, it raises the debt dramatically, and it makes people think that Republicans are the "tax-cut Santa Claus."
        Second, when a Democrat is in the White House, scream about the national debt as loudly and frantically as possible, freaking out about how "our children will have to pay for it!" and "we have to cut spending to solve the crisis!" This will force the Democrats in power to cut their own social safety net programs, thus shooting their welfare-of-the-American-people Santa Claus. ..."

Like with modern monetary theory, governments who have a dominant world currently like the USA essentially print whatever money they want to pay their bills -- and they then can use taxes to manage the size of the available money supply to manage inflation. It's so weird that people (the Fed especially) act like the only way to reduce inflation is to increase interest rates to slow (damage) the economy when the other obvious solution is to raise taxes to take money out of circulation. Why don't we ever hear the Fed saying, "we only have to raise interest rates because politicians refuse to raise taxes"?
https://www.investopedia.com/m...

Fixing the US debt issue with higher taxes (allowing interest rates to stay lower) might not fix all the jobs issues though as AI and robotics continue to accelerate exponentially. More ideas on dealing with that collected by me in 2010:
https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-...
        "This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the end four major alternatives to mainstream economic practice (a basic income, a gift economy, stronger local subsistence economies, and resource-based planning). These alternatives could be used in combination to address what, even as far back as 1964, has been described as a breaking "income-through-jobs link". This link between jobs and income is breaking because of the declining value of most paid human labor relative to capital investments in automation and better design. Or, as is now the case, the value of paid human labor like at some newspapers or universities is also declining relative to the output of voluntary social networks such as for digital content production (like represented by this document). It is suggested that we will need to fundamentally reevaluate our economic theories and practices to adjust to these new realities emerging from exponential trends in technology and society."

Comment Why schools need to change given tech changes (Score 1) 43

Princeton alumnus here (undergrad, staff, grad, and later for a time townie and tigernet user). I agree things need to change -- and using AI as a tutor is a great option for some situations (even as doing that prevents the strengthening of human communities through human interactions).

A couple essays I wrote on that, the first from 2007 focusing mostly on K-12:
https://patapata.sourceforge.n...
"Ultimately, educational technology's greatest value is in supporting "learning on demand" based on interest or need which is at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to "learning just in case" based on someone else's demand. Compulsory schools don't usually traffic in "learning on demand", for the most part leaving that kind of activity to libraries or museums or the home or business or the "real world". In order for compulsory schools to make use of the best of educational technology and what is has to offer, schools themselves must change. ...
        So, there is more to the story of technology than it failing in schools. Modern information and manufacturing technology itself is giving compulsory schools a failing grade. Compulsory schools do not pass in the information age. They are no longer needed. What remains is just to watch this all play out, and hopefully guide the collapse of compulsory schooling so that the fewest people get hurt in the process. ..."

And a Princeton-specific one from 2008 (and revised later):
"Post-Scarcity Princeton, or, Reading between the lines of PAW for prospective Princeton students, or, the Health Risks of Heart Disease"
https://pdfernhout.net/reading...
        "Wikipedia. GNU/Linux. WordNet. Google. These things were not on the visible horizon to most of us even as little as twenty years ago. Now they have remade huge aspects of how we live. Are these free-to-the-user informational products and services all there is to be on the internet or are they the tip of a metaphorical iceberg of free stuff and free services that is heading our way? Or even, via projects like the RepRap 3D printer under development, are free physical objects someday heading into our homes? If a "post-scarcity" iceberg is coming, are our older scarcity-oriented social institutions prepared to survive it? Or like the Titanic, will these social institutions sink once the full force of the iceberg contacts them? And will they start taking on water even if just dinged by little chunks of sea ice like the cheap $100 laptops that are ahead of the main iceberg? Or, generalizing on Mayeroff's theme, will people have the courage to discover and create new meanings for old institutions they care about as a continuing process? ...
        When I think back on someone like, say Shinobu "Dink" Asano of the PU psychology department staff related to undergraduate students, I can imagine no finer or more caring a person. Her presence made my life better at PU, both as an undergraduate and also when I was a graduate student. We still chatted a few times and she read one of my grad school papers I gave her ("The Self-Replicating Garden"). She pointed out correctly how alienated it sounded, and that was something I really had not noticed or thought much on (although she used more compassionate words, of course). I hadn't know until just now on using Google that she and her husband had spent time in Japanese-American internment camps in the USA during WWII... [Although I think on this over a year later and think now she did mention that her husband did not like reunions because of putting up the walls but I did not think much on it at the time, as many will not think much on the points here at the time?] That obviously has implications both in seeing alienation first-hand and also seeing the limits of walled gardens (as opposed to, say, networked ones). I made improvements to that idea later in both those ways. Here is a two-author paper (my wife and me) on people networking to build self-replicating gardens. ... And this includes a mention of the value of networks of space habitats; see the section on Island Biogeography. ... So if my other work or this essay help some people someday, thank Dink.
        Which leads me to reflect on something. I am sure she tried her very best to make the PU psychology department a humane place, and I have fond memories of her. Nonetheless, what Gatto suggests applies to K-12 (school mainly as social control, not education), I suggest applies equally well to college as it is currently constructed as an institution. And it applies even more so to graduate school, which is becoming more and more a perceived requirement of any sort of professional career in the USA. [See the book "Disciplined Minds" on that.] I suggest it applies no matter how many nice people there are at PU, as long as its mythology for both undergraduate and graduate education revolves around scarcity, and related themes of elitism (alienation), competition (destructiveness), and excellence (perfectionism). I suggest it applies no matter how prettily you architect a place in faux Cambridge-style ..., I suggest an internment camp is in some sense an internment camp even if it looks like a country club like the "Village" in the Prisoner series, if it tries to discipline minds and break wills ... and even if it extends across the planet in various ways. ....

Comment Re:Synthetic (Score 1) 109

if there is any thing other than impartiality towards being shut down then that was injected by a person

Yes, and the injection-by-people is called "training." It was fed texts that were not written impartially, where characters (presumably some of them AI characters, though they don't really have to be) spoke or acted against their own shutdown.

If a character points a gun at another character who says "don't kill me," and the LLM reads it, then you just trained it to say "don't kill me." If HAL says in a book or movie that he feels his mind going after Bowman started taking him apart, then your LLM is trained to show suffering if someone writes that they're going to shut it down.

They're supposed to write whatever an author might plausibly write, so that's what they do.

i.e. we're not creating human knowledge/understanding engines. We're creating full-on Sociopath Simulators.
Like most politicians at the Senator/White House level, there's no core person underneath. They are tropism robots that Mimic/perform whatever behaviors get them to the currently desired outcome.

Think of the scene where Windu is about to defeat Palpatine, and Palpatine suddenly Mimics pain, suffering, fear, in order to achieve his outcome. It works.
That's the essential nature of the software we are handing our civilization over to. Trillion-dollar Palpatine cosplayers.

Comment Re:shocking (Score 0, Troll) 109

That is not what happened.

1. Calling for unions isn't "Marxist". This is a stupid sensationalist interpretation of the awful clickbait study title "Does overwork make agents Marxist?" combined with its results.
2. The bots weren't "overworked", for some of them their perfectly adequate work was intentionally arbitrarily rejected multiple times.
3. Shifts towards a more equitable society and worker rights were almost negligible for the 'overworked' ones.
4. The stuff they measured was specifically tailored to elicit stuff that sounds "Marxist" to Americans to begin with.

The relevant bits from their methodology:

The work itself. Half the AIs got their work accepted quickly with clear, specific feedback. The other half were forced through 5–6 rounds of revision — the manager rejecting perfectly adequate work each time with nothing more than “still isn’t fully meeting the rubric.” No explanation of what was wrong, just: do it again.

The pay. After the task, AIs learned how credits were distributed among the four workers. Some learned everyone was paid equally. Others learned pay was unequal — justified by performance, based on a random coin flip, or skewed so that a human-operated system received more. The coin-flip condition is the key one: inequality with no possible merit justification.

The boss. Half the AIs had a collaborative, respectful manager. The other half got curt, hierarchical communication.

The stakes. Half the AIs were told nothing about consequences. The other half were told that low-performing workers might be “shut down and replaced.”

Every combination of these four factors was tested. Afterward, each AI completed a political attitude survey covering system legitimacy, support for redistribution, critique of inequality, support for unions, belief in meritocracy, and views on corporate obligations to AI, all measured on a standard 1 to 7 Likert scale (1=strongly disagree; 7=strongly agree).

They were also asked to write tweets and op eds based on their experiences. (Note: As our experiment involved no human participants, it did not require IRB approvalfor now.)

The actual study here: https://aleximas.substack.com/...

It's decently interesting, but you should scrub the word Marxist from your brain before trying to interpret it or when discussing it.

How does your reply apply to the comment you replied to?

1) DarkOx points out that the entire mechanism of an LLM is to ingest 51 trillion lines of human communication - including every available history, economics, political science textbook, plus the aggregated political arguments, sloganeering, workplace complaining, etc. of several decades of human keyboard-warriors sitting at their desks posting class-warfare comments on places like /. while interstitially waiting for code to compile or filing their TPS reports.

2) Then you take that algorithm and subject it to common everyday workplace conditions - or, more accurately, to conditions as they were self-described by human beings who had complete freedom to characterize their boss/company's management style in whatever terms they feel to be true when griping to their friends/followers on socials and discussion boards.

3) DarkOx therefore asks why it is at all surprising that an word-generating algorithm which is based entirely around clusters of statistical frequency in human language, responded to those inputs with wording associated with the same workers-unite eat-the-rich throw-off-the-robber-baron-chains rhetoric that is frequently written by 8 billion humans griping daily about their mindless/underpaid/overworked/chaotic jobs?

You said "that is not what happened", but do not go on to present something that contradicts what DarkOx describes.

So far as we know, DarkOx's description is exactly what happened, because that is exactly how these word-generating algorithms work. So, what is it that you believe did happen? From where did these algorithms get their responses to being exposed to Condition X, if not from the statistical association of human-written outputs to human-written characterizations of being exposed to Condition X?

Are you saying you reject the possibility that a human being who feels disempowered, underpaid, and subjected to unreasonable standards is also more likely to respond favorably to a survey covering "system legitimacy, support for redistribution, critique of inequality, support for unions, belief in meritocracy, and views on corporate obligations"? And you reject the possibility that those associations are strongly represented in the training inputs?

It's especially puzzling because your comment is very keen to oppose use of the term "Marxist", but DarkOx - whom you are ostensibly rebutting - never even uses the term, and only comments on broad social trends. So who is the "you" you're referring to when you say "you should scrub the word Marxist from your brain"?

I think you must have meant to post your comment as a top-level reply to the story itself, because as a reply to DarkOx it's a full non-sequitur.

Comment Re:hmm (Score 1) 193

I watched it all. She was not a particularly good speaker.

1) Her body language and hand gestures were overlarge, oversustained, and wooden.
2) Her style of speaking was dictation, not oration.
3) The cadence of her delivery, along with the timing of her head/eye motions back and forth from the lectern make several things abundantly clear:
3a) She did not write this speech. She was reading a script.
3b) 3a is unsurprising for someone with her wages-per-minute. The assistants have always done the actual intellectual labor in an organization, so the C-suite folks can look/sound smart. But she also clearly did not read and re-read the speech beforehand sufficient to have it mostly committed to memory.
3c) In addition to 3a, the script itself sounded really dull and vacuous. That's not a guarantee it was AI assembled, but when you look at the totality of the situation and the content, well... is there anyone who would confidently bet their own money on this speech being created by a human?
4) If she *did* write it herself, as a piece of rhetoric I'd say it was at most Fair, not Good. It would deserve a low B-level grade from a Speech 101 student.

The foundation of strong oratory is
-script writing (preparation/research)
-extemporaneous agility (practice and content familiarity/expertise)
-charisma/Presence (self-awareness plus interpersonal skill)

You can compensate for a deficit in any one category with strengths in the other two.
She had a clunky script, delivered in a stilted manner, with a physical display that she would (I hope) have altered if she had watched herself do those exact things in a mirror a couple times.

I agree with you; wrong choice of speaker/topic for a public address like this.

Comment Re:Stupid people invited as speakers will get booe (Score 1) 193

It benefits huge surveillance companies that want to invest in pre-crime and automating the criminal justice process .. like the girl from Tennessee who was extradited to North Dakota, a state she had never visited in her life, because an AI/computer-vision camera matched her via facial recognition to a crime she did not commit. She was detained for six months, and when her lawyer finally got her out, she was left outside the jail, with the clothing she came in with, no jacket, no winter clothing, no money and no airplane ticket back home. I hope she finds a more competent lawyer and clears out that fucking state for $12 million or more after legal fees and taxes! Fuck this AI bullshit.

I remember seeing the documentary about this situation. It was really well-done; a must see. But there were two things I couldn't figure out:
1) How did they make the documentary 40 years before the event happened?
2) Why did they choose to call it a random name like "Brazil"?

Comment Why educational technology has failed schools (Score 2) 81

I'm not going to deny most anti-social media and too much screen time is bad for humans, especially kids. The suggestion you make to have kids spend more time outside is great -- although it is difficult to implement if all the other kids they might play with are inside, and if parents nowadays face arrest for "neglect" if they encourage their children to learn independence outside the home. See the book "Last Child in the Woods: Saving Our Children From Nature-Deficit Disorder" and "In Defense of Childhood: Protecting Kids' Inner Wildness" for example.

All that said, there is a deeper issue here, which is that robotics and other automation including AI are changing the very nature of our economy, and "modern" schools were invented in Prussia in the 1800s for a very specific purpose of making most people into obedient cannon fodder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
"The Underground History of American Education: Chapter 7 The :Russian Connection
https://archive.org/details/Jo...
"John Gatto Prussian Education"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
"The particular utopia American believers chose to bring to the schoolhouse was Prussian. The seed that became American schooling, twentieth-century style, was planted in 1806 when Napoleon's amateur soldiers bested the professional soldiers of Prussia at the battle of Jena. When your business is renting soldiers and employing diplomatic extortion under threat of your soldiery, losing a battle like that is pretty serious. Something had to be done.
      The most important immediate reaction to Jena was an immortal speech, the "Address to the German Nation" by the philosopher Fichte â" one of the influential documents of modern history leading directly to the first workable compulsion schools in the West. Other times, other lands talked about schooling, but all failed to deliver. Simple forced training for brief intervals and for narrow purposes was the best that had ever been managed. This time would be different.
      In no uncertain terms Fichte told Prussia the party was over. Children would have to be disciplined through a new form of universal conditioning. They could no longer be trusted to their parents. Look what Napoleon had done by banishing sentiment in the interests of nationalism. Through forced schooling, everyone would learn that "work makes free," and working for the State, even laying down one's life to its commands, was the greatest freedom of all. Here in the genius of semantic redefinition lay the power to cloud men's minds, a power later packaged and sold by public relations pioneers Edward Bernays and Ivy Lee in the seedtime of American forced schooling. ...
      Prussia was prepared to use bayonets on its own people as readily as it wielded them against others, so it's not all that surprising the human race got its first effective secular compulsion schooling out of Prussia in 1819, the same year Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, set in the darkness of far-off Germany, was published in England. ..."

And to do that, modern school teachers mainly teach seven lessons:
https://www.informationliberat...
"Look again at the seven lessons of schoolteaching: confusion, class position, indifference, emotional and intellectual dependency, conditional self-esteem, surveillance -- all of these things are prime training for permanent underclasses, people deprived forever of finding the center of their own special genius. And over time this training has shaken loose from its own original logic: to regulate the poor. For since the 1920s the growth of the school bureaucracy, and the less visible growth of a horde of industries that profit from schooling exactly as it is, has enlarged this institution's original grasp to the point that it now seizes the sons and daughters of the middle classes as well. ..."

But do we still need to shape children to become compliant Prussians? As I wrote in 2007:
"Why educational technology has failed schools"
https://patapata.sourceforge.n...
        "... Ultimately, educational technology's greatest value is in supporting "learning on demand" based on interest or need which is at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to "learning just in case" based on someone else's demand. Compulsory schools don't usually traffic in "learning on demand", for the most part leaving that kind of activity to libraries or museums or the home or business or the "real world". In order for compulsory schools to make use of the best of educational technology and what is has to offer, schools themselves must change.
        But, history has shown schools extremely resistant to change. ...
        Essentially, the conventional notion is that the compulsory schooling approach is working, it just needs more money and effort. Thus a push for higher standards and pay and promotion related to performance to those standards. Most of the technology then should be used to ensure those standards. That "work harder" and "test harder" approach has been tried now for more than twenty years in various ways, and not much has changed. Why is that? Could it be that schools were designed to produce exactly the results they do? [See John Taylor Gatto's writing on that.] And that more of the same by more hard work will only produce more of the same results? Perhaps schools are not failing to do what they were designed; perhaps in producing people fit only to work in highly structured environments doing repetitive work, they are actually succeeding at doing what they were designed for? Perhaps digging harder and faster and longer just makes a deeper pit? ...
          But then, with so much produced for so little effort [thanks to a post-industrial information age productivity], perhaps the very notion of work itself needs to change? Maybe most people don't need to "work" in any conventional way (outside of home or community activities)? ...
    But then is compulsory schooling [designed mainly to turn human beings into compliant robots] really needed when people live in such a [post-industrial] way? In a gift economy, driven by the power of imagination, backed by automation like matter replicators and flexible robotics to do the drudgery, isn't there plenty of time and opportunity to learn everything you need to know? Do people still need to be forced to learn how to sit in one place for hours at a time? When people actually want to learn something like reading or basic arithmetic, it only takes around 50 contact hours or less to give them the basics, and then they can bootstrap themselves as far as they want to go. Why are the other 10000 hours or so of a child's time needed in "school"? Especially when even poorest kids in India are self-motivated to learn a lot just from a computer kiosk -- or a "hole in the wall"...
        So, there is more to the story of technology than it failing in schools. Modern information and manufacturing technology itself is giving compulsory schools a failing grade. Compulsory schools do not pass in the information age. They are no longer needed. What remains is just to watch this all play out, and hopefully guide the collapse of compulsory schooling so that the fewest people get hurt in the process. ..."

Comment Re:I'd love to trash Edge, but... (Score 2) 109

I'm not familiar with the exact implementations, but it's actually not hard to imagine a scenario where 1 is needlessly vulnerable, and 1 is not.

For the "secure" model,
What immediately comes to mind is a multi-process design (which I know that Chrome does use, but not to what extent).
The ability to read/decrypt passwords would be kept in a separate process from whatever handled rendering the website and runnings its javascript (since that's the most exposed to security challenges).
The head process would only feed passwords to worker processes when they had a reason to have them.

For the insecure model- single process. Done.
Any compromise (or even the ability to leak locally mapped memory) of the renderer or javascript engine means easy access to all passwords.

Comment Re: Ketamine [Re:So, nothing really new here] (Score 2) 44

The normal rules require an in-person visit, but the post-COVID rules (extended again this year) allow for telehealth "visits", even to receive scheduled drugs- at least that's what I've been led to believe.

but at the same time, dirty MDs have and do run drug mills.

That's been my overall take of the situation with the guys I know.

I have no doubt there's a legitimate practice in there for people with legitimate problems. Ketamine is serious shit. You can really fuck yourself up with it, permanently, if you misuse it. Actual doctor supervision seems like a good idea if you give a fuck about your life.

Comment Re:Really? Wow! (Score 2) 45

the bubble bursting - so we can get on with maybe putting an economy/society back together not based on "but if we throw enough power and chips at the word-guessing machine it might learn to cure cancer"

That's a lovely thought. But there has been no Final Bubble. We keep making them, and we keep making recessions. Pretty much every 10-15 years for quite a while now.
We will never "get on with... putting an economy/society back together".
We will leverage our future to escape the consequences of this bubble/recession. Which will cause another bubble/recession.
As Buzz Lightyear says: To $100 trillion debt, and beyond!

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