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Comment Re:Supreme Court is Corrupt to the Core (Score 3, Interesting) 58

That is crazy. Which is exactly what the majority opinion was so critical of Jackson's dissent. There is nothing constitutional at all about a District court judge preventing the executive from taking action against complainants not before them. There was no history of first rung judge halting policy beyond their regional jurisdiction in US law or common law prior to 20th century either.

They even carved out the case of class action suits, that could still result in nation wide injunctions. District judges don't deal with broad questions of law appellate courts and the Supreme court do.

The Constitution establishes three co-equal branches of government, there was nothing equal or little 'd' democratic about one judge being able to cause the policy choices of the other two branches to be brought to a screeching halt. All the present system did is enable agitators to go shopping for venues where advancing their pet legal theories are most likely to succeed. Conservatives and liberals alike have played these stupid games and it was long past time to put a stop to that nonsense.

Comment Re:Wait until Wall Street (Score 1) 102

I can see the difference. The Trumpist populist wing of the party has done a lot more for the middle class - that expanded child tax credit alone... than DemoRATs have in decades.

That is not say every policy choice they make is great but still 100X better people that are not on the dole already. Basically if you actually work and earn a living, Trump is good for you, he may be even better for you if are 1%er and enjoy a bunch of investment income but that still waaay better than higher taxes and more expensive health care democrats CONSISTENTLY deliver to the middle class.

Comment Re:in other words (Score 1) 181

I think it is more the derivative, smarter people are better at modeling or training.

Look at the contributions that have really shaped science. Observations are important but the really high IQ individuals (sometimes the same making the observations sometimes not) are the ones that have given us models that fit those observations and of course prove their correctness and usefulness by correctly predicting future observations.

Think about atomic models, obviously this is a case of refinement vs pure insight but Dalton's recognition of the greek atomic model took us from what was really more alchemy to basic chemistry. It explained a lot of things about distillation etc and really enable a lot of industrial process. By the time you get to the Bohr model you can explain most ordinary chemistry and create a lot of industrial process without having to 'just try it'.

The more complex model produces better predictions. The neurosciences people have long thought there is a limit to the number of 'propositions' we can think about at once. Our slower whited friends might be limited to four things, many people around five, really smart people more like 7. We 'tokenize' ideas, your wife's phone number starts out as 7 digits or things, but you eventually combine them into "Jenna's number". Perhaps after some intermediate steps of 'the local code' and these 4 digits, (five things). What that means though is a smarter person is going to be able to model faster, because they can reason about situations they understand less well. The smarter person can immediately work with a more complex model that has larger quant of inputs. Where as the 'rest of us' need either to develop a lot of familiarity with the subject first to abstract certain ideas or simple discard the smaller drivers, leading to poorer results.

This experiment had people answering questions about subjects they were just researching. I wonder if we found experienced members of a professions, bucketed them by IQ and asked them make estimates related to their work, if we would see as much stratification in the various vs actual calculated results. My guess is still some but significantly less.

Comment Re:Wait until Wall Street (Score 1, Troll) 102

rsilvergun, even you know this wrong. Stop and think for moment. Let's imagine we do the 2k8 thing again, and people start getting foreclosed.

Who does that serve? -Maybe possibly would be real-estate barons looking to snap up property on cheap. Banks certainly don't want to be holding vacant property. Why would they want a bunch of depreciating assets, with high risk of being vandalized and further devalued.

So lets assume various property investment firms snap all them up. You think they can keep rents high? Not at all, they have same problem. Unoccupied rental property means expense and no revenue on it. Rents absolutely will come down to where people can afford them, but I am with you not a penny lower.

Which is why and I believe sincerely Democratic party policy is absolutely going to destroy the middle-class. We are going to see continued population pressure via both immigration and the generally higher fertility rates of immigrants coupled with high interest rates which will drag on residential build out. The affect is the asset values will continue grow faster than wages and returns in other markets. The rents on those assets will inflate to the maximum the market can support, and that will be the maximum people can pay because a place to live is fairly inelastic, people will give up on just about everything else before they become homeless. We might see more inferior housing options, smaller, former single-family homes carved up into multifamily units etc.

One thing we will not see is much growth in homeless, just the dream of home ownership being ripped away from the average man and handed to some large investors to generate passive income off of instead.

We need to stop illegal immigration, we need push rates back down until we actually see inflation tick back up.

Comment Re:Sums up the housing crisis (Score 1) 102

To be clear I don't think 'illegal immigrants are buying up all the homes'

I think bringing in people by the millions every month means a long term demographic trend that represents significant population growth, vs not doing so which represents relative population stagnation.

I think population growth equals home price growth over time, we were talking about how boomers saw the value of their real-estate investments appreciate 500% over their lifetimes, on a 30 year scale, immigration policy - drives population!

Comment Re:Reoccurring income is key (Score 1) 102

If you have a million in cash, and you want to buy a quarter million dollar asset in a 7.5% prime rate environment. I think you should just use the cash.

7% is a pretty good ROI in the market. Can you beat for a short time sure, but not paying 7% on 250k is a sure thing and therefore the better bet.

Comment Re:Sums up the housing crisis (Score 1) 102

The people paying those prices are the ones renting them out rather than living in them

My point exactly! People are leaving the wealth parked in residential real-estate because, the people that want to live in it can't get the capital together to buy in a high rate environment already. The ones who can do, but otherwise the owners are becoming land lords. At the same time there isn't enough 'easy money' available to do higher risk, lower return efforts like putting in whole developments. That come with the cost of doing roads, water, sewer, retention ponds, etc after you manage to acquire the land and get thru often contentious zoning actions.

However the moment the FED opens the taps, developers will see strong housing demand and once again see building as safe bet for beating inflation and turning a nice profit. We need prime rates down around a couple %2 over inflation rates for that to happen though. Until then you can just hold existing stock and basically soak the wealth out of the renters.
 

Comment Re:Sums up the housing crisis (Score -1, Troll) 102

I think you are mostly wrong.

There was major crash in property values after the 2008 crisis. Since that time prices have recovered. There might have been case for a new bubble if when the Fed started pushing rates back up in '17 if prices had really come down. Here we are in '25 though and we have still seen price growth in the face of 7+% rates for some time.

Folks that can scrape the capital together are still buying. Housing demand vs supply remains quite strong, you can see this because in addition to those who are able buying, rents remain high. What isn't happening because rates are high is as much investment in expansion of housing stock. It eats up to much of the reward, and makes other investments more attractive, especially when investors big enough to move the needles consider that stock growth would also depress prices.

Contrary to what I think is the prevailing opinion I think the current higher rate environment is actually holding prices up; and not just because people lucky enough to have half completed 30 year fixed at 3% rates are electing not move, that is a component but it isn't the major component.

*if* interest rates go down I think we will see a significant increase in the amount of home building. That coupled with Trump having put a stop to importing a small cities worth of illegal immigrants every month will give us a steady not sharp decline in home prices. Now if rates stay were they are I expect prices to remain on their present course of steady but not sharp growth, we can't deport enough people to make a difference and there is not incentive to make any dramatic supply increases.

If the traitors (also known as Democrats) return to power and start flooding us illegals again residential property is almost certain to wildly over perform other investments. So much so that smallest unit of investment, a single property will increasingly become only affordable to the investor class. Forget 5x returns probably look something more like 7-8X. Goodbye middle class, there will be owners and everyone else living paycheck to paycheck just trying to make rent for another month.

Comment Re:It's about time. (Score 3, Insightful) 40

Hell freeking no!

The reason we have nice platforms is because they are profitable. We would be pack to pushing windows CE binaries / J2ME / and various other trypes of shovelware onto our mobiles using some tethered PC serial link without the stores.

It sucked, even if it was open. It was horrid from a security perspective and only worked because most of us did not have anything other contacts and maybe e-mail on our phones, they were tied to payment processing etc like now. That is why you had to have companies like Good putting out whole sandboxes that completely replaced all the native apps, because who knew the status of any other software on the device.

Apple should be entitled to control their platform and take whatever percentage in the store they like, and make any rules for what you can and cannot do if you wish to sell thru the store.

The ONLY thing they ought to be forced to do is allow side loading.

Comment Re:Exemptinkg YouTube is nonsense (Score 1) 26

More fundamentally - ALL LAWS need to be enforced.

To do otherwise completely undermines democracy. It amounts to the prosecutors office or 'director of ...' picking winners and losers. Prosecuting people and organizations they don't like while looking the other way for others, and hiding their arbitrary and capricious activity under a false cover of 'discretion' for reasons of resources.

That gives way rapidly to the absolutely heinous situations where officials proudly flaunt their civic duties to effect social policy etc that never faced a public vote.

Right now if these guys decide you or your company is a problem they can crack open the book and find something to get you on. It should not be that way.

Laws should be either enforced or repealed. We ought to even probably explore adding some process where defendants who can provide the government has a historic patter of non-enforcement can get laws over turned on that basis.

Comment Re:Lifespan of cars in the future (Score 4, Insightful) 24

"dealer" was the problem there.

I am sure there is some radiator of sufficient size/cooling that would fit. More than likely it would have required some creativity, creating special mounts, doing something possibly odd like stacking two of them, using something from a different OEM. Which would have gone down a little rabbit hole of needing different hoses or using ones that are not molded, fittings to adapt sizes etc.

No way it was really an unsolvable problem. Some shade tree could have done it but dealers don't like things coming back that isnt their model. Anyone who has ever built a custom or maintained a legacy vehicle with limited support knows sometimes you have revisit 'solutions' after you drive a round for a week to get things 'dialed in'

The firmware stuff is/will be different. Right now the modders and tinkers enjoy some advantage in they have known working examples to look at. When you sitting in your garage Sunday afternoon trying to get your 40 year old car to work, first you'll have find stuff that is electrically and mechanically compatible, then after that you'll have to deal with the software (often deliberately designed to prevent you from working on it, even if it is just symbols stripped etc, but more than likely signed, cipher, or obfuscated). Why does not it work, well you'll never figure it out because you won't ever be able to isolate the problem, are the bad, not really compatible, is it software, is anti-tampering controls you are not aware of, ...

For stuff from the early 2000s thru the teens the answer will be simple enough, replace entire systems like engine management and body modules with something after market. The CAN bus signalling to talk to human interfaces can be worked out easily enough. Collectors and purists will have to just 'get over' it not being totally original. The concourse guys that go wanking about replicating the style of zip tie the factory used to secure the wire harness will need to take a Xanax or something.

For newer stuff, I think it is going to have be all 'resto-mods' or they won't survive at all. Because as soon as you replace the ECM or body module, so goes the dash gauges and controls, the all the touch controls, stereo, entry sensors, etc. I am sure for popular models that lasted many years without major chassis changes you'll see whole kits replacing all the dash components, thru the door handles, etc that fit 2025-2028 Tonale or whatever. That will be the only realistic open for the Sunday afternoon in the garage guy who isn't absolutely made of money and wants to keep his "Classic" alive in 2050.

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