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Comment Re:Catastrophic man-made global warming (Score 2) 258

Perhaps, perhaps not. Venus is still very poorly understood. In its high temperature environment its conditions are largely self-sustaining (preventing the sequestration of CO2 in rock), although it's also unstable, prone to broad temperature and pressure swings. It also appears to have undergone a global resurfacing event about 300-500mya, if that gives a clue as to how unstable the planet as a whole is. ;) We don't know what caused it, or really anything about it. Part of the planet's properties are now a result of it having lost its water rather than being a cause, such as its hard crust. Obviously its lack of a magnetic field is responsible for its loss of water, but we don't know exactly when or why it disappeared (there are of course theories... I had always just assumed it was the slow rotation rate, but the last research I read suggested that not enough to account for it). Other issues as to how Venus ended up as it did may be related to size - although it's only a bit smaller than Earth, that may be the initial factor that set its fate in motion - for example, its lithosphere in general appears to be thicker and higher viscosity on Earth, which could have hindered or prevented plate tectonics, and thus subduction of carbonates.

Either way, it's a mess now at the surface (though rather comfy ~55km up ;) ). And I'm not so sure I buy into some of the proposed ways to fix it (terraforming). For example, some have suggest mass drivers ejecting the atmosphere. Let's just say you can pull it off, and then you start building oxygen in the atmosphere - what happens next? The crust is something like 7-9% FEO; it's going to rust away whatever oxygen you make in short order.

Interestingly, I'd argue that this is possibly the salvation to Sagan's airborne-microbe concept for terraforming Venus. The main criticism is that if you engineered some sort of carbon-sequestering microbe on Venus (or artificial equivalent), you'd end up with a deep surface layer of graphite surrounded by some hugely hot, dense oxygen layer, and the atmosphere would explode. But that would never happen; at Venus surface temperatures and pressures, the surface rocks would rust away the oxygen as fast as it was created, even in tiny quantities, with the wind blowing the dust around to collect at low/eddy areas. So you're laying down bands of carbon and iron oxide as you burn through the planet's iron buffer. Where have we seen this before? Right, Earth, ~2,3 billion years ago, banded iron formations. Just like on Earth, you'd eventually burn through the iron and start to accumulate oxygen. But by then the graphite is already underground, buried in iron dust.

It's not a fast process. But it has precedent. Microbes already rusted at least one planet, and that planet's surface conditions weren't nearly as favorable for rusting as Venus's.

Comment Re:Catastrophic man-made global warming (Score 0, Troll) 258

I don't know how China managed to melt so much arctic ice, leading to the absurd situation that just a couple days before the winter solstice this year I went on a hike through the snowless mountains in Iceland among chirping songbirds digging for worms. All I have to say to China about this is: Best. Conspiracy. Ever. Well played, China. Well played.

Comment Re:News from other countries... (Score 2) 45

Well, when it comes to space budgets....

NASA: $19,3B
ESA: $5,8B
Roscosmos: ~$2B/yr
JAXA: $2,0B
CNSA: $0,5B official / $1,3B est.
ISRO: $1,2B

It's not just US bias that leads to most stories coming from NASA. NASA really does spend the most on space research and exploration, by large margins.

Still, the public perception is that NASA's budget is far more than it actually is.

Comment Re:battery life a braindead argument (Score 1) 296

Well, fair enough. On the point about ports, I'm sitting here with docks to provide me with mini DisplayPort, Thunderbolt 2, some USB3 stuff, and a pair of eSATA ports, plus an adapter for FireWire2.

So OK, me talking about VGA+DVI isn't a good example, but it is the same point. As for HDMI being ubiquitous, it isn't here. Today I'll be pulling out an ancient projector because the main one is booked out. It has VGA (barely). Is that an edge case? Well, everyone has their edge cases. Our "newer" projector is also HDMI-less.

I'm not a fan of the move to USB-C/TB3, and making them the only ports on the new MBPs, but it is what it is. But consider this, also, that it is a Pro laptop, or meant to be, and so there's going to be a load of stuff hanging off it (my own gripe is that I wanted 32GB RAM) but as a Pro, how many cables do you want to have to plug/unplug every time? And if like me the laptop is being carried around all the time, and I don't have a car, then the weight does matter too.

What I do find a little horrific is that the MacBook only has one port. And that adapters are so expensive. But I'm perfectly agreeable that many people will need and prefer say, a Lenovo P50.

But Apple does, for good or bad, remove stuff, like how we just lost MagSafe and other stuff before that. These are compromises. I sat down this morning and pugged in one TB3 cable (to one of two docks), and my desk stuff is all connected. That's nice in some ways.

Comment Re: Note that what's large... (Score 4, Informative) 82

Venus has multiple "tropopauses" and "stratospheres", depending on how you define them. The atmosphere is like a layer cake with multiple convection zones (like Earth's troposphere) separated by areas of dynamic stability (like Earth's stratosphere). And again, ~50-70km is an awfullly long way from the surface, and surface winds are weak. But, there's a lot about Venus that we don't understand.

Comment Re:battery life a braindead argument (Score 3, Interesting) 296

And dongles don't constantly lose themselves -- people lose dongles, if not careful. And needing a whole "pile of dongles" just shows that there's always some connection or other which can't be included. I mean, do I really want a laptop which has VGA + HDMI + DVI + DP ports? Well, who wants to carry any dongles, right?!

So I'm looking at a MacBook Pro and how it needs a dock sitting on the desk. But I also see this one tiny USB-C/TB3 cable and it is doing a multitude of things. And then I recall the SCSI cables we used to have to use, just for drives and scanners.

And how this one machine, when plugged into a USB-C cable, becomes a desktop, and when I unplug it, it becomes a laptop. And all my stuff is on it. Simple. Thing I like most about the MBP is that it has *four* TB3 ports. It has more connectivity than the Mac Pro tower it replaced.

Comment Note that what's large... (Score 3, Informative) 82

.... is the size, not the intensity. The air moves only slightly faster or slower than the surrounding atmosphere as one passes through the wave.

They weren't expected on Venus, though. Venus's surface is dozens of kilometers down, thick and "soupy" there, transitioning to thinner layers above. It was surprising to see that surface features that far away, in a fluid that can compress, would still make clear phenomena like gravity waves in the high atmosphere.

Comment Re:Mutual Obligation (Score 1) 401

Granted, Ivey and Cheng had some knowledge that the casino was not privy to, specifically the asymmetrical pattern on the cards.

I find it dubious to assume that the house didn't know about the flaw in the cards. This is the type of flaw that they are filtering against when they receive a shipment of cards. Everything gets inspected. A mistake was made that led to the cards being allowed out on the floor, and that happened well before Ivy requested a particular color deck setup. Normally the color of the setups in a casino are on a daily rotation and they have spare colors if a setup has to be pulled. My guess is the casino knew that there was a problem with that set of setups leaving them out of daily rotation, but still kept them there as a spare set of colors, which Ivy had the make a special request for.

Probably an internal 'norm' of secrecy led to this. It was noticed at some point by someone in the table games department, but there are only a small handful of people in gaming that are going to ever learn of it. Table games pulled them out of rotation on purpose, but didnt do the right thing, leading to an accommodating pitboss who wasnt privy to the secretive reason why those colors werent in daily rotation.

Comment Am I the only one... (Score 5, Interesting) 129

.... who can't help but cheer at my screen when they nail one of those landings? Now I finally understand how sports fans feel when they watch a game and do the same thing ;)

One thing nobody can deny about them is optimism. ;) Seriously, their IPS numbers are, pardon the pun, out of this world. $200k per booster launch. $500k per tanker launch. I mean, really? Good luck with that. No, seriously, good luck with that; I won't be expecting anything close to that, but please by all means prove me wrong ;) ITS would be a great system to have, I've been playing around with some Venus trajectories with it recently. Looks like it can do a low-energy transit with nearly 300 tonnes of payload from LEO and back again with the same, over 400 if starting at a high orbit - but from an economics perspective the high energy transfers actually make more sense.

I noticed a lot of people were confused about why Musk wanted the trips to be so short and was willing to sacrifice so much payload to do so - many assumed it had to do with radiation or something. But the issue is, when your craft costs so much but your launch costs are cheap, you can't have it spending all of its time drifting in deep space, you need to get it back for a new mission as soon as possible. There's a balancing point, in that if you try to go too fast, you reduce useful payload below the point of making up for it with going faster - but a minimum energy trajectory is just not optimal when the ratio between launch costs and transit vehicle cost is so extreme. I come up with the same thing from Venus as they were getting for Mars, although for the Venus case you end up aerobraking to a highly elliptical orbit rather than to the surface for ISRU refill (you need ISRU, but for the ascent stages, so it's not realistic to do so for the return stage in the nearer term). So for Venus they get no refill like on Mars, but they also don't have to do a powered landing nor do an ascent on return - it's six of one, half a dozen of the other. Both are quite accessible with it.

Comment Re:Great strides (Score 1) 129

It depends what you mean by "refurbishing"; each element is different.

The solid rocket boosters, for example, suffered a hard impact into salt water. They then had to be fished out of the water. And of course you don't just "refill" a SRB, they have to be taken apart and recast, then put back together.

The ET is disposable, and had to be rebuilt from scratch.

The orbiter was legitimately reusable, but with design flaws.

I don't blame the shuttle program - they were sort of pigeonholed into this dead end by circumstances. The concept came about during the heyday of the Apollo Programme, when NASA budgets were serious. It was supposed to be a much more reusable, much more maintainable, and somewhat smaller system. It was supposed to then have a huge flight rate supporting all of these big projects that were on NASA's docket, including a permanent moon base and a huge manned orbital station dwarfing ISS, which was supposed to replace Skylab.

But of course, Vietnam and the realities of having soundly trounced the USSR in the space race led to their budgets being slashed, which pushed the program into ever more untenable positions until it was nothing more than a jobs programme. Forget full flyback reusability of all parts. Forget the titanium frame for the shuttle, which would have let it run hot and thus not required so sensitive of a TPS. Go begging for money and be forced to modify the design to meet Air Force requirements, pushing you into an inferior design position. On and on.

If I'd fault them for anything, it'd be for going straight for a full reusable workhorse rather than a small-scale pilot programme first. But those were the days of optimism. Optimism which only recently seems to start being regained.

Either way, the Falcon boosters are a very different beast. A vertical soft landing is hugely different from the SRBs, yet the thermal issues are far easier than with the Shuttle. And the Merlins were designed from the start under the principle of preventing the need for a full teardown. That doesn't mean that they will be cheap to reuse. But it does mean that they have the possibility of it.

I do think SpaceX had a rather clever strategy, in that while their goal was reusable, they made a rocket that in the process was cheap as a disposable. So they could get volume and flight history while working on getting the kinks out. They may have flown too close to the sun with the densified propellants and (externally) unlined COPVs, but obviously, with a company like this, their whole existence is to push the envelope.

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