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Comment Re:Enjoy it while it lasts (Score 1) 36

The cost savings will end when Arm jacks up licensing fees. Grsviton is gonna get hit too. ARM Ltd. is tired of watching their customers rake in all the revenue. And their Qualcomm lawsuit didn't work out. So Amazon, Google, MS, etc. are their next targets.

Hence Google's investment in RISC V. It's not yet competitive, but with some time and money it can become competitive. Also, ARM can't raise the prices too much because x86 is still right there.

Comment Re:On one hand (Score 1) 36

It is great to be platform agnostic. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that the difference in energy consumption between x86-64 and ARM is significant enough to be a concern at Google, considering their market cap is literally three trillion dollars now.

You don't get to be a three trillion dollar company by saying "We have plenty of money so we don't need to be efficient". You also don't stay a three trillion dollar company that way.

Comment Re:it's a ridiculous and unreasonable rule (Score 1) 39

There is another one that sticks out to side and indicates that you should not go forward.

Not where I live. They do have a stop sign that flips out to the side.

I do not recommend passing a stopped bus, even if you do not hit anyone.

I'm wondering what I said that made you think I thought otherwise.

Comment Re:Waymo speeds through my school neighborhood (Score 1) 39

Sure the speed limit is 30, but we have tons of kids in the neighborhood and narrow streets due to parked cars (we are still in the heart of the coty). Everyone else travels at 20. Waymo regularly travels at 30mph. Maybe its lidar is detecting pedestrians and thinks it is safe, but just the other day I watched a kid run out from behind a parked car to catch a ball. No amount of lidar would catch that at the last minute.

Of course itâ(TM)s play fast, fail hard.. so change will not happen until a kid dies. Just hope it is not mine!

Have you pointed this out to Waymo? They're pretty responsive from what I've heard, and this is exactly the kind of thing they'd want to know about and update their model to consider, before a kid gets hit. Not only do they not want to kill kids because Waymo employees are humans, but it would also be horrendous PR that would seriously damage the company.

You can submit feedback through the Waymo app, regardless of whether or not you've used the service. There's probably also a way to report concerns through their web site.

One note: You might be surprised how good the cars are at noticing hidden dangers. I got a ride about ten years ago (when I worked for Google) and I was annoyed when a light turned green but my car just sat there... until about two seconds later when a cyclist came whizzing across the road in front of the car. There was a tall hedge in the way and I don't know how the car "saw" him -- no human driver would, the dude was asking to get squashed -- but it clearly did, and waited. My guess is that although LIDAR and cameras couldn't see through the hedge, RADAR could. Waymo uses LIDAR, RADAR, visual and infrared cameras and ultrasonic sensors so it's quite a bit better at "seeing" than any human could be. None of those can see a kid behind a parked car, though, so maybe they do need to update the model to be more careful in those circumstances.

Comment Re:it's a ridiculous and unreasonable rule (Score 2) 39

School buses even have a pole that sticks out the front of the bus so kids crossing the street have to go several feet in front of the bus so drivers who might be in the other lane can see the kids and they don't just appear in front of the bus.

I'm pretty sure the purpose of the pole is so the kids walk far enough in front of the bus that the bus driver can see them. Buses are tall and kids are short, so if a kid walks right in front of the bus they'll be hidden from the driver by the dashboard. If a bunch of kids disembark and several of them turn left out of the door, the driver would have to keep a very careful count to make sure they've accounted for all of the ones who could have turned left again, right in front of the bus and might be walking close enough to the nose that they're in that front blind spot. The pole makes the kids walk far enough in front of the bus before they turn in front of it that the driver can definitely see them.

It probably does help in the way you describe, but if that were the primary purpose the pole would be on the driver side.

Comment Re:TACO (Score 1) 82

It's a negotiating strategy outlined in "The Art of The Deal"...make a big, bold, over-reaching initial claim or ask (way beyond what you actually want), then "settle" back closer to the actual position you wanted in the first place as a "compromise".

It's really not. There is no plan, just a series of impulse-driven changes, shying away from the ones that cause problems that happen fast and are easy to see.

Comment Re:TACO (Score 1) 82

TACO backtracks again.

For the moment, until he randomly lurches in a different directly.

US policy looks like a drunken toddler staggering in random directions because that's exactly what's happening right now. The toddler bumps his head and lurches away from the pain, but the lesson doesn't stick.

The only answer for US business leaders right now is exactly what most of them are doing: hunkering down. No hiring, no expansion into other markets or offering new products, and cutting capex and opex wherever possible to build a cushion of cash to give them freedom to absorb whatever may happen in the future.

Comment Re:Kessler Syndrome (Score 1) 42

When I was a child: Rare to see a satellite pass overhead.
Early adulthood: Plenty of satellites and space junk to see.
Middle age: Rare to see a satellite that isn't Starlink.
Late life: Lucky to die of something other than being hit by space junk?

The subject of your post is Kessler Syndrome, but Kessler Syndrome is definitely not a concern with these LEO constellations. Anything not regularly reboosted at these altitudes quickly deorbits because they're flying within the outer edges of the atmosphere. Kessler Syndrome is a potential problem at higher orbits where stuff in orbit tends to stay in orbit for a very long time, making accumulation problematic.

As for being hit by falling space junk, It's super rare for stuff that has reached orbit to hit the ground. That tends to be a concern with stuff that doesn't quite make it to orbit, which is one of many reasons why launch reliability is important.

Comment Re:The old ones are..Re: Falling As Fast As They'r (Score 1) 42

So a dozen countries are going to just seed the upper atmosphere with every space-grade lead-solder telecommunications trinket by design and pretend that won’t ever have any ill effect besides Kessler?

Besides Kessler? These satellites cannot cause Kessler Syndrome precisely because they deorbit. There may be ill effects of burning a few hundred tons of material in the upper atmosphere every year, we'll have to see, but Kessler Syndrome is definitely not an issue.

Comment Confused people think evolution is magic (Score 1) 75

This is a common strain of misunderstanding I see all over the place. People think that evolution is somehow magical and that what it produces is mystically better because it's "natural". That's all garbage.

Evolution is a random process. There's no intelligence guiding it, nothing that ensures that the "choices" it makes are the best alternatives or can't have horrific consequences. In fact, the vast majority of evolutionary changes are utter failures that immediately get selected out.

Also, it's silly to claim that climate change is moving "too fast for evolution". Evolution absolutely can and will respond to climate change... it might be that corals go extinct and something else evolves to fill their niche in ocean ecology, or it might be that corals do evolve in something like their current form. Evolution is fine either way and will produce something that settles into a new equilibrium. It might not be an equilibrium humans like, and it might not settle fast enough to make us happy, but we need to realize that what we're concerned about isn't the ecosystem -- that will survive regardless, unless we get into some runaway feedback loop that turns Earth into Venus, or Neptune -- what we're concerned about is maintaining an environment that we're accustomed to.

Given all of that, our potential creation of genetically-modified corals isn't somehow subverting evolution, it's just another evolutionary avenue. Rather than random mutations, we'll create some specific ones and then we'll throw them into the mix and see if they get selected for or against. The same mutations we create deliberately could also have occurred randomly and would that make the outcome any less "natural"?

And if we've already altered the environment so much that our preferred ecosystem is going away anyway, what's the harm in trying to use CRISPR CAS-9 to "guide" evolution in a direction we'd prefer, rather than letting it randomly go in whatever direction it will? Could our genetic modifications make things worse? Sure! Could random mutations also make things worse? Sure! Which is more likely to maintain an ecosystem of the sort we enjoy? No one can say for sure, but in general if you want to get from point A to point B you're better off aiming for B rather than just walking randomly.

Even better would be to stop changing the climate, but at this point all we can do is try to limit the amount we're changing it. And we should do that! But the best that we can do might still not be enough for corals as we know them, so if we like reefs and reef ecosystems (and we really do; I'm an avid SCUBA diver and I love reef ecosystems), then we should probably put some effort into researching modifications that can survive warmer and more acidic oceans.

Comment Re:Applied Darwinism? (Score 1) 87

It's one of these things where there is so much written and discussed about a niche issue that all the information leaves people grossly misled more than informed

Maybe there are not more deaths BECAUSE people talk about it so much and are careful...? Just maybe??

Both are true, I think. Without discussion and care the numbers would probably be an order of magnitude larger, maybe two... but that's still very small.

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