Eh, no, you really just failed at reading that and wrote a long screed about something I didn't say. The post I responded to claimed that "another rocket company" would develop a replacement for Falcon "in a few years" if SpaceX folded. Then claimed Starship, a program that began active development 8 years ago, was 20 years ahead of anything else.

I'm pointing out the logical gap in "Falcon can be replaced in a couple of years" but any competition is 20 years behind 8 years of development. It's a nonsensical claim.

I am going to make a dangerous assumption and assume that does not mean "we think we should use the written word to train our LLM" as that isn't actually anything that requires consensus. So presumably, the "team" discussion was about how to acquire said books. That the "consensus" answer was "through shadow libraries" sounds an awful lot like "conspiracy to commit commercial copyright infringement" and appears to be a rather shortsighted argument to be making.

Wait, "some other company" can replace Falcon in "a few years" but everyone is "20 years behind" a design that has only been under active development since late 2018? Your math ain't mathing, dude.

Which is pretty funny, since the only major difference between the two these days is "Is Google spying on you, or is Microsoft?"

They're called "enrobers." (humor)

When Russia began attacking Ukraine... it apparently failed to prepare for possible retaliation.

FTFY. Based on how the Russians started whining when Ukraine had the nerve to shoot back.

It is at this point that I will make this about politics and purposefully pursue the "yet you participate in society" vibe.

How can you possibly advocate against $POLICY and then say "If $COMPANY had done what I advocate against, things would be better for all of us" without that meaningfully affecting your view of $POLICY?

Please forgive me, I don't want to make this about politics per se and I don't want this comment to come off as attacking or give off an "and yet you participate in society" vibe, but...

I was under the impression that you were nominally on what we would call "the left" and that "vertical integration" was one of the seven deadly sins, economically speaking. Given a large amount opposition to that in the western world over the last thirty years or so, how was anyone supposed to plan for the situation we're in today?

(On another note, from an economic rather than political point of view, if you look at how AMD and Intel have functioned over the last 10-20 years, AMD's choice to divest their fabs seems to have been a very good decision on their part and I say this as someone who thought it was a terrible choice and a death knell for the company at the time).

Not sure how you can put "AI companies bought all the fucking supply of everything for three entire calendar years" on "gaming companies." I saw some guy on reddit the other day complaining about Microsoft reducing the amount of storage for 365 family subs and urging everyone to sign some petition to reverse this as if a. there was any chance of a reversal or b. that enterprise storage costs increasing by a factor of four over the last calendar year might make this both a reasonable move on their part and something beyond control.

I realize that Microsoft at least is part of the problem here with Copilot/Azure/whatever else along with their OpenAI investments, but it doesn't change that "the consumer electronics market is now fundamentally different than it was just a year ago." Moore's law isn't going to be making things cheaper anymore and everything with RAM and/or flash will be getting more expensive on an almost monthly basis until at least 2029 (note, that's not saying "things will get better then" but only "things will continue getting worse until at LEAST then.")

The fuck kind of crazy shit is this?

My 15yo will play almost any game on any platform at any time. Yep, she plays on her phone and her tablet but she also plays on her xbox and switch. She has a school issued laptop for her classwork and uses desktops in classes that have/require them.

My 8yo plays on her tablet and my wife's phone, but has no problem using a Switch controller (be it a joycon, pro controller, or the two joycons on the charging base together). She plays puzzle games with my wife, minecraft on her tablet and the switch, and she really likes Mario Kart (she likes 8 a lot more than 64). She doesn't have a 1:1 laptop at school yet (other than during Covid, they don't do this until middle school here), but they pass out laptops at school as required for day assignments.

I don't disagree that kids do a lot of their gaming on mobile devices, but this idea that they don't know/play other games or that they "don't understand how to use a controller or a laptop" is fucking insane.

Disagree. A large part of why costs are through the roof is that the product mix has shifted from heavily favoring general use parts like SDRAM to more specialized parts like HBM. Most of this production is going right to the end customer rather than middlemen. What you're likely to see when/if this bubble pops is a lot of nominally useless (in the short term) hardware (for general compute) being liquidated and that what middlemen are sitting on is still supply constrained for the immediate future and holds its value.

Detroit got rid of sedans because they weren't making enough margin (note, not "weren't profitable," just not enough margin). If anyone thinks the likes of e.g. Dell are going to actively subsidize their client business from enterprise margins, I cannot imagine that they are native to this reality.

We're extending our lifecycles in an attempt to protect ourselves from the rising costs. It's turns out that while some people can absorb their infrastructure cost increasing by a factor of four, most people can't.

More recent guidance we have says that 2028 is going to be worse in terms of pricing than 2026 was. I'm not going to be surprised if, another five years from now, ten-year-old clients (not to mention servers, storage, switches) are the norm in a corporate environment rather than the exception.

If you go old enough, you have to take into account that memory bandwidth was terrible.

On a Pentium 1, I believe RAM can do somewhere around 100MB/s. And sure, it gets better later, but still. If you consider that a serious RAID-5 for instance, you're reading at a minimum 3 drives, and computing parity, then yes, you can easily take most of your memory's bandwidth just on that. It makes a lot of sense then to offload stuff to a RAID card.

These days hard disks are laughably slow compared to the rest of the computer, but it didn't use to be quite like that. A high end SCSI drive of the era might do maybe 20 MB/s, which is a good fraction of the system RAM's capability. Put just 3 there and it's starting to get tricky.

Also, we have the benefit that some slowness stopped to matter. If you're RAID5-ing 3 x 8GB/s NVMes and not getting the ideal performance out of it there's lots of cases where that doesn't matter because you don't have a workload capable of doing anything with what even a single drive is capable of providing anyway.

I said Darth Cheeto's executive orders were less rooted in law than what's come before and you think I support him? WTF? I said your statement supported the position you were replying to. That's not support, that's telling you you're supporting something almost, though not quite, as bad.

For the rest, I am pro-immigration (even asylum) but anti-unlawful immigration. I don't hold against people that they want better lives and will use any excuse to obtain them, but I do hold against people when they are responsible for upholding the law and not only fail to do so but subvert it (and then claim that they had nothing to do with creating the crisis). Yes, I hold that against both parties equally, and yes, that applies to where we are in terms of the economy, Iran, etc. I am not being partisan here.