Comment Re:"peak satellite"? (Score 1) 31
That gives a volume of about 56 billion km^2
That should have been km^3, obviously.
That gives a volume of about 56 billion km^2
That should have been km^3, obviously.
At what point will we run out of space to put all those satellites
Do the math! The Earth is ~12,800 km in diameter, so a LEO shell from 350-450 km up is about 13,300 km in diameter and about 100 km thick. That gives a volume of about 56 billion km^2. If we give every satellite 100 km^3, that means we're limited to about 56 million satellites.
particularly into stationary earth orbit?
Oh, you want geostationary orbit? That's way, way, way bigger (though possibly subject to Kessler syndrome, unlike LEO).
And who manages traffic congestion?
Basically every space agency does this.
Next, let's worry about what happens if one satellite has a catastrophic accident (or is knocked out by an ASAT), and all-of-a-sudden, that orbit starts loading up with junk?
This is a potential concern for high orbits, not so much for where most of the satellites are being deployed.
Enquiring minds want to know! (Particularly so I can short SpaceX stock...)
Space getting "full" is never going to be a constraint on SpaceX's growth, so you should probably look for some different signals.
Why do you even need to merge? Just change the code directly. Why do you even need a code database? You aren't looking at the code are you?
I absolutely review all of the code, telling the AI to rewrite parts of it, and occasionally doing it myself. I take advantage of the AI to produce not only more code, but higher-quality code (because I will make the AI do refactors that I'd previously have dismissed as not worth the effort). I now get more done in a day than I used to do in a week and, as I said, with higher quality: more/better documentation, cleaner code, more comprehensive test suites, etc.
AI is a huge productivity boost, and it's actually that boost that creates the review and merge bottlenecks. A four-hour merge process isn't a problem when you only produce two merge-ready PRs per week. But I average one merge-ready PR every 2-3 hours.
I've been trying for a while to use a "loop" to optimize one particularly-tedious part of my workflow: Merging.
My employer uses Github with an extensive CI infrastructure to validate all sorts of things. After CI passes, trunk-io takes the commit and retests it in a batch with other commits and if they all pass, merges them as a set of squash commits. If something goes wrong, I have to figure out whether it's a transient failure (in which case I can tell the system to re-run the tests), or whether it requires me to fix and re-push. My commits typically build on one another so I end up with a stack of PRs that have to go through this process. When a commit finally merges the next commit up the stack has to be rebased and re-pushed.
Start to end, getting a commit to merge takes between one and four hours. This is slow enough that even though I don't have to watch the process continuously, just check in on it every half hour or so, it puts a major crimp in my productivity. If I only merge during working hours I can only merge 2-4 commits per day, but on a good day I create double that. This means that I have to be merging evenings and weekends too, or my backlog builds up. (Code review is another obstacle, but I'm focused only on the merge process here.)
There are enough possible odd failure cases in the merge process that I haven't been successful at writing a script to manage it. So I thought "Hey, why not have Claude supervise it? Claude is capable of exercising some judgment and problem-solving, right?".
Not really. If there's a problem blocking the PR at the bottom of the stack from merging, Claude is perfectly capable of analyzing the situation and determining what needs to be done to unblock it, and of performing the operations necessary -- but only with active prompting. Claude can set a timer to go periodically check the status and recognize the problem, but no matter what I do I can't get it to autonomously take the next step of correctly diagnosing and then acting on that diagnosis. Even given explicit instructions to do so, Claude either (a) fails to investigate enough, (b) fails to identify correct actions or (c) fails to perform them. When I wake up in the morning and ask Claude what the situation is, it generally correctly and accurately summarizes exactly what's wrong and exactly what needs to be done to fix it, and then when I ask why it didn't do those things it tells me that it clearly should have, but it just didn't.
I've tried various architectures, using one instance to prompt another one, using pairs of instances set up with distinct, complementary responsibilities, using instances set up with adversarial responsibilities (this is the most effective), but I just can't get it do to this work effectively.
There's a working group of cryptographers who are spending some of their time researching Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) in an attempt to reduce their value to zero.
Cite?
I find that extremely unlikely. The cryptography behind BTC is very simple and very robust. Oh, it's certainly the case that if someone were to break any of the cryptographic elements they'd have made a name for themselves that would result in them being showered with opportunities in both academia and industry, but (a) that's extraordinarily unlikely and (b) the primary benefit of doing that work wouldn't be related in any way to BTC. Oh, and it would also take down lots of other important uses of cryptography, like TLS. That doesn't make it not worth doing. The fact that it would break so much other stuff is what makes it worth doing.
Where I differ is refusing to associate cost/price with value.
"Value" is too variable and subjective to be a global concept. The only useful way to define "value" is "What a given person or entity will pay". Your gamr-boi puts a very high value on a game. I would value the game at very close to zero. Probably not actually zero... if you offered me a big bundle of games for a penny, I'd buy them because a there's some tiny possibility that I might want to play one or two of them sometime in the future. Especially if the purchase is digital (e.g. Steam) so I don't actually have to store them anywhere. Another person might place the value somewhere between the gamr-boi's "lots" and my "almost nothing".
And "price" is just the aggregate combination of all the potential buyers' values, matched against suppliers' offerings. So price is inherently and inextricably associated with value. Specifically, the value that everyone puts on a good defines the shape of the demand curve, and the price is where the demand curve meets the supply curve.
Your video game example is not a great one, because non-rivalrous goods (my having the game doesn't preclude you from also having it, unlike, say, socks, where my possession of a particular pair of socks means you can't have them) introduce some complications into this analysis. It's much easier to understand the relationship between value and price with traditional physical goods first.
There are two curves, a supply curve and a demand curve. Where they cross is the price.
This is extremely simplified
In general: the price is as high as the seller can get away with. "Supply and Demand" as "basic economics" only works in niche cases.
Where the curves cross is the highest profit the seller can get away with. This is precisely how the curves are defined.
When talking about supply and demand, people commonly misunderstand that both curves are fundamentally about price, not availability or desirability. The supply curve is "How much is available at each price level". The demand curve is "How much will be bought at each price level". At prices above or below the intersection point, sellers are failing to maximize their profit.
It's profit-maximization that pushes prices to the supply/demand intersection point.
Note that monopoly or monopsony don't invalidate the supply/demand curves, they just alter them. Even with a perfect monopoly, the supply and demand curves still exist; at different price levels the monopolist can obtain more or less to sell, and at different price levels the buyers will purchase more or less. Supply and demand curves don't work or not work in different market conditions. Supply and demand curves always hold, non-competitive market conditions just shift the curves. Even government price setting doesn't change this fundamental reality... it makes price ranges legally inaccessible, which just alters the curve shapes by adding legal risk to the "price".
Supply/demand curves aren't a prediction, they're an observation, and the basic concept is near-tautological.
That's just par for the course, everything el Bunko touches dies
Here's hoping he leans into crypto currencies big time, then.
Probably better than MS-Windows does in-place upgrades, though
I have no knowledge of that, for which I'm happy. But... Windows 10 was released in 2015 and will apparently be supported through late 2027. Outside of RHEL no Linux distro comes close.
And they could be up to date for many, many, many years if Linux was installed on those, instead.
Well, if by "many, many, many" you mean "about five". Red Hat provides longer support terms, but not for free.
And then after those years shift from a "update" path to an "upgrade" path and have many years more.
True, sort of. Assuming the upgrade works, which it often does... but not always.
I'm no Windows fanboy, in fact the last version of Windows I used was Windows 2000. I switched to Linux completely by mid-2001 and I've never looked back. But it's really not as rosy as you paint it. The commercial OSes (Windows and OS X) actually do a much better job of delivering long-term support and (in the case of OS X) upgrades. I don't personally care about that for my machines, because I have no problem managing them, and even debugging the occasional update or upgrade failure. But I'm actually glad most of my relatives use Windows, because I would not enjoy having to help them do the same.
You seem to have completely missed the point, which is that what Biden *should* have done -- while his party held both houses -- is changed the law, rather than issuing an order that broke the law. Trump has been far, far worse about this, but it's clear that part of Trump's goal (or the goal of someone with his ear, since I'm not sure he is capable of making and pursuing goals over longer time periods than a few days) is to establish that the president doesn't need Congress.
Nothing worse than having that data in the hands of Elon Musk.
What do you think he's going to do with it?
I agree carbon capture and sequestration is important but I haven't seen anything that looks good at scale yet.
And there won't be unless we motivate research into it.
When there is a decent solution it would be ideal at times of surplus generation when power is otherwise unable to be used
Indeed! This is an ideal use for overprovisioned capacity.
At the small scale I have an issue where in summer my solar surplus is more that my rural grid connection can handle so when my hot water is heated and the house and car are charged I end up with the solar inverters derating
Wow. I generate way more than I use in the summer, but my (also rural) grid connection can absolutely take it just fine. I have 200A service with a 150A breaker (so, about 37 kW), but my generation peaks at about 20 kW. My bigger problem is that if I try to charge my house batteries (20 kW) and my car (12kW) and run my AC (4 kW) and the steam generator (9 kW) and run basic house loads (2 kW) and run my welder (10 kW) that's 57 kW or about 235A. In practice I don't ever do all of those things at the same time (and rarely charge batteries from the grid), so I've never actually tripped the main breaker, but I could do it easily if I tried. I imagine it will happen someday. I could swap the breaker, but the wiring from the main panel isn't big enough to have the proper safety margin at 200A. Running new wiring would be... a big project, likely involving tearing up and replacing a big chunk of my driveway. So, 150A will have to do.
I have not found a good use for such surplus power yet, but carbon capture would be ideal.
Me neither. I ran the math on doing some BTC mining (I think BTC is a scourge on the planet, but I'm happy to take money) but it didn't pencil out. Free power is great for mining, but the cost of the rigs is high enough that you really need to keep them humming 24x7, and I don't have enough battery capacity for that.
I agree carbon capture and sequestration is important but I haven't seen anything that looks good at scale yet.
And there won't be unless we motivate research into it.
When there is a decent solution it would be ideal at times of surplus generation when power is otherwise unable to be used
Indeed! This is an ideal use for overprovisioned capacity.
At the small scale I have an issue where in summer my solar surplus is more that my rural grid connection can handle so when my hot water is heated and the house and car are charged I end up with the solar inverters derating
Wow. I generate way more than I use in the summer, but my (also rural) grid connection can absolutely take it just fine. I have 200A service with a 150A breaker (so, about 37 kW), but my generation peaks at about 20 kW. My bigger problem is that if I try to charge my house batteries (20 kW) and my car (12kW) and run my AC (4 kW) and the steam generator (9 kW) and run basic house loads (2 kW) and run my welder (10 kW) that's 57 kW or about 235A. In practice I don't ever do all of those things at the same time (and rarely charge batteries from the grid), so I've never actually tripped the main breaker, but I could do it easily if I tried. I imagine it will happen someday.
I could swap the breaker, but the wiring from the main panel isn't big enough to have the proper safety margin at 200A. Running new wiring would be... a big project, likely involving tearing up and replacing a big chunk of my driveway. So, 150A will have to do.
I have not found a good use for such surplus power yet, but carbon capture would be ideal.
Me neither. I ran the math on doing some BTC mining (I think BTC is a scourge on the planet, but I'm happy to take money) but it didn't pencil out. Free power is great for mining, but the cost of the rigs is high enough that you really need to keep them humming 24x7, and I don't have enough battery capacity for that.
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