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Comment Re:Is this a surprise? (Score 1) 13

It's not that AI "knows" anything. It's just a big statistical web programmed with mass amounts of data

This just raises the question of what it means to "know". The LLMs clearly have a large and fairly comprehensive model of the world, the things in it and the relationships between them. If they didn't, they couldn't produce output that makes sense in the context of the models we have of the world, the things in it and the relationships between them.

Comment Re: Time to resurrect the old meme... (Score 1) 243

The dollar rose like a rocket from 10/24 to 1/25. Then it reversed and went back to right where it was before the sudden rise.

That has nothing to do with the comment you replied to. I was talking about Trump's cluelessness what is needed to retain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency which is at best weakly related to its valuation relative to other currencies.

It was most likely driven by hedge funds speculating that Trump would replace Power and dramatically lower interest rates. That didn't happen and the trade reversed.

Only if hedge fund managers don't understand how the Fed chairmanship works. Trump can't replace Powell until February 2026, when Powell's term expires. Not unless Trump can make the case that he needs to be removed for cause, which would require evidence of misconduct, not just policy disagreement.

Comment Re:So just to avoid misunderstandings... (Score 1) 50

Your blatant ignorance or denialism is not an excuse for calling people names. Scientists have been making the same point as the GP for at least 40 years now:

Although substantial progress is made every year in fusion research, the projected time to realize the ultimate goal of commercial fusion always seems to be 25 to 30 years away.

Comment Re:Immigration Reform [Re: What about not eating.. (Score 1) 184

Lol, Politifact. You'd have to go to Tucker Carlson or Truthout to find a more dishonest source. The headline says the law would not have allowed that many illegal immigrants, but the text explains why it effectively would. The bill was primarily intended to give political cover for record-setting paces of 4000+ encounters a day for months from well-deserved criticism on lax border enforcement.

Comment Re:Immigration Reform [Re: What about not eating.. (Score 0, Troll) 184

Yes, that was the bill that would allow (some would say strongly recommend) the government to ignore up to 5,000 illegal border crossing every day -- 1.8 million each year. With proper enforcement of immigration laws, it's now typical to have about 8,000 encounters per month: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/s...

Comment Re:Time to resurrect the old meme... (Score 4, Insightful) 243

Just to add some insight:

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said: “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

https://apnews.com/article/tru...

So clueless.

The fact is that the trade imbalance is the largest single factor that makes the US dollar the world currency -- and also helps to keep the federal debt cheap. All of those countries that have a trade surplus with us send us lots of goods and in exchange they get lots of dollars. What do they do with them? They buy US-denominated securities, including treasury bonds. So many people and organizations around the world holding large reserves of US-denominated securities is what makes the dollar the world's default currency.

To the extent that he succeeds at "correcting" the trade imbalance, he'll undermine the dollar's status. And trying to bully countries into sticking with the dollar by threatening action that will make the dollar worth less to them is just... clueless. And that's assuming his actions to explode the debt while escalating financing costs doesn't result in enormous devaluation of the dollar, which would make it worthless rather than just worth less.

On balance I think I'm mostly glad that Trump is a moron, because if he weren't he would be really dangerous. On the other hand, if he had either a brain or the humility to listen to people who do, he might understand that he's trying to destroy what he's trying to control, and that winning that sort of game is losing. Probably not, though. He's amoral enough to be okay with ruling over a relative wasteland, because he and his will be better off.

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