Comment Re:Pseudoscience. The "probability" is meaningless (Score 1) 175
It seems a tad doubtful you understand much of Statistics 101, since you seemingly fail at basic reading comprehension. Unlike you, this guy does understand it, as can be seen from the fact that he speaks about probabilities, not certainties. Giving you the benefit of the doubt here, perhaps you need a refresher? This is basic survival analysis after all.
And that is even assuming you can even make anything other than a wild-ass-guess about this probability.
This is about the only thing you are vaguely meaningful about. He probably has some kind of model in mind for estimating that 2%. It can be reasonably accurate, inaccurate or wrong. It would be interesting if he shared it. As to the "wild-ass-guess" part, statistics of rare events is a thing, but somewhat past the 101 level. War chances can be (and indeed are) modeled statistically. Additional assumptions are needed for nuclear escalation and those can be reasonable or not, but the whole process is not by default a magical hand-waving as you imply.