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Comment Who cares about CVEs anymore? (Score 1) 7

If there is a backlog of 30k vulnerabilities I don't see how AI is even relevant here. Linus Torvalds himself could have entered a fugue state and churned out 500 reports over the weekend and surely it would still be the case that his reports would be stuck in the queue.

The real concern is if while blue team is stuck on their trusty human-in-the-loop evaluation system, red team is 1000Xing exploits. (I don't think they will mind too much of 90% are false positives or implemented with crummy code.) In that case, be as skeptical as you want of AI code vs human code quality, acceleration-in-kind is the only alternative the blue team has to giving up and airgapping everything.

Comment Intolerable state of affairs (Score 4, Insightful) 159

China already gets its way in forcing Hollywood and other big industries to self-sensor on its behalf, down to the individual level (e.g. sanctioning NBA teams if their members made a post in solidarity with the oppressed in Hong Kong).

But even when you have no business with China you still have to worry about what will happen to your business if you acknowledge their persistent genocide of the Uighurs?

This isn't a situation to passively accept.

Comment Re: Unemployment (Score 1) 190

With a UBI scheme everyone gets it by default, so there is much less fraud

The idea you can disburse massive money with less oversight and get *less* fraud is as crazy as it sounds.

In fact we got a nice empirical taste in what to expect in the pandemic payouts. Numerous persons and addresses were invented. Checks were intercepted in the mail or redirected to a different address and washed. Or people were scammed e.g. by being sent fake "overpayments" they needed to "partially refund" to the scammers. That was hundreds of billions defrauded from the government just from two payouts.

What do you think will happen in terms of domestic abuse and human trafficking if a constant influx of dollars magically accompanies any person even if they never leave the house?

What about people with substance and compulsory addictions? Or ties to violent crime organizations? Do you just send them money and not care what it's ultimately used for?

It is very appealing to redirect money spent on bureaucracy to its intended targets, but the idea you can reduce misuse by making free money easier to access is just not so.

Comment Re: Prediction:It goes out of business within 6 mo (Score 5, Insightful) 118

NHSTA data shows Tesla's being ~1/2 as likely to be involved in a crash as comparable cars. That already covers the premium reduction.

Tesla often claims much higher safety advantage (up to 10x) and has been criticised for misrepresentation as those numbers are based on pretty selective data - telemetry collected when FSD is turned on. Which is obviously not all the time and in fact most likely to be used on the easy part of the route, so not at all represent of the average risk.

But in this case those are exactly the conditions in which Lemonade is offering the reduction, so they are providing a 2X payout for 10X payoff. And even if that affects the statistics negatively (more use of FSD in risky conditions for reduced premium) you would expect that to at worst converge to the overall 2X payoff.

But honestly they are probably going to get their real savings from the telemetry and being able to back their non-payouts with ironclad proof, and, conversely, not spend legal and investigative resources when they should just payout.

Comment no competitive advantage (Score 1) 42

Assuming AI tooling did offer a productivity advantage, if both you and your competitor move from not having it to having it, then you have gained no net advantage. That doesn't mean you could just as well have skipped it, because then your competitors *would* gain an advantage.

In short, you need to measure something besides $.

Comment Re:They have actual water shortages (Score 2) 121

The last thing they want is a stable prosperous wealthy Iran.
An unstable mess they can point to and blame their internal problems on. Excuse their own "badness"

None of them want a country better than them sucking up all the tourist dollars and business deals in the region.

True, but I think what they really, really don't want is free flowing Iranian oil. The "evil regime that gets heavy sanctions" status quo is very agreeable to them because it appreciates the value of their one major asset.

Comment Re:They have actual water shortages (Score 1) 121

i disagree here, iran descending into chaos like syria is exactly what israel wants if it can't get the better option: iran as a remote controlled puppet state, which seems highly unlikely. a fragmented failed state is manageable. the last thing they want is a stable, unified, sovereign iran they can't control. that's exactly why they did to syria what they did, iran is just the final boss.

and when i say israel i mean israel and some shady powers mostly in the uk and the us. the proverbial colonialist gang.

You have no concept of the region at all. Iran is not Syria. They aren't even Arab. And 250k people of Iranian descent live in Israel now, which is a sizable portion of a country with only 9 million people altogether. The people of Iran and the people of Israel are friendly, to the point that you often see Israeli flags and the old Iranian lion and sun flag displayed together at ex-pat events.

If Israel wanted chaos in Iran they could certainly have achieved that. They didn't have any problem at all taking out Iran's defenses and claiming air superiority in their last altercation. Why stop and leave after you win if your desire is to make a mess?

Comment Crucial missing context - why? (Score 3, Informative) 121

Contrary to the summary, the mass protests are not really continuing at this point. The Iranian regime has killed anywhere from several thousand to several tens of thousands of protesters - open fire with machine guns into crowds, setting markets on fire and shooting people as they tried to escape, sniping from rooftops - and that's been ruthless enough that people are now afraid to go out in most places. The streets are generally deserted. (Even groups of two have been enough to get shot in some places.)

So why is the internet still blocked?

Doubtless a number of reasons, but part of it is the Iranians have been using the internet to share videos of the massacres, of the bodies, of the armed militia patrolling the streets, and plea for help. A revealing component is that the government forces have been going door-to-door confiscating satellite equipment and arresting people in possession of Starlink. Especially given their Russian jamming equipment, those devices are not being used to effectively coordinate protests. But they *are* letting civilians fire off odd messages saying what has been happening.

In particular, the regime has upward of ten thousand additional protesters who are presently arrested, and the Iranian justice minister has declared they will be executed. Those executions were supposed to start yesterday. Allegedly, the regime is holding back after threats of outside response, but the suspicion inside Iran is that they are choosing to perform those killings more quietly.

Unfortunately the blackout strategy is highly effective. The reports of extraordinary brutality and atrocities come across as extraordinary claims, for which Western journalists therefore want significant evidence, but with rare exceptions the Iranians can only get out occasional short messages. Meanwhile the IRGC and Basij are busy doing all the things their leaders are equally busy promising that they aren't doing.

Comment Re:Weird Cults (Score 1) 168

Costco. One of the few companies that acts like it doesn't hate its customers.

Their total profits have been roughly equal to the revenue they get from membership fees, which suggests the customer experience (rather than marked up goods) is what they are really selling.

Comment Re:being a parent is now news. (Score 4, Insightful) 133

Likely a complete hallucination. Some people have severe trouble separating their serialized fantasies from reality.

That should be "sexualized fantasies".

You evaluated the claims and considered them probable enough (presumably familiar with the egregiousness of the state's failure to act on behalf of citizens in the Rothertham child exploitation coverups) that you wanted to protect yourself from egg on your face by caveating a "Likely" on your doubts.

However, with the same weighing of evidence in which you hedge on your own behalf, you feel comfortable proclaiming someone else guilty of depraved sexual perversions?

Interesting principles to live by.

Comment Re: being a parent is now news. (Score 2) 133

This accounting seems pretty close:

Jack knew his daughter was being exploited and desperately sought police support. He told GB News that he made hundreds of reports to South Yorkshire Police about her being missing.

But instead of the force sufficiently investigating the issue, Jack claimed that they arrested him twice as he tried to rescue his daughter from the den.

Doesn't mention directly assaulting the rapists so if it's what OP was referring to then he may have mixed up that detail with another story.

But given these rape cover ups spanned decades and involved over a thousand cases it's hard to say certainly if it's not just another case.

Comment Re:political attacks (Score 0) 55

... and we know which political party is doing the attacking.

Did you notice where the summary said "Most of that growth — 73% — happened in red [Republican-leaning] states. Eight of the top 10 states for new installations fall into that category, including Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, and Arkansas..."

Turns out that "We think solar is stupid but there's land here if you morons want to build it" is much less of an impediment to clean energy than "Oh we loooooove solar let's start the 10-year environment impact review process right away so we can get you your conditional permit."

Comment Claims not remotely supported (Score 4, Informative) 27

Building on earlier University of Washington research, [lead researcher] Godden's team analyzed blood samples from polar bears in northeastern and southeastern Greenland. In the slightly warmer south, they found that genes linked to heat stress, aging and metabolism behaved differently from those in northern bears. "Essentially this means that different groups of bears are having different sections of their DNA changed at different rates, and this activity seems linked to their specific environment and climate," Godden said in a university press release. She said this shows, for the first time, that a unique group of one species has been forced to "rewrite their own DNA," adding that this process can be considered "a desperate survival mechanism against melting sea ice...."

Alarming that this is quote is allegedly from the person listed as the lead author on the study.

The study didn't perform any measurements that could establish a rate of change of DNA. It didn't even look at DNA or any heritable differences between the bears, it only looks at RNA expression of markers it said were correlated.

More specifically it only looked at RNA expression *in the blood* for *17 bears* and used the average temperature of the nearest town to the bear population. So temperature was just a proxy for population with lots of confounders. The study did nothing either to show that those were *advantageous* changes for bears in heat-stressed areas.

About the only actual take away from the study is "there were differences in blood transcriptomes of bears at different latitudes." Any further meaning is an unevidenced hypothetical.

Which could certainly be a starting point for further research. But that's about the extent of it.

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