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Comment Re:I'm impressed with their tenacity (Score 1) 160

Agree with all your points.

It's possible I might have missed these, but they're also major considerations with COVID:

1. It causes scarring of tissue, especially heart tissue. That's why COVID sufferers often had severe blood clots in their bloodstream. Scarring of the heart increases risk of heart attacks, but there's obviously not much data on by how much, from COVID. Yet.

2. It causes brain damage in all who have been infected. Again, we have very little idea of how much, but from what I've read, there may be an increased risk of strokes in later life.

3. Viral load is known to cause fossil viruses in DNA to reactivate silenced portions. This can lead to cancer. Viral load has also been linked to multiple sclerosis and chronic fatigue, but it's possible COVID was the wrong sort of virus. These things can take decades to develop.

I would expect a drop in life expectancy, sometimes in the 2040-2050 timeframe, from life-shortening damage from COVID, but the probability depends on how much damage even mild sufferers sustained and what medicine can do to mitigate it by then. The first, as far as I know, has not been looked at nearly as much as long COVID has - which is fair. The second is obviously unknowable.

I'm hoping I'm being overly anxious, my worry is that I might not be anxious enough.

Comment Re:Time to resurrect the old meme... (Score 4, Insightful) 228

Just to add some insight:

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said: “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

https://apnews.com/article/tru...

So clueless.

The fact is that the trade imbalance is the largest single factor that makes the US dollar the world currency -- and also helps to keep the federal debt cheap. All of those countries that have a trade surplus with us send us lots of goods and in exchange they get lots of dollars. What do they do with them? They buy US-denominated securities, including treasury bonds. So many people and organizations around the world holding large reserves of US-denominated securities is what makes the dollar the world's default currency.

To the extent that he succeeds at "correcting" the trade imbalance, he'll undermine the dollar's status. And trying to bully countries into sticking with the dollar by threatening action that will make the dollar worth less to them is just... clueless. And that's assuming his actions to explode the debt while escalating financing costs doesn't result in enormous devaluation of the dollar, which would make it worthless rather than just worth less.

On balance I think I'm mostly glad that Trump is a moron, because if he weren't he would be really dangerous. On the other hand, if he had either a brain or the humility to listen to people who do, he might understand that he's trying to destroy what he's trying to control, and that winning that sort of game is losing. Probably not, though. He's amoral enough to be okay with ruling over a relative wasteland, because he and his will be better off.

Comment Re:Erm... (Score 1) 163

t takes between 150 kWh and 800 kWh to separate and liquify a ton of oxygen, so if you're paying $0.10 per kWh, LOX costs $15-80 per ton

It occurs to me that this is a good use of massive solar plants. It wouldn't cost much to idle your oxygen-separation equipment when the sun isn't shining, so you wouldn't need much in the way of battery storage. Grid scale solar without battery backup in a sunny area (like south Texas) can cost as little as $0.03/kWh, which would give you a separation cost of $4.5 to $24 per ton of LOX. Obviously, if you were producing LOX at a scale needed to fuel a fleet of Starships, you'd work to get that towards the bottom of the scale -- so the LOX loadout for a ship could cost on the order of 3500 * 4.5 = $15,750. To launch 150 tons to orbit. Of course you still need methane.

Could you make "green" methane (i.e. without using fossil fuels) with a big solar farm, and what would that cost? You'd do it with the Sabatier reaction to combine CO2 and H2 to get CH4. To make a ton of CH4 you need 2.75 tons of CO2 and 0.5 tons of H2 (stochiometry, dawg). To get a ton of CO2 with direct air capture takes about 2000 kWh of electricity, so 5500 kWh for the CO2. At $0.03/kWh that's $165 for the CO2. However, producing the half-ton of H2 with electrolysis would take 25,000 kWh, so $750. This puts the raw materials cost of green CH4 at around $915. The Sabatier reaction would add a little more, call it $930 in all.

So... Starship could be entirely solar-powered at a cost of around 3500 * 4.5 + 1000 * 930 = ~$946k, assuming $.03/kWh, ignoring equipment and storage overhead. It turns out that the cost is utterly dominated by the cost of methane production; LOX is all but free. But the cost of solar will likely continue to go down so... fuel costs could indeed get really, really low, even with a zero-carbon strategy. Perhaps as low as $2/kg to LEO.

Comment Re:Erm... (Score 2) 163

It will never cost that little. A Falcon 9 has about 400 tons of propellant. If it were all commercial diesel, it would cost $400,000, or $17 per kg of weight launched to LEO. But of course it's not commercial diesel. Liquid oxygen and RP1 are both much more expensive.

Starship burns methane, not RP1.

Between SuperHeavy and Starship, a fully-loaded stack needs 3500 tons of LOX and 1000 tons of CH4. So what do those cost?

Well, oxygen is easy to get from the atmosphere, so the cost of LOX is really just some equipment (which isn't terribly expensive to buy and maintain) plus electricity, and the cost ends up being dominated by the cost of electricity. It takes between 150 kWh and 800 kWh to separate and liquify a ton of oxygen, so if you're paying $0.10 per kWh, LOX costs $15-80 per ton. There are some other costs to handle and store it, so let's say $100/ton.

CH4 can be created many ways. The cheapest is probably to purify natural gas, which costs about $190 per ton (that site shows ~$5 per 1000 ft^3, and a ton is 38k ft^3). Add some costs for purification and cooling, so call it $250/ton.

3500 tons LOX * $100/ton + 1000 tons CH4 * 250/ton = $600k. Musk usually calls it $1M, which seems pretty reasonable, since they're probably not separating/purifiying it themselves and there transportation costs. 150 tons of payload to LEO with $1M worth of fuel means the fuel-only cost is $6.67/kg.

Comment Re:Erm... (Score 1) 163

we have enough accumulated knowledge that just getting to orbit shouldn't be accompanied by a string of failures like Starship has been having

Nonsense. Our only experience with reusable orbital rockets is the space shuttle, which was an unsustainably-expensive and complex beast that was more refurbishable than reusable and had a payload one fifth of what Starship is designed for. It's all of the differences that aim to make Starship both reusable and cheap that make it hard. It's possible that it's just too ambitious, that we don't yet have the technology to make a cheap, fully-reusable (not refurbishable, reusable) orbital rocket with massive capacity. No one else has done it... no one else is even trying, that's how hard it is.

Failure is expected. If they managed to launch and land both Starship and SuperHeavy in less than a dozen test flights, that would be the surprise.

Comment Damn (Score 1) 61

My latest vaccine shots had the 6G upgrade, to take advantage of the higher-speed web access when the networks upgrade, but if they're selling those frequencies to high-power carriers, then I won't be able to walk into any area that handles AT&T or Verizon. :P

Seriously, this will totally wreck the 6G/WiFi6 specification, utterly ruin the planned 7G/WiFi7 update, and cause no end of problems to those already using WiFi6 equipment - basically, people with working gear may well find their hardware simply no longer operates, which is really NOT what no vendor or customer wants to hear. Vendors with existing gear will need to do a recall, which won't be popular, and the replacement products simply aren't going to do even a fraction as well as the customers were promised - which, again, won't go down well. And it won't be the politicians who get the blame, despite it being the politicians who are at fault.

Comment Re:Raise your hand if you're surprised (Score 1) 209

Between all the permafrost melting across Russia to methane to massive fossil fuel use, how can anybody be surprised? I have long viewed the worst possibilities as the most likely. The most likely predictions always seemed pretty damn optimistic. We fucked.

I'm surprised, and you should be too, if your view is evidence-based, because this is a new effect that was not predicted by any of the previous models, which already consider the melting permafrost, methane emissions and fossil fuel use.

Comment Re:Psthetic (Score 1) 85

It isn't, but in Japan as in many other cultures the woman is considered to have joined her husband's family and her showing respect for his family is more important than him showing respect for her family.

Comment Re:Duh (Score 1) 181

in a world where overpopulation strains every system and food scarcity becomes unavoidable

I suppose, but that's nothing like the world we live in. In our world, food is abundant at never-before-seen levels. Agricultural productivity has not only matched but significantly exceeded population growth. Unless climate change or some catastrophic event has large negative impacts on food production, directly or indirectly, it seems unlikely that the human race will ever again experience significant food scarcity.

Comment Re:in other words (Score 1) 181

Because... and bear with me here.... humans developed the LLMs.

I think it's more likely that approximation is necessary to complex, higher-level thinking, and that produces a certain form of error which is therefore inherent in all intelligences capable of it. This can be improved by adding subsystems that compute more precisely, just as humans do, using processes and equipment to augment their intellectual abilities, ranging from complex computation engines to pencil and paper (Einstein said "My pencil and me are smarter than me").

Comment Re:Quick History lesson (Score 1) 185

That constitutional amendment was NEVER meant to allow any foreigner to come to the US and drop a kid and have it be a US citizen ......

It was to ensure the slaves were treated as citizens...they were forcibly brought here....

Very different.

SCOTUS didn't actually rule on this.....but they need to and change the misuse of this that has haunted us till this day.

What other countries allow this so readily....that a non-citizen drops a kid in your country and it has automatic citizenship and full rights??

Comment Re:No change happens in a vacuum. (Score 3, Insightful) 185

So remind me again why trans people acting on their own fundamental and unchangeable mental processes that don't hurt anyone are bad? Maybe also explain again why respecting these people is "identity politics" while hating on them isn't as I didn't follow your logic there. I also don't follow how struggling to find new terminology to cover a minority group that has only been recently recognized (despite having always been there) is hateful.

For grown adults...no one gives a fuck if they want to play dress up, or call themselves whatever they want to call themselves (pronouns , etc).

The problem is when they want to force the overwhelming majority of normal people in the world to play their game with them....

Throwing fits when a normal server at a restaurant calls what looks to be a male "mr" or "sir"....trying to get them fired, etc.

It comes when men calling themselves women, start to intrude into real womens' spaces...locker rooms, competing in women's sports....etc.

The real thing that sank that ship, is when they started coming for children.

Trying to force books on trans and queer on school children.....in some states, ruling against parents that refused to permanently harm their kids with medical "trans help treatments"....hormones, surgery.

Allowing ultra left teachers to hide secrets on sexuality from parents while allowing them to speak sexuality into the children's ear....

People tend to get really fucking uptight when you start fucking with their kids....and moving to that plane was a bridge too far for normal people and parents.

Again, if you're a grown adult...you can dress and act how you want to....you can chop off or surgically do whatever you want with your own body and no one care.....aside from not wanting to PAY for it....that's on you too.

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