Comment Re:Whereas the rest of us believe... (Score 1) 102
Popular opinion is poor evidence.
Popular opinion is poor evidence.
This is kind of like saying that car wrecks wouldn't happen if we had training and standards that excluded 95% of drivers
More like 99.99%. Maybe need some more nines in there. Large C codebases without regular critical CVEs are basically nonexistent.
Sam et al warn us to take actions that will save them from bankruptcy
What bankruptcy-prevention actions are they asking for?
It's a research program so, yes "That doesn't mean LLMs *will* deliver AGI". But what are your grounds for being certain taht it won't?
Even if it were sentient, it would be acting as the agent of the company that was running it, so they would still be to blame.
If you don't like "reward", say "positive feedback". It means the same thing, except for being more formally defined.
LLMs cannot have inherent values, because they don't know that anything besides text exists. Specialized pixel editors have similar problems.
Robots will at least understand the the external reality exists, so perhaps they could have inherent values.
15-25 kWh drawn by the utility is quite a bit! I hope they're paying him well for that.
Monopolist wants the competition to slow down while they speed up in secret.
They're bringing outside scrutiny into their processes; that's going to slow them down, too.
A few days ago there was a story about how an AI store was failing horribly. It can't do that, but at the same time will destroy us?
Not "at the same time". You're conflating what AI can do now with what it will likely be able to do in a year or five, or 20.
Amodei and others are worried about what AI that doesn't yet exist may do, not about what current-generation AI can do. AI is getting better, very quickly, and unless there's some blocking obstacle that no one has been able to identify will at some point become far, far smarter than humans, individually or collectively. So before that happens, we need to figure out how to make sure that superintelligent AI wants to help us, and wants to do it in the right way.
With all this rushing to improve AI engines and whatnot? It's the uptime/reliability that's concerning me as much as anything else.
I've seen ChatGPT Work have multiple outages just in the short time our office started using it. And even when they claim systems are running normally? You can easily get timeouts trying to complete relatively simple requests in systems like Co-Pilot, at least using the free edition.
If I ask my co-worker to complete a task, I have a pretty reasonable assumption he's going to do that. If he fails to complete requests several times in a short time-frame? Then it's likely he'll get in trouble for that, even potentially resulting in his termination. AI should be held to an even higher standard since it's a machine.
What happens when everyone is counting on AI to do necessary parts of daily workflows and then it has an extended outage? That's like your whole workforce going on strike.
If things were to otherwise stay the same, then it would. They won't. Some descendant of "vibe coding" will become the dominant mode within 20 years. Probably a *lot* sooner. Next year wouldn't really surprise me.
Also, Rust is more complex to use than C, so a small program is much better in C. And a large program is probably better in either C++ or Python(with a lot of library calls).
I don't like Rust, so I'm probably not being fair to it, but I struggle to identify a good use case. (Personally, I'd rather use Forth than Rust.)
Note however "will be", not "is". It's not there yet.
Then you have the problem of getting the right standards.
Then you have the problem of getting the right specs.
Then you have the problem of getting the right problem.
There's probably an end to this somewhere, but I doubt that it will be in perfection.
To write good code is a worthy challenge, and a source of civilized delight. -- stolen and paraphrased from William Safire