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Comment Re: MAGA! (Score 3, Interesting) 321

I concur. The unemployment rate is about 4% and even the more padded U6 unemployment rate is below 5%
Those are normal.
Under condition when unemployment rates are normal the primary job of the federal reserve is to bring down inflation. It's not simply a good idea. It's their mandate

The fact that there are more jobseekers than jobs is also close to normal. There's always a mismatch between jobs and jobseekers.

It may well be that those jobs are demotions or involve moving etc..

So the Fed has done everthing correctly.

But now they are on toes because we have the immigrant labor leaving and hightarrufs.

While those might increase the number of jobs available it might not fund takers. And both will cause supply side inflation. Simultaneously extending the tax cuts and the debt ceiling means the high rate of pumping debt into the economy will continue.

So the Fed is in an uncharted territory . It could mean high inflation is coming. Most likely. But it could mean a recession. You love the rate in opposite directions there! Most likely is both: stagflation. Which is awful. We did the stagflation experiment in the early 70s and tried both spending into it and later raising interest rates sky high. Only the latter worked.

Fed is exactly doing the right Thing by being watchful

Comment Re: Humans always beat computers.. until we don't (Score 1) 46

I just took the time to read most his 2022 post and it didnt hold up very well. He illustrates why gpt 3 is a dead end but I just tried the exact example on gpt 4o and it passed with flying colors.

The premise is that scaling wonâ(TM)t work and that the world is overly focused on the LLM approach.

He claims tagging images wont work well enough for radiology. Fine but companies like Surona medical seem to be still around years later.

He claims that image tagging wont work but an iPhone does an amazing job of identifying species of things in nature⦠absolutely amazing. And you can now generate captions for image locally on an old MacBook using hugging face models. Itâ(TM)s not perfect but I can be sure that itâ(TM)s made a ton of progress since 2022. So the world isnt just focused on llms these are computer vision models.

Suno is generating mediocre music, far better than it did last year when it was abysmal and some music AI didnt even have language two years ago. Now you can generate country music about retiring your toothbrush that sounds legit.

Finally computer coding is obviously working quite well.

He makes the old tripe of the probabilistic stochastic parrot not having comprehension. Sorry but I believe thats how the human brain works as well.

Comment Re: Kiss Monetary policy and the USA goodbye (Score 2) 52

I understand your knee jerk intuition about crypto currency. But very earnestly I suggest learning a bit about monetary policy. It's indispensable. And after that you may want to read about bretton woods and how banks in different countries actually can trade money to each other. The US treasury and its impact on monetary policy enables this. It's not just a methodology in the sense that bitcoin is a method for moving money. Monetary policy is how countries can perform the miracle of Keynesian economics to regenerate Growth in a downturn. That cannot ever be done ever without fiat currency and a central bank. Period. This was. Why for example Germany plunged in to pre-hitler ruin after world war 1. There was no way to climb out of turned down economy when you had no gold reserves (France took them). Germany only managed to recover when they pegged their mark to a kilo of wheat-- not a long term solution but a desperate move that mostly worked. But the economic malaise didn't end till Hitler started spending money into the economy. That was made possible by moving off the gold standard prior to Hitler.

Without monetary policy you are left with the austerity of Austrian economics which pretty much inverts the rational of monetary policy and loses all it's advantages.

Comment Re: Can't believe the vison-impaired comments (Score 1) 65

MoonPlayer justifies the entire price of the Apple Vision Pro. There you go, a single app makes the whole thing worthwhile. Another one would be the YouTube safari extension enabling you to watch YouTube on a 20 foot screen. Itâ(TM)s knock your socks off amazing. Spatial photos in the Apple Photos app are incredible. The environments are pretty phenomenal too.

Comment Re: Apple's Last VR headset had a bad design (Score 1) 65

Ridiculous argument. Absolutely nobody uses HoloLens. And the fov of HoloLens was useless.Vision Pro has a wide fov by comparison and FoV is certainly not a weak spot. Vision Pro has an active user base and itâ(TM)s selling fast enough to be profitable this year⦠paying for 8 years of development in just a year or two.

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