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Comment Re:A modest proposal (Score 1) 242

You do understand that products are "essentially fungible" and crude is semi-fungibl (most crude is pretty fungible), and the US is not an island in this marketplace?

Also, you do realize that Aframax rents from Venezuela are ~$1,5m in early 2026 to ~$3,5M? Even your "cheap case" is increasing crude prices by 5%. But to repeat: the US is not an island in this global marketplace. Products get exported from US refineries and sell at globally competitive prices, which forces US consumers to pay globally-competitive prices as well.

Comment Re:This just in - Trump Grifts some more (Score 2) 94

Well, I know about that, so I guess I should have been more specific. What I don't get is the perpetual falling for it again. They get nothing they were promised, or they get a little bit of it temporarily (like Trump(1)'s tax cuts for lower income people which expired after two years) and then it gets yoinked away and they just come back for another round.

It really has to be the cultism that I don't get? Because I think we've all been where we thought we could do things we couldn't, some of us just extrapolated from lessons learned from failure...

Comment Re:This just in - Trump Grifts some more (Score 3, Interesting) 94

Most people didn't choose that part of this consciously, because they didn't understand it, and if they did, they didn't believe it.

What I don't get is how those people can think they're smart when the counterevidence is so persistent.

Comment Re: "Eat the rich!" (Score 1) 123

I"m getting so tired of this perineal complaint.....

No need to tell us you don't care about anyone but yourself, because you've told us in so many words many times before. What a waste of everyone's time.

Everyone needs to have skin in the game.

Since you don't care about anyone but yourself, caring about what you think or have to say is inherently destructive to anyone who wants to have a working sockety.

pay flat tax or fair tax or whatever you want to call it.

I call it a stupid fucking idea that can't work proposed only by idiots, assholes, or assholes who are idiots.

Comment Re:A modest proposal (Score 3, Interesting) 242

I just tried this for fun with Gemini (hardly the best model, but I wasn't about to spend the money having an agentic framework of high-end models go over it ;) ). It advised:

1) Working with the Iranians at the upcoming UN meeting to try to strike a deal where the US stops its blockage of Iranian oil in exchange for Iran allowing free traffic through Hormuz, without nuclear programme preconditions.

2) Adding pressure on Putin to accept the Ukrainian offer of a mutual energy industry targeting ceasefire

3) Focus freed up US naval forces on protecting convoys through the Bab-el-Mandeb

4) Launching an emergency Jones Act waiver

5) Order the EPA Administrator to issue temporary waivers easing seasonal Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) gasoline restrictions and granting flexibility on Tier 3 sulfur credit banking.

6) Convene the CEOs of the top domestic refiners into a taskforce run by the Department of Energy to coordinate autumn maintenance schedules to avoid multiple regional coker and hydrocracker units taking turnaround downtime simultaneously.

7) Formally announce that the administration will not conduct large-scale, unrefined crude releases from the SPR. Signal to the industry that physical crude in domestic storage is adequate, shifting regulatory focus to downstream bottlenecks.

8) Reprogram allocated DOE infrastructure funds ($1.4 billion) to expedite cavern repairs at Bryan Mound and Bayou Choctaw.

9) Deploy the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) strictly on an exchange/loan basis (where refiners borrow diesel barrels now and repay them with interest in refined barrels next spring) to protect national balance sheets while easing spot tightness

10) Issue an Executive Order under the Defense Production Act (DPA) to expedite pipeline compressor stations and pipeline permits connecting the Permian Basin to Gulf Coast refining hubs

11) Direct the Surface Transportation Board to prioritize crude and chemical feedstock movements on Class I railroads.

12) Use USDA Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) authorities to establish emergency fuel cost-offset credits for agricultural producers and commercial freight carriers until crack spreads retreat below $30/barrel.

13) Announce this unified security-and-energy plan publicly to provide appropriate signals to the market.

Comment Re:So we all know they are lying (Score 1) 269

I've got a bunch of weird bots that follow me around on this forum.

Between that and all of the AC posts about how anyone who thinks American officials should be held accountable is supporting Iranian terrorists this place is creepy AF. It's like the haunted woods in Oz.

Comment Re:Hegseth Disbanded the Civilian Protection COE (Score 1) 269

Trumpism is a form of anti-democratic, authoritarian-oligarchy that exists only within the context of an eternal conflict.

Yes, but same for America as we know it. It's always operated as an oligarchy, no matter what dressings-up have been wrapped around that. It was founded on genocide and treaty breaking and slavery is in the constitution today and we still have slaves picking cotton.

Comment Re:Distributed responsibility and transparency (Score 1) 269

Until recently, drone strikes required a long sequence of command decisions

And we were informed at least about the number of strikes due to an Obama EO which Trump tore up, but not until after through it we learned that he was authorizing four times as many strikes as did Obama.

I was satisfied to see videos of the "narco terrorist" boats get destroyed, and then the survivors killed.

I know that there was some text after this that's relevant, but there still must surely have been a better way to put this. Also, the odds of anyone responsible being held accountable for that ever are roughly zero.

Comment Re:A modest proposal (Score 3, Insightful) 242

The US economy as a whole would lose more from banning exports than it would gain. If one is concerned about "ordinary people", it makes more sense to continue allowing exports, add a windfall tax on oil companies or add export duties, and then rebate the revenue from that across the US population, than to ban exports.

Had the oil industry not been so naive and spent this whole year betting on TACO and/or Iranian surrender, the US could be making even more money right now on this crisis. New shale production from an existing lease can be added in just 3-6 months, yet shale expansion rates didn't increase over baseline from spring through the summer. Refining capacity is harder to add that quickly, but probably could have been boosted several percent, which would still be a quite meaningful added value. It gets harder to improve capacity now because most types of capacity addition involve downtime and absolutely nobody wants to be shut down now while crack spreads are this high.

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