Comment Bitcoin is worth ... (Score 1) 97
Bitcoin is worth whatever the market says it's worth. But it does have some features that are very hard to replicate.
1. Security: The solid technical and game-theoretic basis means that even a nation state working for years to accumulate hash power and energy production would need to spend something like $200B to wrestle control of the network from the native miners and nodes. It would also be unlikely to last due to difficulty adjustments. At best, you could hope to temporarily undermine confidence in the network by spending 10's of billions. Quantum resistance is technically achievable today and the upgrade is feasible before quantum attacks are practical.
2. Speed/cost: You can securely execute large transactions in less than an hour. No other network or physical commodity can offer this level of fungibility, security and speed. The transaction cost is negligible for meaningful value transfers. You cannot get the same level of assurance and speed with fiat networks such as SWIFT. You increasingly run the risk of political exclusion on dollar networks (Russia, Iran, N. Korea, and political dissidents are all well-aware that their dollar bank balances can be useless or forfeit at any moment; many people are taking note both inside and outside the USA). The cost and speed of transaction with commodities like gold is very high and very slow. You might have to cross an ocean with a battleship or a fighter escort on 747 to properly secure a $2B transaction in gold. You CAN choose to trust intermediaries such as gold banking networks (ex COMEX). These have already begun to show cracks in their ability to deliver during times of peak demand, but they are also subject to political risk. Moving stacks of physical dollars is about as cumbersome as moving gold.
3. Sovereignty: you can control a vast amount of value by just memorizing 12 seed words.
4. Network effect: no other blockchain has the reach of Bitcoin. No other crypto network has as much value. This is a major incentive to continue to cooperatively upgrade and collectively invest in securing that value.
5. Strictly limited supply.
You can argue any of these points but in reality it is extremely hard to engage in practical attacks against them. As other monetary networks evolve, they will continue to expose their relative weaknesses vis-a-vis Bitcoin. Dollars are the strongest fiat, useful for many transactions, but they continually inflate away value. Gold inflates slower but also has a worse security and transferability profile. Other cryptos trade minor features for major drawbacks. Any truly useful feature adopted by other chains can be integrated into Bitcoin or sidechains in a conservative but inevitable timeline because there is more incentive to upgrade than to adopt a smaller, less proven network.
The longer that Bitcoin persists with these features and as it becomes more widely useful for smaller transactions, and especially as fiat currencies inevitably fail, the proposition of storing value in Bitcoin will become evident to a larger number of people. Because it has no intrinsic value (btw, just like dollars, yen, yuan, etc) Bitcoin exchange rates will swing widely until a plurality of people (and agents) adopt it for savings. That will naturally raise the exchange rate (price) and diminish the swings. We are already seeing the beginnings of this with the price action in the last few years continuing to be dramatic, but much less so than in earlier years. As volatility continues to decline, Bitcoin will become more useful for shorter-duration savings and smaller transaction values, continuing to accrete size and value to the network.
In other words, the intrinsic value of Bitcoin does not matter, just as it does not matter for fiat. The properties of Bitcoin DO matter. If those properties all continue to hold, the shift of usage and expansion of the network will continue. It will increase in value over time simply because more people value it.
I could be missing something and look forward to responses that might expose the holes in my argument.