Investors are chasing a company that achieves some kind of AI singularity. Let's set aside the fact that there's no reason to believe there is anything but diminishing marginal returns by making marginal refinements to current frontier models. Let's imagine someone hits the jackpot and gets, not even AGI, but a system that's as far ahead of today's frontier model are ahead of 2020's GPT 2.0 in performance.

Globally AI revenues are 150 billion, against a cumulative burn rate of 450 billion. A model that is a generation ahead of others would almost certainly capture the lion's share of that revenue.

If AGI magically appears as a Sam Altman has promised investors it will, a hundred million is way too low. Add, maybe, another zero to the revenues.

Conservatively, a safer assumption is that frontier models will get marginally better based on refinements in training and reinforcement and the other bits and bobs that go into these systems. The nobody is winning the lion's share of anything, at least overnight. But you have to define "safe". By "safe" I mean unlikely to lose money. But some investors are clearly defining "safe" as "having the greatest chance of owning a piece of the biggest thing ever."

I'm not following this super-closely, but if Anthropic is pursuing adding multi-step model based reasoning to their system, that could be the basis of a generational leap in capability. But if that is an approach that looks like it has a chance of working, then their competitors are no doubt pursuing the same thing. In that case you'd expect the revenue pie to grow as the scope of model utilty increases, but that growth to be split among several competitors. This could credibly result in a revenue stream for some of them that is as big as the entire industry's revenue stream today. But there's going to be hell to pay on the data center impacts end of things.

I can't remember the last time I witnessed a hospital demonstrating general competence

Where do you live where it is so bad there?

Unfortunately in the past 2 years...ive had to make a number of visits to the ER and one major surgrery....and I could NOT be happier with the doctors, nurses and general staff of the hospitals I've been too....

And my insurance covered most of all of it...didn't put me in the poor house like so many seem to claim will happen in the US if you get some much as a hang nail....this is private medicine I'm talking about with me, not VA.

My 16 year old daughter just got advice from her Pediatrician on how to get into Medical School - go to a small college where the Profs know you and you can convince them to inflate your grades, there is too much competition in big schools and no room to influence your grades outside your work So basically, try to cheat a little. Thanks Doc.

Well, being female, gives her an advantage for Med School....AND if she's a minority female, that really helps mover her closer to the top of the list....

It's only one semester, and a semester of the least important material of their university time.

Err...where did you go to school where 1st semester/year wasn't important stuff?

I was in all the weed out classes....chemistry, calculus 1...etc....

Hell I didn't get any "easy" classes like sociology or one English reading classes (sci fi books) till like I was a Junior or maybe senior.....

"In order to salve the mental health of freshman student..."

JFC...are you fscking KIDDING ME?

Is this just the next natural progression from everyone getting a participationi trophy in grade schools?

Why is it today's kids are so mentally deficient in ways that all other generations till the past decade haven't been troubled with??

Look, not everyone is cut out for college ....and those early classes, are weed out classes like others have said...at least they used to be.

Stress is a real part of REAL LIFE and this is a good time to learn these lessons.

Learn them early if they aren't college material....and let them get out before racking up massive debt in a degree that won't pay shit in the end.

I read the other day where incoming freshman these days, I think in the 5%-8% range had to take remedial math?!?! Our 1-12 schools aren't preparing them.....

If we keep lowering the standards....we're not helping anyone, we're hurting all them in the long run.

Let's re-think educations....some kids SHOULD be left behind for higher education, but that doesnt' mean we don't teach them some real skills where they can earn a living and contribute to society.

But for God's sake, let's quit coddling these little fuckers...they're going soft in ways that never even occurred to previous generations....

One of the requirements to become a US Citizen is you have to show some proficiency in American English.

Other countries have an official language, we need to make it official here.

We want people coming into the US to assimilate and the greatest tools for that is common language.

You rarely go to other countries and hear commercials in different languages ......certainly the signage for streets, etc is not in multiple languages...etc.

There is nothing bigoted about expecting someone trying to live in your country to speak the common language ....

The USA doesn't have an official language.

We need to fix that...other countries have official languages.....why not us?

Here in the US, audio recording without consent is prohibited by wiretap laws, but not video recording... sigh.

That's not quite true....

That's ONLY true in states that mandate both parties consent to and know they're being recorded.

Many, if not most states...allow for one party consent, so usually the person recording knows its recording and therefore legal.

If you record in public without consent, the only thing you should be allowed to do with that video is maintain it in private and use it for security or investigative purposes for a fixed time window. Any other use should be prohibited, and yes that this includes use by the media.

News reporting?

And anyone can be a news reporter potentially.....

This is the USA.

Speak fucking English!!!

They stopped recycling here for years, but I think recently they brought it back, BUT you have to pay extra for it, and I don't really see anyone in my area apparently paying for it, as that I don't see anyone recycle bins out for pickup....

This means you're likely throwing some things in the trash that shouldn't be there.

Well if they take it away, then it is OK to throw it away with them, eh?

You might be surprised how many women actually enjoy porn.

Err...as the old saying goes..."real" men don't care what women want...

;)

But seriously.....sure there are women that like it, but not nearly enough in numbers to drive content made and published at least not the general masses.

I think most would agree, porn would be a lot better for society if more "real people" were in it. Instead of a LA fitness instructor with huge breast implants, like we saw in the 80s and 90s and 00s...what if it was actual women and men who are actually in love with their partners and have imperfect bodies? What if lonely people watched healthy, positive, loving sex instead of impersonal performances?

Err...because that gets old and boring REALLY REALLY fast.

No one is watching pr0n to learn relationship lessons....people just want to get off and get back to their day....

And, everyone has a different body type they prefer, etc......there's niches for everyone....

I like in a large suburban/urban area and I have to go to the dump for certain kinds of waste (batteries, UPSes, eWaste, etc).

Yeah...we just throw all that stuff in the "regular" trash and they haul it away.

Where you live, do the garbage men actually slow down and stop their jobs to "inspect" your trash, open up bags, etc...to see what you are throwing away in there?