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Comment Re:Scott Adams answered. (Score 1) 11

Are you talking about assertion #3?

I wasn't but I accept #3 as responsive and concede the point.

On the other hand he basically says, "Why yes, we do use human intuition to tune the models every year rather than let the math rule." For a system that's novel and investigatory I'd be inclined to let that slide, but for a system being used to justify trillions of dollars in economic change, I find the models' slipperiness concerning.

scientific consensus arises naturally

There are a couple of meanings that get applied to the word "consensus." One of them is "general agreement," as in no participant objects. Another is "the judgement arrived at by most of those concerned" which is a slippery version of majority vote. There are even variants like "strong consensus" meaning explicitly 100% concur and "rough consensus" meaning that the remaining holdouts can like it or lump it.

Which is your version of "scientific consensus"? My version is that if you have to prove that consensus has been attained then it hasn't. Because actual consensus is just that obvious.

Comment Re:Scott Adams answered. (Score 1) 11

Well I did read it, and let me tell you what I read. I read a claim that the models continue to be adjusted to fit the new data and I read a response that no, the data is not being adjusted to fit the models. That's what's called a straw man argument. Instead of refuting the claim that's made, pick a claim that sounds vaguely similar and refute it instead.

Now, you say the AR4 model has been good. And you link to a graphic which does not say "AR4" anywhere on it and instead lists predictions from several models. And more importantly, doesn't demonstrate any controls.

Where's the chart that says, "the AR4 model predicted this line for 20% more emissions than we had and it predicted that line for 20% less emissions than we had, it predicted this line for the upper bound of the error band on the emissions we measured, and it predicted that line for the lower bound on the emissions we measured. Oh look, the actual prediction tracks the measured results while the test predictions clearly miss as expected."

I'm not just being rhetorical here. I've waited years to see a chart that said, "here's what happened, and here's what would have happened if we'd done X instead." With a change in result that's outside the error bands. I'm still waiting.

As for "consensus," you can dress it up as a survey of scientists deemed credible but in the end it's just a vote with a sloppy tally.

Comment as it begins, so it ends (Score 1) 180

I'm not going to blame Fitbit. But they didn't earn any positive karma, either.

Nor am I surprised that the real reason came out of the blue, after it was too late to inform my decision (I would have bought one for spare, while supplies lasted).

Emphasis with Kickstarter is "start". Then it quickly morphs (usually) into the same old close-to-the-vest business wisdom, and you end up with half of the advantage you wished for, and a quarter as much stability as a going concern.

I have zero interest in any other smart watch.

Sigh. It's a sad thing.

Comment three large screens (Score 1) 68

Carousels can suck it.

I've whipped up CSS Userscripts to remove them from web pages more than once, lest I click on one in a moment of weakness (which I always regret 3 s later).

Old motto: there's another fish in the sea. This maxim is true, also, regarding web content. But it often helps to enforce this programmatically.

Comment ctrl-v strikes again (Score 1) 68

Google's main product is advertising and user info (to better target advertising), not search.

And this tired observation moves the discussion forward how exactly?

I've seen this helpful ctrl-v "eyeballs are the product" contribution more than a 100 and probably less than a 1000 times since I joined Slashdot.

Add some useful context? Ah, fuck it. ctrl-v has miles to go before it sleeps.

Comment Re:Qualcomm doesn't make chips (Score 2) 99

You're entirely right that the memory subsystem is 90% of the battle for most server workloads once you exceed ten cores.

For integer workloads with unreasonable parallelism and unreasonable cache locality (that Intel's AVX doesn't already handle almost ideally), I'm sure this design will smoke Intel on the thermal management envelope, a nice niche to gain Qualcomm some traction in the server mix, but hardly a shot heard around the world.

And Qualcomm better be good, because Intel will soon respond with Omni-Path Knights Hill—perhaps also larded with HBM—that could probably take on the same workload between power sprints (less power efficiency in the CPU itself—which isn't always the main power draw—and probably more flexible as part of a tidy one-vendor-rules-them-all server mix).

I'm all for vendor diversity, but let's not get ahead of ourselves thinking that 10 nm levels the playing field, sucking down the data aquifer through a double-wide handful of drinking straws.

Yes, core count matters, but size matters even more when it comes to the hose.

Looky looky, the bow moveth:

Intel announcements for AI: Nervana 100x faster than GPU, Knights Crest & Mill 4x faster, SKL mid-17

Kx Streaming Analytics Crunches 1.2 Billion NYC Taxi Data Points using Intel Xeon Phi

Comment Re: What I want to know is who keeps telling Tom H (Score 1) 76

On Internet forums, especially if you're AC, "fascism" just means "zealousness". Like, "I hate the liberal fascists just as much as the conservative ones, and the Green Party fascists are the worst.".

No, what it means is that we have a troll here whose agenda is to tilt the entire exchange so that every political disposition is judged against the most strident example of the first-to-mind reductive cliche.

It's a war against subtlety. It's a war against moderates and it's a war against moderation—where "moderation" means the kind of people who think before speaking. It's a distributed, grassroots campaign to normalize the extremes through the implication that all stupidity is created equal. It's painting an f-washed world in which no person is angry or intense because they have a valid point to make about some aspect of society being not right. It's an exit ramp lowered to a swamp world where anger is a Halloween costume (Yoda, Darth Vader), rather than a tool (Martin Luther King, Jr).

That's what it means when 'fascism' becomes a trivialized wingnut stand-in for 'zealotry', a word which already has two boots firmly planted in labelling over listening. Add heels, click, and the world becomes corn-belt Kansas 24/7.

Comment Scott Adams is right. (Score 0) 11

Scott Adams is right.

A model isn't predictive until it demonstrates predictions which are confirmed. That doesn't happen until the model is stable, that is until it no longer has to be adjusted to fit new data. You don't have to be an expert in any particular science to know this because it's true in every science, part of the basic methodology of science.

Moreover, the old saw about Congress repealing the law of gravity reveals a basic truth about the operation of science. Voting is politics not science. When scientists resort to voting about something, the result has left the realm of science.

Finally, the fastest way to prove something is to vigorously attempt to disprove it... and fail. A political climate in which such experiments are impossible to rationally discuss (denier! denier!) and impossible to fund is inimical to science.

Comment Re:Fake news? (Score 1) 407

Those terms are meant to

I'm not feeling generous today, so I won't write a correspondingly pedantic essay about the meaning of words is never so cut and dried, not even when socially ratified by unnamed parties.

I've always thought the guy in the bright-orange vest with the LED-powered traffic control baton who originally assigned these things to the left and right was a bit of an idiot with a small mind.

But it appears he did have an algorithm after all, however naive. Thanks for boiling that down so succinctly.

Comment all lizard brains are created equal (Score 1) 159

I studied myself, and noticed the same thing: that my choices were a direct function of the quality of goods available. So I fired all the low quality options (and haven't looked back).

Also, if there's a giant bag of potato chips in the house, my odds of cooking a healthy meal go down by about 50%. So I fired the chips, too.

Netflix is right: all lizard brains are created equal.

Comment two stacked LCDs? (Score 3, Insightful) 102

Reading between the lines, it sure sounds like they just stacked two LCDs and bumped the brightness of the light source. Mind you, that's a very good idea. The new underneath layer probably only needs single R/G/B group resolution in order to achieve the claimed specs, making it somewhat easier to manufacture, although alignment is still going to be important to get right, as will appropriately close bonding of the two planes to control leakage from one luminance cell (for want of a better word) to the neighboring RGB cells in the color layer.

A highly-motivated enthusiast might be able to get close to the same results by merging two existing IPS monitors and bumping the light source brightness.

Comment Re:AI doesn't exist (Score 1) 22

You think human intelligence isn't an algorithm?

This issue is surprisingly divisive, even among those you'd think would know better (feasible scenario: perhaps they do).

Federico Faggin at UC Berkeley 2-19-2014

Pretty good, if you like this kind of thing.

1h12m41 he takes a question from the audience, and goes off into space (Hilbert space) on the underlying quantum mechanism of human consciousness (and mental creativity).

"You know, I am one of those guys who do not think that consciousness is an epiphenomenon of the operation of the brain. I thought like everyone else ... "

You think human intelligence isn't an algorithm?

Just one thing, is this unremarkable stock remark a terminating process, or have I personally fallen into an ELIZA trap?

Comment DK-impervious = DK-permeable (Score 1) 379

One of the most important things is knowing when you don't know enough.

TAoCP is a never-fail personal Dunning–Kruger removal tool.

I never finished the mathematics degree I once started, but I always found the larger concepts easy enough to understand when sitting beside a real mathematician.

I certainly would have difficulty completing most of the HM exercises (this despite also owning Concrete Math). I rarely have difficulty understanding the form of the solution if I cheat and look it up.

Another book I'd put into the same category, roughly, was the original Applied Cryptography where it ought to be far more obvious that one shouldn't naively roll one's own, but somehow, for too many DK-impervious DK-permeable programmers out there, it isn't. (I'm looking at you, Wi-Fi Alliance; and every idiot who ever used the speedy MD5 to hash a password database, with or without salt, or worse.)

There's little wrong with Knuth's exposition that actual competence wouldn't fix.

You do the math.

Comment immune system flanked (Score 1) 324

Who knew that fact checking was an essential component of the human immune system?

Unbeknownst to him, all is not well in the harem. His wife and one of his mistresses are independently plotting his demise. The wife poisons the water in his canteen, while the mistress punctures the canteen so that the water slowly leaks out.

The Sheik sets out on the journey. After a few miles he feels parched. He unscrews the cap on his canteen and finds, much to his displeasure, that it is empty. He soon dies of dehydration.

Question: who caused the Utahan fracker's death, the wolf-calling media bias Republican or the relative-identity-politics Democrat?

Moral of the story: no time like the present to grease the squeaky wheels. And if that doesn't work, concrete shoes.

so much depends
upon

a red wheel
barrow

glazed with rain
water

beside the white
chickens.

Yes, so much depends upon one yellowish-green wheel to muck the mules, situated at the goddamn factual (and spectral) midline.

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