Comment Re: Standing on the shoulders of giants (Score 1) 115
The person you answered to has nothing, especially not any understanding of what AI research took place in the last decades. Hence they just try to confuse the issue and introduce something completely irrelevant as the new main topic. Obvious and unsophisticated.
The reality is that the LLM fans are essentially cultists and that they have completely lost sight of all the limitations we find in LLMs. Sure, LLMs are not useless. They allow better search (with sometimes really bad hallucinations and misinformation), they can summarize things in a way that helps experts (non-experts may be grossly misled though). What they cannot do competently is synthesize anything. Text-slop, code-slop, code that on repeated changes re-introduces regressions (which competent coders will not do), and even art- and music-slop. So, to better deal with the mountain of data we have today, they are somewhat helpful to actual domain experts, but that is it.
But the LLM fans think that the synthesis aspect is pretty good as well. It is not, at least to anybody that is a domain expert. My guess would be these people cannot perform on professional level either and hence think that slop is just fine. For example, the only mostly adequate code that LLMs can write is attack code from patches or patch-notes, because that is use-once, throw-away code. For anything else, as long as it is not beginner's level, an actual expert has to request in detail what is needed and make sure it is all there. At realistic token prices, that seems to be a lot more expensive than to have an expert write the code and that does not include the cost of low quality aspects that are not immediately obvious, like LLM code being long, hard to read and hard to review.
There is no reason to expect drastic cost reductions either. The current LLM business models need growth-rates they cannot get in the real world. Most of the current providers will crash and vanish. The rest will drastically reduce what they offer or charge prices that make most uses for synthesis non-viable.
Add that we will very likely find other serious drawbacks of having LLMs write things. This tech is on "demo" level currently and the demo was scaled up beyond all reason. Maybe it will deliver something reasonable in the synthesis use-case in 20 years, but that is not assured at all and not only because the inevitable crash long before.