I like how you pretend that such a transition will be manageable by some "countries" such that unemployment won't be that high. How will countries manage the transition?
Multiple essays on the subject are freely available. Responsible governments are already tuned into the field, and some have their own working groups to research potential policy direction. Some examples of concrete steps that a government could take:
- start applying wage insurance to budgets today, which would mean a tax increase. But tax increases are likely already on the table because the projections for funding existing unemployment insurance point upward, not downward.
- As above, but specifically for short-term work. The state can subsidize wages when companies temporarily reduce hours, this compliments laws that prohibit mass layoffs.
- legislation that seeks to balance how companies use AI. how much they pay workers. what percentage of human versus AI is doing the work. Difficult to legislate perfectly, although doing better than nothing is within reach for most governments of the world. This is already done in countries that require workplace co-determination through a works council, and I see no reason the same process would not also apply to AI in the workplace.
- some of the churn can be mitigated by placing workers from dying industries into vocational or college programs to retrain. Part of this is you get a worker that is more valuable to your economy. But the big short-term advantage is you have someone who would have normally been unemployed and idle is now attending an education program. They are at least busy, even if they are immediately providing revenue for the government (actually they cost quite a bit short term)
- public capital ownership. total left-field Marxism here, but if the public hold part or total ownership of AI resources (equipment, networks, data centers, power, etc). Then the public receives the benefit of its growth and contribution to GDP instead of all that going into the hands of a few. How AI is used becomes a public concern and forces transparency into a currently very opaque industry.
Not with AI and robotics! "Your government" no longer means human government, it means property of Peter Thiel.
I doubt these billionaires are smart enough to keep a persistent rabble at bay indefinitely. Cracking open a history book shows the 19th and 20th century had plenty of sabotage, arson, kidnappings, and more on the extreme end. And if you've tuned into the news at all this week, apparently a honeytrap is a viable option for getting access to billionaires and AI.
Billionaires don't want "rent", they want to own it all, they have no intention of being "employers" that "pay you less", they are taking everything, your home, your food, your lives. AI replaces you, you get nothing. Excited about the government managing the transition though!
Techno-feudalism or Rentier capitalism where a few own everything, including every aspect of your life, while having zero responsibility for those lives. I think we're on the road going in that direction, but we haven't arrived (yet).