Comment Re:A lot of them are weird religious schools (Score 2) 146
I teach at $stateuniversity. We have been expecting this for years. For us the number of 18 years old has peaked in 2023 I think. And the enrollment prediction of freshman in the state are within 2% of the prediction we made in 2019 purely based on population.
Ironically, we are getting more students. What is happening is that when the total number of student regionally decreases, we did not lose student. But hyper local small universities lost students to us. We admitted the same fraction of students give or take, but a higher fraction of student came to us rather than a tiny school so our yield went up. Also some local universities had to shut programs down and the students who would have gone there are going to us instead.
The dynamics is interesting.
Now I am not saying that other factors aren't part of the equation. But if you ANOVA it, I bet it's 95% an effect of number of 18 year olds.