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Comment Re: Venture Capitalists are not Financial Advisors (Score 1) 61

Financial advisors generally make money too. It's hard not to. The proper question is whether they make more money than a cheaper algorithm would.

Public market financial advisors don't. It has been demonstrated over and over, including at least one study using actual monkeys throwing things (which probably isn't cheaper, given how expensive lab monkeys are).

It's plausible that certain VCs, operating in markets they know a lot about, do. I doubt the average does though. The very fact that they talk about the "power law" implies the investment picking is no better than random. The VC does provide a service the public market financial advisor doesn't though: it's quite a bit more difficult to find and invest in startups than it is to just buy an index fund.

Comment Re:did it tell them to sacrifice their first born (Score 2) 97

Christianity really wants to be monotheistic, so the Jewish god is the Christian god, his son is really himself, and there's this ghost involved too, but it is also the same. Not *the same* of course, they kicked a dude out for saying that, but the same. Oh, and don't say that what Jesus said is incompatible with what that god guy said, because that got another dude kicked out.

Comment Re:So? (Score 1) 64

You're nicely illustrating the issue with AI reasoning. Humans "reason" mostly by deciding what they believe then coming up with truthy stories to support that belief. When confronted with actual conflicting evidence or proper reasoning to the contrary, they make up more stories to "rationalize" it, or, that failing, make excuses.

The reasoning systems are generally made up of an LLM, a bunch of more general purpose neural network layers, and some conventional logic systems. The neural network part comes up with what it thinks is true based on its training, tries to get its logic systems to support it, and, as we've seen, often ignores the result when it doesn't like it.

The problem with AI "reasoning" is that it's a pretty good copy of human "reasoning."

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