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Comment Beware of biomarkers and false positives (Score 1) 21

First, the test “measures amyloid and tau biomarkers” and such biomarkers don’t always lead to Alzheimer’s.

Second, the 97 percent “accuracy” cited in the article is about correctly detecting the biomarkers and can be very misleading without also accounting for false positives.

Specifically, even if we assume the biomarkers are definitive, and we also assume that 11 percent of the population will develop Alzheimer’s by age 82, then an 8 percent false-positive rate would mean that roughly 40 percent of positive results in the general population could be false positives. This is a rough calculation using an 8 percent false-positive rate based on my (admittedly limited) research.

To be truly helpful and strongly predictive, the test should be used in conjunction with other tests - such as cognitive quizzes.

Comment Re:And they have a really important supporter (Score 1) 99

Here's your explanation:
1. Citizens United is an abomination, foisted upon the country by a conservative court majority that feels money == speech, because they know lots of people with shitloads of money that agree with them
2. This court similarly has made untold amounts of money from unknown sources perfectly fine in politics. Who gets the biggest advantage? Republicans.
3. Musk already tried to buy an election (Wisconsin supreme court), and lost bigger than if he had kept his nose out of it. And now he's facing election law violations for his efforts. Money isn't everything in politics when the electorate is pissed off - for another example, see the Florida Democratic Primary where the guy who had name recognition and spent 5x his opponent lost to a SOCIALIST. In Florida!

 

Comment Re:Biased news from the start (Score 1) 100

> Erik Brynjolfsson. Working with researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab

A "news" article, supposedly unbiased, quoting an expert who works with the people whose job it is to research, get paid for, and promote AI technology. A major newspaper should know better than to quote a person who profits from AI about whether or not AI is good for regular people's job prospects. And take into consideration that the Washington Post is owned by something which sells AI based cloud services.

We must strike a balance that avoids binary thinking - as a lazy application of such logic would have us broad brushing out most of the folks that are most familiar with the problem. Don’t forget that the original Luddites were actually industry insiders who were opposed by other industry insiders. The Luddites were experts in operating older loom technology and, by the way, were folks that simultaneously mostly didn’t care, at all, that their cotton came from slave labor - slave labor that was replaced by more tech! And there’s already some evidence that Erik’s right. Past predictions of a precipitous LLM job apocalypse haven’t been borne out by the numbers. The current job market isn’t great yet it’s far from terrible.

Time will tell, but this could mean that the apocalyptical predictions are being driven by a similar type of Malthusian analysis to that which predicted mass food shortages, mineral shortages, and oil shortages. What actually happened? An unprecedented rise in world prosperity and a corresponding unprecedented drop in world poverty. Roughly 80 percent of the world was experiencing deep poverty in 1800, 40 percent in 1970, and 10 percent today.

This isn’t just an idle point, as one of the most common “solutions” being advanced to counter Erik’s claims that we aren’t in the midst of an apocalypse is to discard the enlightenment blueprint that brought us this rising trajectory. This includes sidelining proven ideals like blind justice, free speech, decentralization, empirical analysis, and property rights. Such “solutions” routinely recommend a replacement of enlightenment empirical analysis with something based on binary narrative style analysis. But the latter has, unfortunately for the world, consistently yielded a failed trajectory: impoverishment accompanied by a censorious totalitarian elite tasked with seizing private property and redistributing it.

Comment Re:Kremlin surveillance (Score -1) 43

Would make sense. Back when my karma was Excellent, I suddenly stopped receiving any mod points, so I have not been able to mod. About a year later, I dropped to Terrible. Rarely, it goes up to Bad for 2 days, then back to Terrible, even when I make no comments.

So yeah, someone is definitely manipulating the system. I suspect most people not on the far left is not getting mod points anymore, and there's probably a script that runs often to mod down the sane people. I wouldn't bet on a hack, just a malicious actor.

Comment Re:Slippery Slope (Score 2) 300

The whole thing is bullshit, because for it to be evidence of a crime, there has to be an actual crime to investigate.

Where's the probable cause?
Where's the due process?
Why is he being charged with obstruction of justice, when there is no predicate crime to investigate? Evidence of fucking what?

Unless they can answer that, this goes the same way as the Subway sandwich assault guy, the olympian reflecting pool vandal, and the seashells prosecution of Director Comey.

Comment Re:This isn't the EU. He's going to win. (Score 5, Interesting) 300

Yes. Here is why:

If the police are at your door with a warrant, they have already shown sufficient probable cause to a judge to show that a search warrant is justified. Due process is being followed.

If the police are demanding your password, you as a citizen of the United States have a constitutional right under the 5th amendment, and under legal precedent (Doe v United States, 1988) to tell them to go fuck themselves:

The Foundational Doctrine: "Testimonial" vs. "Physical" Evidence
Under the Fifth Amendment, the government cannot compel a person to make an incriminating testimonial communication.

The Safe Combination Metaphor (Doe v. United States, 1988):
The Supreme Court drew a famous distinction regarding self-incrimination: Compelling a suspect to surrender the physical key to a lockbox is permissible because it is physical, non-testimonial evidence. Compelling a suspect to reveal the combination to a wall safe violates the Fifth Amendment because it forces the suspect to surrender the "contents of their own mind".

Application to Passwords: Most courts treat an alphanumeric passcode or PIN as the modern equivalent of a safe combination. Recalling and providing it requires cognitive effort and confirms knowledge, ownership, and control over the device and its contents.

Grabbing some dude's phone at the border under the guise of border control, when that dude is a US citizen and has shown documented proof; and then demanding his password to unlock it is a violation of his 5th Amendment rights. Moreover, there was no probable cause for the seizure of property, and without a court order for the retrieval of evidence (a search warrant) it remains his non-legally-encumbered property to do with as he pleases, including giving them the password that is a metaphorical string tied between the doorknob and a shotgun trigger.

There was no crime for them to investigate, and therefore no probable cause to issue the illegal search. There was no court order from a Constitutionally empowered judge to approve agents of the government trampling this man's rights.

HTH.

Comment Re:Shocked! (Score 2) 56

Yes, we should all be surprised that a tool created to increase efficiency at which documentation can be produced with little human input, indeed increases the efficiency at which documentation can be produced with little human input.

And when you take the tool away, the human that only knows how to use the tool is as useless as a broken tool.

Comment Re:China virtually eliminated homicide (Score 0) 59

This is a country of somewhere between 700M-1.4B people. How do you think they can keep such detailed track of crime rates per unit population if they have no clue how many Chinese people there are?

Statistics in China is they're completely fabricated at every level. The CCP sets quotas for the regional governments, the regional governments set them for local governments, and they all pretend to have met or beaten them every year.

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