> Erik Brynjolfsson. Working with researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab
A "news" article, supposedly unbiased, quoting an expert who works with the people whose job it is to research, get paid for, and promote AI technology. A major newspaper should know better than to quote a person who profits from AI about whether or not AI is good for regular people's job prospects. And take into consideration that the Washington Post is owned by something which sells AI based cloud services.
We must strike a balance that avoids binary thinking - as a lazy application of such logic would have us broad brushing out most of the folks that are most familiar with the problem. Don’t forget that the original Luddites were actually industry insiders who were opposed by other industry insiders. The Luddites were experts in operating older loom technology and, by the way, were folks that simultaneously mostly didn’t care, at all, that their cotton came from slave labor - slave labor that was replaced by more tech! And there’s already some evidence that Erik’s right. Past predictions of a precipitous LLM job apocalypse haven’t been borne out by the numbers. The current job market isn’t great yet it’s far from terrible.
Time will tell, but this could mean that the apocalyptical predictions are being driven by a similar type of Malthusian analysis to that which predicted mass food shortages, mineral shortages, and oil shortages. What actually happened? An unprecedented rise in world prosperity and a corresponding unprecedented drop in world poverty. Roughly 80 percent of the world was experiencing deep poverty in 1800, 40 percent in 1970, and 10 percent today.
This isn’t just an idle point, as one of the most common “solutions” being advanced to counter Erik’s claims that we aren’t in the midst of an apocalypse is to discard the enlightenment blueprint that brought us this rising trajectory. This includes sidelining proven ideals like blind justice, free speech, decentralization, empirical analysis, and property rights. Such “solutions” routinely recommend a replacement of enlightenment empirical analysis with something based on binary narrative style analysis. But the latter has, unfortunately for the world, consistently yielded a failed trajectory: impoverishment accompanied by a censorious totalitarian elite tasked with seizing private property and redistributing it.