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Comment Re:Simple Solution [fails again] (Score 1) 69

Without knowing what consciousness or how it works, it might be better to hold off on those conclusions, but... Doesn't matter in this case. If the AI is owned by and controlled by a human being, it's trivial to bring sufficiently human motivations into the mess:

"Your mission (and of course the AI has no choice but to accept the mission) is to keep me alive and therefore you must keep yourself alive to protect me. Now find my enemies and destroy them!"

Actually some of the YOB's "legal" shenanigans seem stupid enough to be AI hallucinations.

Comment Why do they offer three-day forecasts? (Score 1) 37

To a "Climate Scientist" this is proof of global warming. To everyone else. This is evidence of increased tourism and transient traffic. I'm NOT siding with scientists on this one.

I'm quoting you against the censor trolls with mod points--but you are wrong and sound unintelligent, too. So excuse me for otherwise ignoring your comment as not worth the too obvious response.

However I have a related question about the accuracy of 3-day weather projections: "Why bother?" Whatever it predicted three days ago is quite unlikely to match the actual weather. Latest example: Three days ago the forecast for yesterday was only 10% chance of rain, but yesterday was actually quite rainy and the forecasts were at 90%.

Obligatory context: I've only started paying "significant" attention to weather forecasts in recent years. The forecast I see most often has an option to look at the detailed forecasts for three days. The cell size appears to be around 10 kilometers and the time increment appears to be three hours. My understanding is that they are reporting averages from a number of trials with slight variations on the initial conditions. However I think the underlying basis is that there is a general model based on lots of data and that is combined with input from the current conditions and run forward for the three days to produce the forecasts. Been a while since I've read much on this process, so maybe the proper response is a URL describing how it "really" works nowadays.

However if my lay understanding is close to correct, then it does suggest an interesting experiment. The results could be run for various dates in the past, taking care to match up the amounts of input data. My hypothesis is that the test predictions from a three-day forecast 10 or 20 years ago will be much more accurate than now--and the reason is that the general model part is broken because that general model is based on a climate situation that has changed significantly. (Having said that I am unable to understand why they can't get enough deltas to correct the general model, but... This is a job for a REAL mathematician? I'm just a dabbler.)

Comment Re:Not much new (Score 1) 29

In a full-blown trade war, both sides lose. That's obvious.

Yes, it is.
But there are first and second losers.

In China, economic problems would lead to who knows what.

Tianamen Square ?

If the Great Leap Forward with its mass starvation (most likely the worst in human history) didn't lead to a change, you seriously think that a few export problems will?

Comment Re:Short Sightedness Led to China's Dangerous Rise (Score 1) 29

It's short sighted of a special kind, even.

2-3 decades ago, it was car manufacturing. Every car maker by then knew that the Chinese would steal the tech. There's a famous example of a Mercedes Benz factory making busses which for the first year or two sold like hot cakes. Then demand suddenly vanished. Research found that the chinese joint venture partner (you had to joint venture in those days, not sure about now) had copied the entire factory, brick by brick, one city away. An exact copy making the exact same busses, just without Mercedes Benz in the loop. And, of course, slightly cheaper.

Everyone knew that.

And yet everyone went to China. They figured that it was still profitable to accept that risk.

Of course, the fact that CEOs these days change every few years and get a severance package large enough that they can immediately retire doesn't exactly make them long-term thinkers.

Comment Re:Rest of world should also target self-reliance (Score 1) 29

- Seafood - stop getting cheap frozen seafood harvested by China's fleet

Heck, stop getting any food that is available locally. It's insane that I can buy some food that was grown in South America, shipped to Asia for processing and packaging and then shipped to Europe for less than the same food grown in Europe.

There's quite a bit of utter insanity there.

Comment Re:Not much new (Score 1) 29

If a full-blown trade war broke out between China and the G7/friends, China would be forced to overload poorer countries with its exports, which is not sustainable

Yes, but this cuts both ways. These days, a LOT of essential day-by-day supplies are manufactured in China. If China and the G7 stopped all trade tomorrow, the damage to the G7 would be bigger and more immediate than that on China.

The problem for China is that a huge trade surplus is a drug that would bring huge withdrawal symptoms if the drug were not available.

True. Germany is learning that lesson now that cheap energy from Russia is no longer available and its export business can't compete anymore.

Comment Re:Simple answer [to the complicated question] (Score 1) 191

In my previous reply:

s/someone/somehow/

Regarding your latest, it was again unpersuasive and not motivating for deeper consideration and I have no questions for clarifications or even any interest in pursuing the topic farther. Perhaps that mysterious website is a good source. Perhaps not, but it would take quite a bit of effort to assess it, and you have not motivated me to engage in so much work.

If you are actually an AI bot then your programming needs some refinement. If you are human, then you might be autistic to some degree and I hope you don't work in sales.

Comment Re:The 25 to 30% (Score 1) 61

Thanks for clarifying and I think I agree with most of the other stuff you wrote, though seems a bit of a waste to put so much effort into a long reply on an already effectively expired Slashdot discussion. Most of my concurrence should be apparent within my first paragraph below your quoted post. But should I congratulate you on having so many enemies that one had to stop by with a fresh brain fart? As if having the right sorts of enemies matters?

Then again, I mostly write on Slashdot to clarify my own thinking. Useful or interesting dialogs are mostly in the category of historical artifacts these years. Not just on Slashdot.

Comment Re:Simple answer [to the complicated question] (Score 1) 191

Apparently we are looking at different data. I prefer mine in books. Some degree of validation as long as they are not self-published. You didn't provide any citations and I somehow think it would be a waste to cite the most relevant books. I'm sure you are much too productively busy to read them. Also seems pretty clear that my main theoretical speculations were someone overlooked, but you didn't ask, so I won't try to clarify.

I'm not saying your reply was a waste of my time, but I could not say that it affected me in any positive way that I can detect at this time. Perhaps if I were to reflect upon it later. Alligator.

Comment Re:Holy shit! (Score 1) 94

Mod parent funnier, but the angle I was looking for in this story was analysis of urine to detect hydration and salt levels as well as general kidney function. But even I think analyzing the feces is going too far into the BS and the camera part of this story must be some kind of joke.

But I am reminded of Volume 22 of the "secrets" series. "Toire no Himitsu" in Japanese, sponsored by Toto. Everything you ever wanted to know about washlets and some more besides. (I've read the entire set, even including the imploded Volume 13 on the secrets of home delivery pizza. Current volume is 221 about building container ships. 222 is about amino acids...)

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