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Comment Re:Bolsonaro not conceding (Score 1) 79

If you actually look at reports from some of the more reputable media, both Lula's and Bolsanoro's teams asked for the extension.

While it doesn't seem likely last minute 2 hour extension could have changed the results this was not fair to voters given the extensions were not implemented uniformly across all polling locations. Some locations had already closed up and shut off their machines.

Comment Re:Where does all the money come from? (Score 4, Insightful) 70

Billions, not trillions. Two trillion is what you get when you multiply the hypothetical share price by the number of shares. They'll just sell a small fraction of them.

What I've heard is a market cap well north of a trillion dollars is expected.

And yes, people do it all the time. Notable examples include Amazon, Uber, etc. Most American companies are not profitable at IPO:

It's not just the losing money aspect by itself that is concerning. People could overlook this when they foresee a credible prospect for turn around. It is losing money combined with being a commodity + rapid obsolescence that seems strange to me. There does not as far as I can see seem to be much in the way of being reasonably able to predicting any sort of future for Anthropic.

Comment Where does all the money come from? (Score 1) 70

Are people really going to put trillions of dollars into a company that has never made a profit and continues losing billions of dollars annually? A company whose current technology has no mote and will be obsoleted in mere months?

I've never been good at understanding markets. During the .com era found myself as bewildered by the crazy math going around as I am today. At least my strategic reserves of popcorn were put to good use.

Comment Re:Not sure why OP thinks storage is corrupt (Score 1) 68

However, whence I implemented ZFS scrubs every 2 weeks, the corruption stopped, COLD. I have not had to restore any file, (due to on disk corruption), in over 6 years!!! And yes, I really mean that non-redundant media pool that has 2.1TBs used. My conclusion is that reading the used storage blocks caused the mSATA SSD & laptop HDD to find any marginal blocks. Then apply their internal ECC, before bad data could be supplied to ZFS.

This is strange. SSDs are supposed to have scrubbers that periodically scan for this and rewrite leaky blocks internally.

Comment Re: AI use is like drugs (Score 1) 89

Since you still don't understand words, a discussion can involve counter-arguments ... that doesn't make the discussion an argument.

Questioning something and pushing back with your own counter arguments is called arguing.

arguing: "to give reasons for or against something"
https://www.merriam-webster.co...

It doesn't matter how nice you are or how you elect to characterize the activity itself ... these types of interactions /w LLMs are a waste of time.

When you refused to consider any counter-arguments, and made it obvious that you aren't about to even try to do what I suggested before coming back doubling down on your ignorance, it was clear that you don't know how to have a discussion which merely reinforced my original point.

All I said was arguing with LLMs is a waste of time and you immediately responded with derisive commentary and continued to do so.

For this reason I am going to conclude with a shorter version of my attempt to shut down the very useless argument that you assume AI is only capable of, when clearly it is you that is only capable of it.

It is a well known fact LLMs have no meta-cognition. There is no internal mechanism that allows for it.

"We find no evidence for significant verbalised individuated metacognition in any tested domain"
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.242...
https://www.nature.com/article...

That's the projection you aren't smart enough to see even after it has been pointed out to you. Off you go now ...

LOL leave it to the one who doesn't know what the word "arguing" means to judge the intelligence of others.

Comment Re: AI use is like drugs (Score 2) 89

You are projecting.

You: "If you question something it says push back with your own counter-arguments."

Me: "It is hard to imagine a bigger waste of time than arguing with an LLM."

You: "The fact that you think having a conversation and an argument are the same thing tells us everything we need to know about you."

Yes, I am absolutely projecting the words you yourself just used back in your face.

Now kindly go bury your head in the sand since you have, if nothing else, broadcasted that you don't know anything about AI and aren't about to gather any facts or experience that might educate you on the subject.

Did AI help you write this or did you come up with it all by yourself?

Comment Re: AI use is like drugs (Score 3, Insightful) 89

The fact that you think having a conversation and an argument are the same thing tells us everything we need to know about you.

Your own words "If you question something it says push back with your own counter-arguments." this is called arguing. You yourself use the word "arguments". Do you think if you converse your "counter-arguments" with it nicely and diplomatically so as to not hurt its feelings the experience will be more useful?

LLMs have no meta-cognition of any kind whatsoever. They don't know what they know. They don't know what they don't know. They don't even know what know is.

Comment Re:AI use is like drugs (Score 1) 89

There is your problem right there. You think AI is a search tool. Obviously if you don't know anything about AI, and think it is a search tool, you won't benefit from it. To start with, start having conversations instead of looking for answers. Learn to use it to research. If you question something it says push back with your own counter-arguments. Stop believing the "AI is just a token predictor" nonsense and you will quickly realize that it posses the ability to reason and can function as a very well informed counterpart to bounce ideas off of and learn knew things.

It is hard to imagine a bigger waste of time than arguing with an LLM.

Comment Re:Excellent news (Score 1) 89

1. Ng, Pan & Wilson (1998) Ãf" Most businesses saw no revenue benefit ÃfoeA majority (56%) indicated that their presence on the World Wide Web did not produce any noticeable change in their turnoverÃf The study also found that approximately 31% reported increased turnover, while 13% could not identify an effect. Citation: Ng, H.-I., Pan, Y. J., & Wilson, T. D. (1998). Business Use of the World Wide Web: A Report on Further Investigations. International Journal of Information Management, 18(5), 291Ãf"314, p. 310. Information Research Full paper (PDF)

I'm not sure using revenue as a metric is all that relevant. It is possible for AI to radically increase or decrease labor productivity and yet a corporation still take in the same revenue.

2. Hitt & Brynjolfsson (1996) Ãf" IT investments did not necessarily increase profitability ÃfoeHowever, we do not find evidence that these benefits have resulted in supranormal business profitability.Ãf The researchers examined IT investments at 370 large firms. They found productivity gains and benefits to consumers, but no evidence of above-normal profits attributable to IT investments. Citation: Hitt, L. M., & Brynjolfsson, E. (1996). Productivity, Business Profitability, and Consumer Surplus: Three Different Measures of Information Technology Value. MIS Quarterly, 20(2), 121Ãf"142. Iecon Paper and abstract

3. Subramani & Walden (2001) Ãf" Internet initiatives increased stock market valuations ÃfoeThe results suggest that e-commerce initiatives do indeed lead to significant positive CARs for firms' shareholders.Ãf Studying 251 e-commerce announcements from late 1998, the researchers found positive abnormal stock returns ranging from 4.9% to 23.4% across different subsamples. However, these were stock market gains reflecting expectations of future profitability, not demonstrated increases in operating profits. Citation: Subramani, M., & Walden, E. (2001). The Impact of E-Commerce Announcements on the Market Value of Firms. Information Systems Research, 12(2), 135Ãf"154. PubsOnLine Full paper (PDF)

Same problem with regards to profit albeit more relevant than revenue. It is possible for labor productivity to increase yet not translate into profitability due to other factors... competitive pressures (e.g. competitors making the same investments) and contravening costs.

I think the bottom line of whether AI is in aggregate helpful should be measured in terms of labor productivity. In IT when it comes down to it you end up playing shell games with value. While you can give people capabilities and insights they might not otherwise have reliance and changes within IT and personal skill sets erodes other capabilities that may well have offered similar streams of value. People generally seem to be terrible at reasoning about opportunity costs.

Decades ago I loved watching our accounting people navigate TUIs from their keyboards.. they could do anything in seconds.. it went so fast the screen was a blur... Did the fancy slow as shit web version of what replaced the ancient software increase productivity? Somehow I doubt it. Just look around at basic groupware / messaging... basic functionality to support productivity seems to be at best an afterthought. What matters most is how shiny and fancy UX is and ease of use. Not actual responsiveness or productivity. How anything can be slow as shit given the hardware available today sometimes I have trouble believing.

Studies in the social sciences invariably prove what is popular. Watch, you'll see, and they consistently lean luddite.

Or maybe diminishing returns associated with new technology means more than you think it does.

They resent new capabilities changing the world more than their 'insights' ever do. New capabilities are what change the world

The computer I am typing this on is alien technology compared to what was available when I started. I remember when major national backbones had less capacity than the fiber CE in our home. While the underlying technology is amazing there has always been this layer of value taking, sleaze and laziness that has mostly nullified extraction of even incremental value amongst the masses from improved technology.

The transformer based AI from a technology perspective is something I never imagined I would live to see. It is by all rights fucking insane compared to what existed before it. While useful and all I'm not even sure on balance this actually translates to a net benefit. What do you even do with something that is completely untrustworthy and often spews nonsense? What of the considerable collateral damage the technology is enabling?

AI to me is kind of like a self driving car... it would be one thing if the car actually drove itself and didn't require a licensed driver to sit behind the wheel and dedicate their full undivided attention to making sure the car doesn't do something stupid... yet no such thing at present exists.

Too much technology is squandered on race to the bottom path of least resistance garbage the tech industry keeps shitting out having adopted business models indistinguishable from the malware vendors of old.

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