Its really weird. If you look at where the school, and neighboring barracks are. The line between the school and the barracks directly lines up to where the carrier is parked in the strait of hormuz. Ok. So that lines up with the possibility that the missile overshot the target. That happens from time to time, even the best weapons systems have targetting whoopsies.
The problem is the school was hit Twice with a "double tap" kill-the-survivors hit. That meant it overshot twice? Less likely.
The bit that weirds me out, is that any reasonable intelligence analysis , on account of being a reasonable human being , would go. "OK we see the target. Problem is its next to a school full of children" (The school is marked on google maps, it wasnt a secret). So the logical solution is you hit it at night when all them kids are at home. No dead children to mess up the narrative or give the missile loaders PTSD.
So yeah, definite incompetence SOMEWHERE. It is plausible indeed that the AI chose the target and it wasn't bright enough to go "Ok, theres kids in danger with this strike, escalate this to a human with some suggested actions to minimize civilian lifes. Even worse is the possibility that it did, and Captain fuck-face said "I dont care, fire anyway".