Comment Re:Likely-erroneous assumptions (Score 3, Interesting) 128
But it's also very possible that they're going to miss the boat. Not completely, of course, but somewhat like Microsoft missed the boat on the Internet.
So...Microsoft certainly didn't get the massive market share AOL had in the 90's, and they weren't too successful at getting the "walled garden" they were probably hoping for around that time...but they did just fine. Azure isn't *quite* AWS, but they're doing better than Google in IaaS revenue, and they spent most of the 00's and 2010's running the business world with desktop Windows and Windows Server - alongside Linux and not at super massive scale, granted, but they did just fine.
Where I think Apple's opportunity comes in is to replay the iPod playbook. There were a bunch of MP3 players before the iPod, and most of them had trouble once Napster fell. Apple ran the 2000's on the iPod not just because of the hardware, but because of iTunes and the iTunes Music Store, making it possible to use both existing MP3 libraries and to create new ones, easily, legally, and virus-free.
I think that playbook can work here as well. I've got two computers with GPUs, one an RTX3060 and one an AMD 9060XT. Not flagships by any means, but enough to run local models well-enough. My Macbook issued to me by work has an M5 CPU, and it generates tokens within 20% as quickly as those cards, on battery. If Apple can conjure up some sort of AI App Store that serves up AI models and purpose-built apps for them, that run on Apple hardware with no subscription tied to them, and make the process smooth, seamless, and generally-useful, Apple can probably stand on OpenAI's shoulders and make a local AI laptop that's worth owning...and if they can do that, they can profit at the endpoint level without having to invest billions at the datacenter level like OpenAI and Anthropic are doing.
The Vision Pro, I think, would work well if they sold it as a business tool - diagram overlays, status windows, that sort of thing...but fashion accessories that obscure the face are VERY difficult to make work; people wear contact lenses because they prefer those to face-obscuring glasses that correct their vision. As a video game console or a work utility that's put on for a function and then turned off, there's a niche, but it's not going to be the sort of thing people just walk around wearing.