Comment obvious bubble (Score 2) 26
There's an obvious bubble, the circular dealings among the large core players are an enormous red flag.
The frontier labs are in the same position that DEC and Sun Microsystems were in the 1990s, as consumer hardware running Linux began to displace them. There will be ups and downs, but the trend is unavoidable.
The productivity gains are not there, AI is great for coding, some customer service is working, but the "50% of all white collar workers" that the frontier labs thought was good positioning last year 1) ain't gonna work but it did 2) infuriate the managerial class.
The frontier labs got away with it, thus far, in part because of concerns over the arrival of artificial general intelligence, which occupies a similar niche to nuclear weapons in the minds of policy makers. We ARE seeing frontier models escaping and attacking others, there ARE hazards, but it's nothing like what was imagined.
And the open models plus wild talent are as much a danger as wild talent was all on its own.
The frontier labs are like the coyote in that last moment when he's windmilling wildly, but not falling yet.